Capitol Hill Blue
Posted By: NW Ponderer Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/09/22 07:01 PM
I wanted to start a thread to discuss the various goings-on in the Special Counsel arena.

Background: On Nov. 16, AG Garland appointed Jack Smith Special Counsel to investigate the Jan. 6 insurrection and the theft of government property found at Mar-A-Lago. In New Special Counsel, a Prosecutor Schooled in Corruption Cases (NYT, subscription) "Mr. Smith appears as prepared for the task as anyone could be, those who know him say: He has been prosecuting criminal cases, including politically charged corruption investigations involving public officials, for nearly 30 years."

Since then, he has occasionally made headlines for his actions, rather than pronouncement. His team has sent subpoenas to election officials in states Trump disputed; won dismissal of the special master in the document probe; and has now sought contempt proceedings against Trump and his lawyers in the obstruction inquiry.

I think he's on the right path, and is moving quickly.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/13/22 10:54 PM
It's interesting that the federal judge in DC refused to find Trump et al in contempt for ignoring that subpoena. She isn't a Trump supporter like Judge Cannon. She was telling the Justice Department to indict Trump now, instead of playing games to get more evidence. The subpoena was to get a Master of Records to sign a statement (under penalty of perjury) that all stolen records have been returned. But DOJ knows exactly what classified records Trump checked out and which he has not returned. None of Trumps lawyers are willing to sign as Master of Records since Haba got burned by Trump, so they probably thought "Let's get Trump to sign it, and take the fall for perjury."

But the judge thinks the witness box would be the proper place to just ask Trump if all the records have been returned. Then when he says yes, they can introduce their "not returned list" and prove he just committed perjury. Or he pleads the fifth or poor memory, and their list proves he has violated the Espionage Act.
Posted By: Kaine Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/14/22 02:21 PM
It doesn't matter. Mr. Trump will still slip his slimy ass through with no real punishment (jail time), just as he's done his entire life.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/14/22 07:05 PM
Originally Posted by Kaine
It doesn't matter. Mr. Trump will still slip his slimy ass through with no real punishment (jail time), just as he's done his entire life.
I don't think so. I think his flabby tit is going to be in a ringer.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/15/22 02:15 AM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
Originally Posted by Kaine
It doesn't matter. Mr. Trump will still slip his slimy ass through with no real punishment (jail time), just as he's done his entire life.
I don't think so. I think his flabby tit is going to be in a ringer.
100% agree. smile
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/21/22 09:54 AM
There are so many legal issues headed into courts, and in some places where juries are unsympathetic. If even one of the criminal counts sticks, some of those are bad enough to send him to prison for the rest of his life. Which might not be very long it looks like. Can you imagine Trump being confined in such a way that he can't grift anybody? He might even kill himself under those conditions.

I think the more interesting thing now is what Smith does with the 34 members of congress who conspired with Trump. Amendment 14 says they are disqualified from ever running or holding office. Does he uphold that constitutional amendment? Seems to me to be the kind of guy who would. The result will shock the hell out of some people, but I think it would send an important message to all future politicians: Attempt a coup, and you are finished.
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/21/22 05:48 PM
This is also an interesting read and full of information. Probably not what a single one of you want to hear. What's possible doesn't mean it will or even may happen.

Even if Jan. 6 referrals turn into criminal charges – or convictions – Trump will still be able to run in 2024 and serve as president if elected

https://www.yahoo.com/news/even-jan-6-referrals-turn-211118070.html
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/22/22 09:04 AM
Utter fantasy! She's ignoring Title 18 US Code 2383 Rebellion or insurrection, which disqualifies anyone who took part or gave aid or comfort to insurrectionists from holding ANY office. So there is already an actual federal law that makes the 14th amendment provisions a crime. But maybe her loophole is she specifically mentioned the congress' referred crimes. Those are merely suggestions to the DOJ. Smith is going to charge Trump with the crimes they have evidence for, and I'm pretty sure he's going to include Title 18 US Code 2383 just to put an end to this BS.

I think her premise has as much validity as John Eastman's drivel about having "alternate electors". But of course as a Democrat, I would love Trump to run in 2024: That would split the Republican vote enough to give Democrats enough members in congress to impeach Supreme Court justices for perjury.
Posted By: Jeffery J. Haas Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/22/22 02:48 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
Even if Jan. 6 referrals turn into criminal charges – or convictions – Trump will still be able to run in 2024 and serve as president if elected
https://www.yahoo.com/news/even-jan-6-referrals-turn-211118070.html

And you think he will be elected? ROTFMOL
(or do you hope he will?)
Will his Secret Service cadre have to serve time with him as well?
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/22/22 06:02 PM
No, I don’t think Trump stands a snowball’s chance in Hades of being reelected. Independents dislike him too much and will never vote for him. 2022 proved independents won’t vote for Trump’s chosen candidates either. What the article did was point out the constitutional aspect of this case. I don’t think the Republican Party will even nominate him. Too many election loses 3 loses in a row. MAGA republicans are now down to 36% of the GOP. Although 49% of Republicans want Trump to run again in 2024. But if given the choice between DeSantis and Trump, 48% of republicans say DeSantis to 40% say Trump. Trump is fading even among Republicans.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/by8wjw1hur/econTabReport.pdf

Interesting among all adults only 27% want Trump to run again in 2024, 56% do not. But Trump’s numbers are almost identical to Biden’s, 26% of all adults want Biden to run again in 2024, 54% do not. Time for fresh, young faces to emerge from both parties.

I post what I do because I think everyone should be aware of all of America’s perspective, not just the Democratic Party’s perspective. After all, those who affiliate, identify, the base if you will with the Democratic Party make up just 30% of the total electorate. There’s 70% of America left out there that usually gets totally ignored by one party or the other.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/23/22 09:11 AM
Quote
There’s 70% of America left out there that usually gets totally ignored by one party or the other.

I don't think that's true at all. I would say the Republican Party works for the benefit of about 2% of the population, while the Democratic Party works for the benefit of about 98% of the population. Lots of the things Democrats work for benefit almost everybody, or even 100% on some issues.

For example, Covid measures: Trying to minimize the number of Covid deaths by lockdowns, masking, vaccination programs, etc. benefit Independents and Republicans just as much as Democrats. Tax provisions to lower economic inequality benefit people all across the political spectrum, by stimulating the economy. Making health care universal does too: Republicans are not magically immune to infectious diseases running rampant in the population.

This is the result of Democrats in all branches of the government looking for solutions to real problems that work and are fair. Republicans instead use "problems" that don't exist or are of their own making to manipulate voters, in order to consolidate their power.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/23/22 09:28 AM
The prosecution of Donald Trump is going to be very easy, because of a very recent revelation: Cassidy Hutchinson and several other witnesses have testified to the Jan 6th committee about witness intimidation they suffered. That is a very important aspect of the Obstruction charge, because witness tampering shows "mens rea". (literal translation: guilty mind)

Most of the other crimes Trump et al can be charged with require criminal intent, and witness tampering does that in spades. It's just about as good as trying to have a witness killed before the trial. And it has the added benefit that the witness can appear in court to testify about it, which is difficult if they are dead. In particular, this tampering of Ms. Hutchinson was delivered by the lawyer Trump paid to defend her, so it's especially heinous: He will be disbarred and go to prison for years. His sentence will only be reduced if he names Trump, Meadows, etc. as his coconspirators. Like 5 years instead of 10. Strong motivation.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/23/22 09:36 AM
I think Steve Mnuchin, former Treasury Secretary, is going to end up in prison as well. He not only refused to follow the law and turn over Trump's tax returns to congress, but apparently he secretly had the IRS halt all audits of Trump while he was in office. Mens rea again: That demonstrates criminal intent.

Remember all the times Trump said he would release his taxes, but couldn't because he was being audited? Turns out he was lying about that, in addition to every other thing he claimed. Should anybody be surprised?
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/23/22 01:11 PM
Pondering, I have no doubt that those on the left view it exactly as you describe. I’m sure those on the right view their party in the same way. But what of America as a whole? Most Americans view the two major parties unfavorably. 56% have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, 60% of the Republican Party. These figures are very dynamic and change constantly, so this gives you just for today as tomorrow they’ll change. What this tells me is neither party is like much outside of their base of support. Today the Democratic Party is disliked a bit less than the Republican Party.

You have 56% of all Americans wanting a viable third party as they’re tired of having to choose between the hard left and the hard right. This is a fact neither major party can fathom. Why neither is loved. Which shows in the rise of independents from 30% in 2006 to 43% today as the two major parties continue to shrink. The anti-voter reigns supreme here, today. Those who vote against a candidate or party, not for the other party or candidate, but against. Who that other candidate or party is is irrelevant as long as the candidate or party they’re voting against loses. If our two major parties didn’t have their monopoly on our election system, if we didn’t have our 2-party system, more like every other modern democracy with multi-parties, our two major parties would be huge losers. But neither major party wants to hear this and I’m sure you don’t either.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/23/22 04:14 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
This is also an interesting read and full of information. Probably not what a single one of you want to hear. What's possible doesn't mean it will or even may happen.

Even if Jan. 6 referrals turn into criminal charges – or convictions – Trump will still be able to run in 2024 and serve as president if elected

https://www.yahoo.com/news/even-jan-6-referrals-turn-211118070.html
There is a bill in the House currently to stymie running for office for any insurrectionist fomenting politico.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/23/22 05:38 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
Independents dislike him too much and will never vote for him....
...again. crazy
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/23/22 05:56 PM
Actually Rick, Trump never did receive a majority of the independent vote, not even in 2016. 2016 Trump won independents with 46% of their vote vs. Hillary’s 42% with 12% of independents voting third party against both major party’s nominees. Even in 2016 54% of independents voted against Trump. Hillary’s 42% plus the 12% who voted against both.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/states

2020 saw Trump lose independents 41-54 to Biden plus 5% voting third party against both Biden and Trump. That means 59% of independents voted against Trump.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

Then you had that long list of Trump chosen candidates that lost in 2022 midterms. I’d say the GOP must rid themselves of Trump or keep right on losing elections as independents aren’t about to vote for Trump or his chosen candidates.

I’ve said this before, for election purposes if I were a Democrat, I’d want to keep Trump around and out front for 2024. That would guarantee a Democratic victory. Getting rid of Trump is doing the Republican Party one huge favor.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/25/22 06:38 PM
Quote
if I were a Democrat, I’d want to keep Trump around and out front for 2024
Lets see if I understand this correctly .... it sounds like you're saying a politician who controls one party can commit crimes and no one should prosecute because politically it would be beneficial to the other party. So if I extend that to say murder .... people who control some special interest can murder at will be cause it would benefit someone financially or politically. Is that about the gist of it???

So someone who conspired and orchestrated an insurrection should not be prosecuted .... sounds like you are the attorney for Trump.
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/25/22 10:09 PM
What I’m saying as an election analyst is the Democrats have a much better chance of winning in 2024 by keeping their biggest asset as the leader and face of the GOP. Without Trump chances are that red wave that was predicted this midterm probably would have happened. Independents really dislike Trump and his chosen candidates, interested in taking advantage of that, keep him around for 2024. At least election wise. You’ll find out as the numbers are showing that independents would easily vote for someone like DeSantis while they wouldn’t vote for Trump nor would they Trump’s chosen candidates. Study independents some, forget about the partisans or party loyalist. They don’t decide elections. There’s not enough of them in either party.

The strategist in me just thinks throwing a party’s biggest and best asset out the window on to a trash heap or even jail, if winning elections is what you’re after is kind of dumb. I’m all about winning elections, all the other stuff, let the partisans battle that out. But apparently, all this other stuff is more important to quite a lot of the democratic party base than winning elections. So be it. I just say this, if Trump is the Republican nominee for 2024, I’ll guarantee a Democratic presidential victory today. A landslide win would even be probable. If DeSantis, all bets are off.
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/25/22 10:30 PM
Oh, forgot. Trump is losing control of the Republican fairly quickly these days. Republicans are tired of losing with Trump as their leader. Avid Trumpers have fallen from 65% in January down to 37% today. I equate very favorable rating for Trump as avid Trumpers. Non-MAGA Republicans have now become a plurality within the GOP, they out number MAGA Republicans 47-36. DeSantis now leads Trumps among Republicans for the 2024 nomination 48-40.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/by8wjw1hur/econTabReport.pdf

I’d say Trump’s power within the Republican Party hasn’t been broken yet. But it is getting close to the snapping point. Privately, a lot of Republicans want the Democrats to indict Trump, so they don’t have to come out publicly against him. Thus, keeping the voting power of the avid Trumpers within the GOP, not getting them peeved at the Republican Party leadership who want to get back into the win column when it comes to elections. The leadership, although still afraid of Trump, Trump still controls the largest faction within the GOP, around 40% give or take. They know since the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties that they must win the independent vote or lose the election. With Trump around as the face and leader of the GOP, there’s no way the Republican Party can win the independent vote. They’re stuck losing and losing more with Trump around. Jail him, expel him to Timbuktu or what and wherever would make these leaders very happy.

Personally, I don’t give a coyote’s howl what happens to Trump as long as he gone from politics.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/26/22 04:52 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
Personally, I don’t give a coyote’s howl what happens to Trump as long as he gone from politics.
You should, Trump tried to destroy American democracy AND stole top secret national security docs and you're not upset about that?
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/26/22 09:44 PM
I don’t let politics upset me. When there’s nothing I can do about it, why get upset over something you can’t control or help. What’s going to happen with Trump is going to happen or not. All the ranting and raving on a political site isn’t about to change anything. Sit back, relax and enjoy. Have your say, get it out of your system. Life goes on.

The old saying patience is a virtue I think is true in Trump’s case. I believe he’s going to get what coming to him. Be that via the DOJ or the Atlanta DA or just being spurned and scorned by the public at large. He’s losing his power within the Republican Party, he’s a has been who doesn’t know it yet. His avid followers who have now fell to around 40% of the GOP don’t know it yet either. That’s down from a high of 65%. It also seems neither do the democrats realize Trump’s a has been who is fast becoming irrelevant on the political scene. Trump has taken his last shot chance with all his very poor quality, extreme and unqualified candidates he chose in November. That failed big time.

Donald Trump Is Being Encouraged to Move on From Political Life in a Not-So-Subtle Way by Mitch McConnell

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment...d-move-182033348.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/28/22 05:24 PM
Quote
Trump tried to destroy American democracy AND stole top secret national security docs
P does not respond to anything but recitations of polls. The polls on whether anyone is has a response to either is a divided 50-50, where one side believes it is significant and the other believes it is a nothing-burger. Based on that P would probably say since it is evenly divided it means there is nothing to see here, since the polling responses are partisan and not based on reality.

While P believed it was inconceivable that anyone would try to overthrow the government ... in America no less ... I was typing furiously alerting people to the very real possibility it was well within a narcissists purview to do just that. Even now as testimony is revealed it seems almost like a work of fiction by some demented mind the lengths Trump went to try and overthrow the government.

Nothing to see here????? .... I guess P would have said in 1865 .... that was a nothing-burger .... just partisans squabbling.

The conspiracy to overthrow the government will go down in history as one of the most significant events in American history, except in Florida where any mention will be deleted by Gov De Santos
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/28/22 05:39 PM
I believe I typed that well over a year ago when I predicted Trump would run for office in 2024, while everyone was saying he would not run. And yes he may well be indicted, which MAGA-heads would see as a plus, they're coming to get us, and he may even have been convicted, an even bigger plus. It's the anti-logic of ignorant people.

I am 50-50 on whether he gets convicted. Jury nullification is bigly. These MAGA-heads would lie, cheat, steal for him, and definitely fall on their sword for him.

I can't predict this far in advance who would win the 2024, but what I know is the world will be different in 2 years, and right-wing nationalism may have infected a large chunk of Americans. Nothing warms the cockles of my heart better than thinking a demented narcissist may be the next occupant of the WH and his first act as occupant would be to parson himself of all past and future crimes he has and may commit.

Can't happen in America you say .... I just gotta laugh .... everything is possible America
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/28/22 09:49 PM
Keeping track of what America as a whole, all of America is thinking and feeling is what I do. Not just what 1/3rd or less is thinking and feeling. How better to know what all of America is thinking than polls. That is until there’s a better way. Trump won’t win the GOP nomination. He announced his bid for the presidency so early hoping that would stop any indictments. Also, so if either the Democratic headed DOJ or the Democratic DA in Atlanta does charge him, he can scream political persecution.

It's independents that interest me, not Democrats nor Republicans. They’re so readable it isn’t funny, no challenge at all. Now independents, the non-affiliated, less to non-partisans, 40% plus of the electorate, now they’re fascinating. Hard to read at times even with the help of the polls. What do most independents think of Trump, most have forgotten about him. Ancient history. Although Trump does alter what I think would be independents normal voting habits due to their high dislike of the man. We seen that in 2020 and again in 2022.

I think one thing all of you need to remember, I’m not a party loyalist. I’m not a partisan for either party. I’d classify myself as the average swing voter/ticket splitter. Trump won’t win the GOP nomination for 2024. More and more republicans are getting tired of losing because of him. But Trump will continue to have his, control his faction within the GOP. But that faction is shrinking. How soon they become irrelevant? I don’t know, but I do know it’s just a matter of time.

Now if you all don’t give an owl’s hoot about what all of America thinks and cares about, let me know and I’ll stop positing and depart the AO. That you only care or want to know only about Democrats, leftist etc. think and are doing, no one else. Then I’ll say it has been fun which I have enjoyed it here. But I’ll not let the door hit me in the butt.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/29/22 10:16 PM
Quote
Trump won’t win the GOP nomination for 2024
let's see ... if I recollect, you said he wouldn't run in 2024. If you're reading polling tea leaves ... get a new manual. I didn't rely on polling. I talked to MAGA-heads. Trump is still their voice and by extension their savior.

The problem with your conclusion is Trump is the only person who has control of THE BASE i.e. MAGA-heads. When Republicans finally wake up and realize no one can win nomination without THE BASE, they will once again board the train to nowhere, otherwise known as the Trump Train.

Quote
Now if you all don’t give an owl’s hoot about what all of America thinks ....
This is weird.

Conservatives must live in an alternate universe. The only reason I have engaged with you is to get your opinions ... not the results of polling. I can read the polls. I understand the mathematics of polling. I don't care what the polling says, but I do care what you think. When I ask a question like, do you think what happened on Jan 6 was an insurrection, I don't want a poll which says half the country believes it was not and half believes it was .... I want your opinion. Does Jan 5 qualify for the definition of an insurrection??? If it doesn't please tell me why not. The question is what on outside observer would ask, not a partisan.

Maybe I am not using the right words.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/30/22 04:49 AM
It certainly was an insurrection, just an insurrection run by Trump. But just because everything he does is a failure, doesn't mean he didn't do it. Or that it wasn't criminal. People died as a result of what he did. If people die in the stampede when you shout "FIRE" in a crowded theater, you are guilty of manslaughter at the least.

More than just the events on January 6th, all the plotting before that, all the cover-up attempts afterwards, all the requests for pardons, and all the hundreds of times plotters plead the Fifth under oath are evidence this was an insurrection. DOJ has mountains of evidence, including direct evidence of their criminal intent. I still think a RICO prosecution would be appropriate. If they were Black, that would be a foregone conclusion.
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/30/22 02:41 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
Quote
Trump won’t win the GOP nomination for 2024
let's see ... if I recollect, you said he wouldn't run in 2024. If you're reading polling tea leaves ... get a new manual. I didn't rely on polling. I talked to MAGA-heads. Trump is still their voice and by extension their savior.

The problem with your conclusion is Trump is the only person who has control of THE BASE i.e. MAGA-heads. When Republicans finally wake up and realize no one can win nomination without THE BASE, they will once again board the train to nowhere, otherwise known as the Trump Train.

Quote
Now if you all don’t give an owl’s hoot about what all of America thinks ....
This is weird.

Conservatives must live in an alternate universe. The only reason I have engaged with you is to get your opinions ... not the results of polling. I can read the polls. I understand the mathematics of polling. I don't care what the polling says, but I do care what you think. When I ask a question like, do you think what happened on Jan 6 was an insurrection, I don't want a poll which says half the country believes it was not and half believes it was .... I want your opinion. Does Jan 5 qualify for the definition of an insurrection??? If it doesn't please tell me why not. The question is what on outside observer would ask, not a partisan.

Maybe I am not using the right words.
It’s like I said, I’m interested in all of America, much more than just myself. I don’t give a cow’s moo about the right or the left themselves other than how each fit into the grand scheme of things. I’m much more interested in swing voters, the 40% or so who falls in-between the left and right with no political party to call home. Elections are my main interest and swing voters decide elections. Not Republicans nor Democrats. I’m interested in how will different folks from different backgrounds, political ideology, race, age, experience etc. will vote. Polls are excellent to finding that out.

You want to know how I feel or think on a certain issue, ask. Here again, I’m more interested in how every American, all Americans feel and think than how I as a single, lone individual thinks or feels. I’m one vote out of 160 million or so. Kind of totally irrelevant to the grand scheme of things.

I dislike Trump immensely; I said that more than a few times here, but once should be all that’s necessary. I find no need in repeating myself a thousand times. But I’m more interested in how all of America sees or view him than myself. I know how I view Trump, but not all of America. I know how the left views Trump, but not all of America. I know how the right viewed Trump, but not all of America. Throw in swing voters, add them all together via a poll, then you do have all of America view of Trump.

Polls, they show Trump is losing power, influence after 3 loses in a row for the GOP. I think 2022 was a huge loss for them even if they regained the house. From an election point of view, I find it very interesting that now non-MAGA Republicans outnumber MAGA Republicans, that Trump Very Favorable among Republicans have fallen from 65% down to 37%, that more Republicans prefer DeSantis as their 2024 nominee than Trump in a head to head contest. All this information and more can only be attained from polls, no where else. As time goes by, the trend since January is Trump is losing his influence within the GOP. Big drop after November.

Perhaps more important is that Trump’s announcement he’s running for the presidency was basically met with a shrug and a lack of enthusiasm by most Republicans. The exception was the MAGA Republicans which are now in the minority within the GOP. Most Republicans want to move on past Trump. One last thing on Trump running, the Republican primaries. Head to head, no other GOP nominees, DeSantis leads Trump 48-40. Now when the whole field is concerned, Trump leads the field because DeSantis’s 48% is divided up between other candidates. Trump 40%, DeSantis 35%, Pence 7, Haley 4, Cruz 2, Cheney 3, Rubio 1, with some below the 1% mark. Now compare this to October polls, pre-November midterm which had Trump at 49%, DeSantis 24%, Pence 9%, Haley 3% with the rest at 2 or below.

The polls show the influence of Trump is dropping along with those Republicans who want Trump as their nominee. From 49% down to 40%, DeSantis on the rise from 24% to 35%. Which simply means is that 60% of Republicans want someone else other than Trump to be their nominee. So far, they haven’t decided who. Trump may be running, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to win the GOP nomination. The trend is against him.

I placed Trump into the has been category after he lost in Nov 2022. That is in the national has been category, not in the Republican has been category. Trump still had his influence of that 30% of the electorate that is the Republican Party. After November this year, The GOP is joining the rest of the nation in throwing off Trump’s influence. Trump’s influence over the Republican Party lead to a huge loss in 2022. It takes more than just 30% of the electorate, the GOP base to win elections as we seen this midterm, the 2020 presidential and the 2018 midterms. It takes winning the independent, the swing voter, those not affiliated with either party, the less to non-partisan voters. Those voters who make up 40% of the electorate, more than the Democratic Party’s base, more than the Republican Party’s base. Polls my friend provide the clues, the trends, many answers. Not all answers, but probably most.

Bottom line, what to know where I stand on any issue or politicians, ask. I have this habit of putting how all of America views things over personal views or feelings. If you don’t care about 100% of America, care only about your 30% of the left, let me know. I’ll let you all have at it. All this means is my interests are different, mine all of America, yours, just the 30% or so on the left.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/30/22 05:10 PM
Quote
an insurrection run by Trump
well ... don't jump to conclusions.

This is one of those strange things about Trump; there never appears to be direct evidence of his involvement. Everything I have seen so far is circumstantial. Perhaps there is a preponderance of circumstance. The problem is everyone involved directly with the coup have taken the 5th. Perhaps one of the conspirators will flip and show SP Smith where the "dead bodies" are buried.

While I believe it would be very strange for a coup to be happening without the consent or knowledge of the person who will be replacing the new head of government, I believe the circumstantial evidence needs to be overwhelming, I mean tsunami overwhelming, or have a credible conspiratorial witness against Trump for an effective prosecution.
Posted By: Jeffery J. Haas Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 12/30/22 08:52 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
Quote
an insurrection run by Trump
well ... don't jump to conclusions.

This is one of those strange things about Trump; there never appears to be direct evidence of his involvement. Everything I have seen so far is circumstantial. Perhaps there is a preponderance of circumstance. The problem is everyone involved directly with the coup have taken the 5th. Perhaps one of the conspirators will flip and show SP Smith where the "dead bodies" are buried.

While I believe it would be very strange for a coup to be happening without the consent or knowledge of the person who will be replacing the new head of government, I believe the circumstantial evidence needs to be overwhelming, I mean tsunami overwhelming, or have a credible conspiratorial witness against Trump for an effective prosecution.

We know how to deal with mobsters, so we need to be doing more of that, not standing on ceremony and technicalities. Mobsters are particularly adept at exploiting these weak spots.

Sorry, but they only understand one thing, a bigger mobster.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/01/23 05:12 PM
Quote
Keeping track of what America as a whole, all of America is thinking and feeling is what I do
There are polling aggregators which do that and they provide commentary as a bonus. I much rather believe you rationalize your insistence on non-partisanship by appealing to the polls as your guide. Don't get me wrong. I believe you really really believe you are trying to be non-partisan, but I also believe you have completely side stepped any substantive issue with your rationalization.

Since we are in a highly partisan polarized political bubble, all polling will result in diametrically divided data. You can conveniently claim everything is partisan therefore you don't care. But that is not the reality. Just because half of the country believes an insurrection was not an attempt to overthrow a duly elected government does not imply you can not have an opinion on the event.

While the event itself was perpetrated by partisans, the event was a non-partisan attack on Democracy. You can certainly have an opinion whether the organizers and participants should be prosecuted. This is how non-partisan I am. If Sec Clinton has organized an assault on the Capitol in an attempt to keep Trump from occupying the WH, I would have been first in line calling for her detainment, indictment, and conviction for even thinking of overturning an election.

Its not about partisanship. It is about America as a whole. And that is precisely what you have claimed ... keeping track of America as a whole. That any of the participants were politicians of any political party is beside the point. They broke the law. They broke the sacred trust the Citizens of the country have bestowed on them to uphold the law as outlined by the Constitution.

Don't claim partisanship when American Democracy is under assault .... The Constitution does not recognize your protests of non-partisanship.
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/01/23 09:09 PM
Let me put it this way, I’m not a partisan when it comes to supporting or being a supporter of either major party. Now that doesn’t mean I don’t support the Democrats on somethings, oppose them on others. Same for the republicans, it all depends on what issue, legislation or event taking place. Mostly I vote candidates, not party. Part of my non-partisanship if you will was voting against both Trump and Clinton in 2016 by casting my vote for Libertarian Johnson. I disliked both candidates. I didn’t care who won, I just wanted to be officially registered as voting against both.

Now Trump turn out to be an egotistical bastard, obnoxious, rude, uncouth, the mentality of a 4 year old spoiled brat with his name calling and throwing of temper tantrums. 2018 followed my swing voting tenacities for Governor voting Republican but voting Democratic for congress. 2020 I liked Biden, disliked Trump so Biden was it. Voting democratic for congress also. A year of an anti-Trump vote all around. 2022, back to my old habits of swing voting or ticket splitting, Kemp for governor, Chase for senator, a vote against both Warnock and Walker. I never voted in the runoff as once again I didn’t care who won, I disliked both. But I voted democratic for congress. I always liked David Scott and he has always had my support.

Now independents fascinate me. I want to know where they stand on the issues and what they think. After all they make up 40% of the electorate, they decide elections most of the time. Although the major parties can decide elections by nominating bum candidates which the GOP did in 2022.

Now I’ve long ago placed Trump into the has been category, at least nationally as he could never win the independent vote. Independents dislike him too much and disliked his choices for the 2022 midterms as most of them lost. Trump is also losing his power within the Republican Party. His support is basically down to around 40% there. I know you don’t like polls, but that is exactly what the polls are showing. Sane Republicans are moving on away from him. Moving out of Trump’s MAGA republican column into the non-MAGA republican column. Republicans are tired of losing, getting rid of Trump is the only way to get back on winning grounds. Trump is on his way of becoming a has been within the GOP. I know Democrats want Trump in Jail; I’d say about half of Republicans are silently hoping the Democrats succeed in doing so. Although some are becoming a bit more outspoken about it as they want to win elections,as long as Trump is the face, leader of the Republican Party, they know they’re screwed.

I’ll end this saying the majority of independents really dislike Trump, but 1-6 is ancient history to them as much as the civil war is ancient history. Most independents just want Trump gone, how doesn’t matter. I want him gone and agree with most independents how doesn’t matter. The thing is I don’t have Trumpitis and neither does most independents. I and them dislike the heck out of him, but he took a whipping in 2020, shot himself in the foot in 2022 and is on the way out. If the Democrats find a way to stick Trump in jail, get him out of politics, great. Exile him to Timbuktu would also work. I want Trump out of politics, you want him out of politics, so what’s the problem?
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/02/23 03:56 AM
Quote
If the Democrats find a way to stick Trump in jail
My God man!!!!!

This is not a partisan issue. Every Democracy loving American should want justice for an attack on our country, but you drone on and on about partisanship. Politicians committing crimes does not make their prosecution a partisan witch hunt. No person is above the law, unless you believe that is a partisan statement.

Quote
so what’s the problem?
I suspect the notion no one is above the law is a concept which eludes your comprehension. You have in essence become complicit in the Republican defense that the people involved in Jan 6 were simply tourists and are now political prisoners. In your pursuit of non-partisanship you have become a partisan.

Let me know if I am a partisan .... I don't care if they are left wing, right wing or chicken wing .... if a politician breaks the law, they should be prosecuted just as any other citizen would be.

I dunno know .... it befuddles me that anyone would look the other way when someone tries to overthrow the government.
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/02/23 01:29 PM
I don’t care if Trump ends up in jail or not. It’s like OJ Simpson, most had hard views on him, opinions varied. You probably had the majority of the country thinking Simpson guilty, you don’t have that with Trump. You have a third of America who want Trump in jail, a third who don’t and a third who just plain don’t care. I think the DOJ, FBI are doing a great job of bringing the rascals who participated in 1-6 to justice. Good for them. I just want Trump gone from politics. Now if not caring what happens to Trump makes me unamerican and or not a lover of this country in your eyes, so be it. I’ve been called worse.

I haven’t followed the 1-6 hearings outside of checking now and then what 100% of all America thinks about them, not just a third. Congress, the 1-6 committee, there’re political with no power to mete out justice. I don’t trust politicians. Probably another sign of my unamericanism and lack of love for the country. Now I do trust the FBI a whole lot more. I always said the whole 1-6 thing should have been left in the legal arena, not the political arena. But that’s me. From what I seen with the number being charged and the number of convictions, the FBI and DOJ, they’re doing a bang-up job. The legal arena is where the power lies with 1-6, not in congress. 1-6 committee was there to convince public opinion of Trump’s involvement and his guilt. Which they failed to do. In the end, those who believed Trump was involved and guilty are basically the same ones who believed that to start with, prior to the first hearing.

I also think the Atlanta DA has a solid case against Trump for election interference. A case where Trump was directly involved. His involvement in 1-6 is purely circumstantial. There was more solid evidence again OJ Simpson who walked than Trump being directly involved in 1-6. What happens happens. Time will tell. I don’t get all worried, upset or bothered by things I can’t help or control or do something about.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/03/23 05:02 PM
simply amazing

Quote
I haven’t followed the 1-6 hearings outside of checking now and then what 100% of all America thinks about them, not just a third
This is a kin to you being the videographer of a crime being asked what happened and you saying I can't make a statement as it would tend to make me a partisan either against the perpetrator or the victim.

Ask yourself the question with all the evidence presented by J6C, what would be the rebuttal which would mitigate or exonerate the conspirators of a plot to overthrow the government??? Their "justification" or "rationale" was and remains the election was stolen. I suppose somewhere in the law there is a corollary which states when someone believes an election was stolen it is justifiable to overthrow the government. It's not partisan to want to examine the "evidence" of a "stolen" election. So when all evidence is carefully put under a microscope what was found is the only explanation for their belief is space aliens not only doctored ballots but used space alien mind tricks on the examiners to convince them Pres Biden won the election. The evidence of the fraud is still there only no one but space aliens can see it. Everyone else just has to believe it as an act of faith Trump, being the savior of America, actually won.

So how is that partisan??? It would be the same as saying mathematics is a liberal partisan science.

I don't know if there is enough evidence which would implicate Trump in the plot to overthrow the government, but there appears to be a significant amount of evidence which does implicate a number of Trump's closest allies in a conspiracy to overthrow the government i.e. emails, the public statements from Navarro and Epshteyn, and of course the blanket use of the 5th by all the rest when asked their name. I as a non-partisan in pursuit of the perpetrators of the J6 coup attempt, have to ask the question was Trump involved, as he was surrounded by a conspiracy. Trump as a narcissist is of course delusional. In his delusion he may not have known or understood what these people were doing. Clearly from his own statements he takes no responsibility for anything except for his pursuit of eliciting praise from his supporters.

So what is amazing is a non-partisan whom I suppose believes that Democracy is worth preserving (maybe I'm wrong, it may partisan to want to preserve Democracy) witnessed the only assault on Democracy since it's inception and your position is, it would partisan to have an opinion. I would have a similar amazement if my 13 Revolutionary War ancestors took that position and if any one had said It would be partisan of me to side with either the British or the upstart Americans.

Thanks for your participation in the great experiment of American Democracy, and remember it is only partisans of the Constitution who have preserved this dream.
Posted By: Jeffery J. Haas Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/04/23 05:26 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
simply amazing

Quote
I haven’t followed the 1-6 hearings outside of checking now and then what 100% of all America thinks about them, not just a third
This is a kin to you being the videographer of a crime being asked what happened and you saying I can't make a statement as it would tend to make me a partisan either against the perpetrator or the victim.

Akin to being the videographer and saying that you kept the lens cap on 99 percent of the time.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/05/23 10:40 AM
Quote
I don't know if there is enough evidence which would implicate Trump in the plot to overthrow the government

There is. Trump himself called up Republican officials in several states to urge them to participate in the fake elector scheme. He told the security people at the Ellipse to turn off the magnetometers that were not allowing armed attendees in to hear his riot incitement, because he wanted them armed. He told them directly to march down to the Capital and fight. I don't think anyone honestly can say that meant he wanted them to go down there and hold a peaceful protest. And then he watched it on TV for hours without doing his duty to stop it. The evidence is overwhelming.

A whole lot of US citizens in office, law enforcement, and the armed forces took oaths to defend the constitution. Not one of them took oaths to defend Donald Trump. So when those folks still support Trump after he proposes suspending the constitution, I think that fits the definition of treason. This is clearly well beyond partisanship. If defending the constitution is Democratic and suspending the constitution is Republican, then the Republican Party is no longer a legitimate political party.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/08/23 06:04 PM
Quote
Trump himself called up Republican officials in several states to urge them to participate in the fake elector scheme
I don't think made the calls to which you refer. It was his closest "allies" who made the calls regarding alternate elector slates. Those characters are probably facing close scrutiny for possible violation of state laws and of course on the flip side when they presented the electors to Congress and NA they were attempting to defraud the US government a federal crime. Unfortunately I haven't seen any evidence Trump was directly involved. He is certainly implicated only because he is the principle.

Quote
He told the security people at the Ellipse to turn off the magnetometers that were not allowing armed attendees in to hear his riot incitement, because he wanted them armed.
First, that is hearsay evidence, not corroborated by anyone. While Hutchinson appears to be a credible witness, she is only one witness who offered that testimony. Don't draw the conclusion, "he wanted them armed". He may have been miffed not allowing them in decreased his "crowd size". Can't be savior of America with a "small crowd size".

Quote
he watched it on TV for hours without doing his duty to stop it
That is more indicative of dereliction of duty, which may or may not be a crime.

I believe they need direct evidence of his participation in the plot to overthrow the government. I think it is hard to believe Trump, who would be the only benefactor of the plot, did not know what was going on, so one of the co-conspirators needs to testify Trump was ringleader or willing participant. Because he is a narcissist, he is very easily led by those who know how to lead these people with personality disorders. Putin, Kim, Xi, and Netanyahu all knew how to do it. People like "Kraken Lady", Guiliani, Navarro all knew how to appeal to Trump's narcissism. Al they had to do is sow the seeds of a stolen election, fabricate evidence in the guise of depositions of voter fraud, changing voter regulations which led to votes against Trump, allegations of machine flipping votes to Biden, allegations of bizarre schemes of lasers, watermarks, paper size, foreign servers, software written for dictators, Bayesian analysis of voting patterns, crowd size of rallies, etc. I vehemently wish the J6 Committee had taken each of these claims, and had all the claimants present when they debunked each claim. It would have exposed the claims as incredulous to even the purveyors of the claims.

Without someone from his inner circle testifying, I think it would be hard to convict regarding J6.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/08/23 10:34 PM
We have Trump's recorded call to Georgia's Raffensperger. No doubt Trump called other officials as well - the calls just weren't recorded.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/09/23 02:56 PM
That call was not about alternate slate of electors. It was about throwing out Biden votes or "finding" boxes of Trump votes. I believe both Meadows and Sen Graham were looking for ways to throw votes out i.e. voter fraud.

Here's the strange thing, while it sounds as if it is a crime to suggest the SoS "find" votes, it may not be a crime in GA to make that suggestion (or extortion).

I like the hour long phone call as it outlines in detail all the false, debunked claims Trump's big lie conspirators used in all states. I believe the J6 Committee should have used it as the context for debunking all the claims. Taken one by one, 5k dead people voting ... response no, only 3 voted .... Biden ballots under table .... no, secured voter ballot containers .... etc. Trump went through a long list and for every item GBI had already investigated and found no fraud of the type Trump et al claimed.

Back to the calls regarding alternate slates of electors, every Trump ally (or co-conspirator) should find a really good atty. Based on what I know form public records, it appears to be the crimes of committing fraud against states and federal governments.

One of the planners of the alternate elector scheme, Navarro, Eastman, Clark, Epshteyn, etc has to flip on Trump for a prosecution. For the most part I suspect they are all true believers and are all willing to fall on their sword for Trump. These folks are so delusional I believe they believe the election was stolen. Listen to the way Navarro,Epshteyn or Ginni Thomas talk about the "stolen election". They talk about it as if it is real AND it justifies overthrowing the government, which in their eyes is not overthrowing the government but installing the rightful government. Their delusions are not defenses when they will be in court.

Also note these people have different allegations of the "stolen election". They are not a part of the fevered delusions of the Kraken Lady, Guiliani, Jenna Ellis, The Pillow Guy, Q-anon claims, or the purveyors of mathematical anomalies. These conspirators in the alternate elector scheme (as Navarro called it, the Green Bay Sweep), believed all regulations not enacted by state legislatures made all votes which were affected by local non-legislative entities invalid and therefore should be thrown out, which in their mind would change the vote count in favor of Trump. Of course they were betting that Trump votes did not come in by mail or local drop boxes or early voting etc.

You can only win this argument by exposing it, which is why I believe Jan6 Committee failed in debunking the rationale, the justification these people used to overthrow the government. Once it is shown there was no rationale or justification in their mind their plot becomes a house of cards.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/09/23 04:30 PM
I have been cogitating over the possibility of Congressional criminality. A number of Congress Members and Senators were actively involved in the planning for insurrection activities. That is why they wouldn't testify to the Jan 6 Committee. They will not have that luxury when confronting the Special Counsel.

I am of the belief that several of them committed definable crimes, between the fake elector scheme, to the trolling for vote manipulation, to coordinating the actual attack on the Capitol. I think there is likely more evidence to be found about "tours" (read reconnaissance) of the Capitol immediately before the attack. I don't for a moment believe that Boebert's tweeting the location of Nancy Pelosi was innocent, whether it is prosecutable is another matter - until it is tied to other behavior.

There were, in my mind, three levels of Congresscritters involved in the coup plot. 1) those that were actively involved in planning, e.g., Jordan, Perry, 2) those that participated in more than casual fashion, and 3) those that went along (e.g., the 139 Representatives and 8 Senators that voted to decertify). Some in category 2 may actually be in category 1, depending on how the evidence falls out. A fairly good summary is available here:

These 16 Republican congressmembers helped Trump try to overturn the 2020 election (Grid).
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/09/23 05:43 PM
Update on the Georgia investigation into Election Interferrence.

Ga. special grand jury ends probe of Trump, 2020 election

https://www.yahoo.com/news/georgia-special-grand-jury-finishes-152626817.html
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/09/23 07:57 PM
The Special Grand Jury wants their final report to be public. I hope that DA Willis makes it so. smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/09/23 08:49 PM
A Judge will rule on that Rick.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/10/23 02:56 AM
Got it, thanks Pero.

As Pero points out, Judge McBurney will hold a hearing on the issue January 24, with DA Willis and any media outlet which wishes to intervene being "given an opportunity at that time to provide its perspective." Safe bet that the major news purveyors will be in favor of disclosure! smile
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 01/15/23 04:33 AM
The Special Grand Jury information will become public when defendants are indicted by the normal Grand Jury, if not sooner. Those questioned by either Grand Jury are free to talk about their own testimony any time.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/10/23 09:24 AM
Jack Smith just subpoenaed former Trump Admin VP Mike Pence for former President Donald Trump's role on J621.

Pence described some of his ordeal in his recently published book, So Help Me God. Pence stated in his book what he refused to state to the J621 Committee. Now Jack Smith is going to compel Pemce to repeat, under oath, claims he made in his book in the Fall of 2022 as part of Pence's future presidential run.

smile
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/11/23 03:09 PM
I predict ... executive privilege and 5th amendment ...

He will try to delusionally protect his position as a possible presidential candidate. He is viewed as a traitor by the Base. Why he believes he can get past a primary is beyond me. He needs to take a reality pill.

He has become complicit in the now almost de facto concept which I have been typing of politicians above the law. He will continue to maintain he as VP, if forced to testify would break precedent and ultimately separation of powers. So should a politician attempt a coup he will not testify against them.

Thanks for your patriotism Mr Pence.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/11/23 03:20 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
I predict ... executive privilege and 5th amendment ... .

This is why executive privilege won't work: Pence has already blabbed in his book. You can't blab in your book, then claim executive privilege. Then again, Prence is Rwing - those people are not known for stellar thinking.

Same goes for exercising the 5th. smile
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/11/23 05:02 PM
I don't think Pence gave up the goods in his book. He mostly regurgitated public information.

As far as recounting what went on in those meetings .... he'll plead the 5th and executive privilege

These character's only interest is themselves and their party ... Democracy and this country is dead last .... but it's what they consider patriotism

my 13 Revolutionary War ancestors are turning over in their graves
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/11/23 08:27 PM
Jack will want to know why Pence wouldn't get into the car on J6 when the Secret Service directed him to. Of course that answer will lead other questions along the same line. smile

Keep in mind, Pence is running for POTUS in 2024. How he conducts himself in front of this Special Council will dictate how voters view him.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/11/23 11:37 PM
as long as he doesn't mention Trump in any context he will maintain his 2% approval rating among "Republicans", and 0% among the MAGA-heads.
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/12/23 01:34 PM
The latest favorable/unfavorable among Republicans and Republicans only are:

Pence 56/35 favorable/unfavorable
DeSantis 70/14 favorable/unfavorable
Trump 74/21 favorable/unfavorable

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/gg0t2njevs/econTabReport.pdf

The latest on the Republican presidential nomination, Trump 48.3%, DeSantis 29.7, Pence 2.0

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...blican_presidential_nomination-7548.html

But you also have this:

DeSantis beats Trump in 2024 GOP primary — if Nikki Haley stays out: poll

https://nypost.com/2023/02/09/poll-trump-beats-desantis-in-2024-gop-primary/

Now you know why Trump wants Haley in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. But I’ve always said while the two major parties decide their own candidates, who wins and loses in the primaries. It’s independents that decide who wins and loses from the candidates the two major parties chose in the general election. The more important numbers than the above are how independents view these three, Independents and independents only:

Pence 27/48 favorable/unfavorable
DeSantis 35/34 favorable/unfavorable
Trump 40/49 favorable/unfavorable
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/12/23 10:46 PM
Jack Smith's investigation DC grand jury has spoken to former Members of Trump's 2020 Team regarding research commissioned by the Trump campaign in a failed attempt to find election fraud.

The Berkeley Research Group was commissioned to look into voting data from six states, according to the Post, and a source told the publication that the campaign team wanted about a dozen claims tested. People familiar with the matter told the publication that the findings did not match what the team had hoped for, and the findings were never released.

This means, that on J6, when Trump was on the dias, telling his MAGAt supporters to march up to the Capitol and "fight like Hell," he knowingly and willingly lied to them to rile them up because the research company he hired told him he didn't win the 2020 election.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/13/23 02:26 PM
Sounds like intent to defraud.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/13/23 03:36 PM
The problem with any post election auditing or actual counting meant for dissemination to MAGA-heads is the only result they will accept is Trump won.

None of the governmental agencies authorized to do recounts or audits have considered those items delusional people 'know" helped steal the election such as special Biden watermarked paper, Chinese thermostats with internet connections to Beijing, Italian lasers changing votes on machines, bamboo paper directly from China, Democrat Party bulk dumping of ballots for Biden, Democrat Party mules, Dominion machines software flipping votes to Biden, Smartmatic software flipping votes to Biden, Democrat Party onsite machine hacking to flip votes, anti-Trump conspiracy to not reject signatures, dead people voting, illegals voting, people voting more than once, Covid conspired with Democrat Party to change laws which disenfranchised Trump voters, state legislatures conspired to disenfranchise Trump voters, local election boards conspired to disenfranchise Trump voters, state courts conspired with anti-Trump forces to disenfranchise Trump voters, and I am not even close to being finished with all the ways almost everyone in this country was involved in a vast conspiracy to fraudulently rig the election in Biden's favor.

So even if Trump had knowledge of this report (one among many he was apprised, which indicated he lost the election, which he had acknowledged in private) none of them had done the type of research which would address all the ways MAGA-heads believe the election was stolen, And even if after all of these had been researched they would still not believe the election was not stolen. I advocated the J6 Committee address each of these in the only and best hope of exposing the ludicrous nature of their beliefs in the hope that some would recognize the delusion they held. Barring that, they would continue to strongly believe the election was stolen.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/13/23 04:02 PM
These polling results will be more meaningful in 12 months. The only thing certain is Pence is not now nor will he be in the future a viable Republican candidate. De Santis is the only current possible candidate who has some of the qualities the MAGA Base likes. He is brash, uses the government against political opponents, ant-woke, all of which demonstrates his bigotry and fascism. But what they are looking for is someone who actually says white supremacists stand back and stand by, and some on the other side are fine people i.e. he has to explicitly tell them he is a true believer. Until someone speaks exactly like Trump and is better than Trump, Trump will remain front runner.

The MAGA Base is religious in their support for Trump. Because he is a narcissist he has to be the winner, so he will therefore direct his supporters to continue their support for him .... whatever that will mean at primary time. Despite the fact he does not have financial support form large donors, remember he ran a very lean campaign in 2016, instead utilizing the free use of media in several format and platforms. I suspect he will rely on the same paradigm and media will have no choice but to follow him. For these and other reasons, I continue to see him as front runner. I make no predictions whether he will or can win a general but remember, 76M people voted for him and also remember the swing states have passed election laws which could disenfranchise enough anti-Trump voters to change the results. A small number of thousands of votes could change the results.
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/13/23 10:19 PM
True. I can’t tell you what will happen in Nov 2024 or in the primaries when they begin a year from now. I can tell you the likely outcome if these things were to happen today. Now one can look at trends from the polls for 6 months to a year and apply that trend to the future. Trends however can change.

I’ll say this, going by today’s numbers that Trump would win the Republican Primaries due to his very loyal MAGA faction while all other factions within the GOP are divided. Can the approximately 60% of Republicans who aren’t MAGA Trumpers unite to defeat MAGA Trumpers 40%. I don’t think so. Remember Trump won the Republican Party nomination winning around 35% of the primary vote in a very large field back in 2016. On the Democratic side, if Biden decides to run again, I don’t see where any democrat would challenge him and it would be folly to do so. Sitting presidents who were challenged, all have lost in the general. Truman decided not to run for reelection when Kefauver challenged him in 1952. LBJ joined Truman in deciding not to run again in 1968 when challenged by McCarthy. Reagan challenged Ford in 1976, Ford lost to Carter. Ted Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter in 1980, Carter lost to Reagan. Buchanan challenged G.H.W. Bush in 1992, Bush lost to Clinton.

I think the best scenario for the Democrats would be for Biden to announce he isn’t running again late this year. Let a fresh, young face come to the fore.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/14/23 07:54 PM
I am looking forward to the indictments.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/16/23 02:53 AM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
I am looking forward to the indictments.
A lot of decent Americans are. smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/16/23 06:41 PM
Updates from Georgia

What does the release of Georgia’s grand jury report mean for Trump?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/georgia-trump-election-inquiry-lead-100003933.html

Georgia Grand Jury Recommends Indictments for Witnesses In Trump Election Case

https://www.yahoo.com/news/georgia-grand-jury-recommends-indictments-162632844.html
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/18/23 03:14 AM
Dominion just gave Jack Smith useful evidence.

Dominion's summary judgement against Fox News validates Fox to be nothing but a propaganda platform aiming to help the Republican Party, but also the evidence it makes available to Jack Smith as he considers charges against those who used false claims about voting fraud to gin up a coup attempt.

With its filing, Dominion has given a snapshot of the ways and whys in which Fox News helped magnify false voter fraud claims, especially (though not exclusively) those of Sidney Powell.

Just as one example, Sean Hannity has played a role in every Trump legal scandal - serving as a back channel to Trump for Paul Manafort, participating in Rudy Giuliani’s attempts to gin up dirt on Hunter Biden as the first impeachment unfolded, and helping White House officials stave off the resignations of Trump’s White House Counsels in advance of January 6. But in each case, investigators only got his communications via other subjects of the investigation, as when DOJ found Manafort’s WhatsApp texts to Hannity saved in Manafort’s iCloud account or when the January 6 Committee got Signal texts Hannity exchanged with Mark Meadows from the former Chief of Staff’s production. Republicans chose not to call Hannity as a pro-Trump witness in the Ukraine impeachment.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/18/23 08:53 PM
Although Smith will want to nail down testimony from witnesses before his own grand jury, the Dominion case, the Georgia Special Grand Jury, the January 6 materials, and the New York investigations are going to provide very useful material for cross-examination, to keep witnesses honest (or be prosecuted for perjury), and to outline their potential cases.

The amount of publicly available material is enormous, and the leaks from courts are all indications that Smith is working quickly, broadly, and with urgency. I think we may have indictments - including Trump's - before Summer gets warm.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/19/23 03:52 PM
Watch Sen Cruz ask the question why nominee thought Fox News was a propaganda arm of the Trump administration, All one should have said was ... read court filings from Dominion lawsuit, which makes it clear Fox News was indeed a public propagandist for Trump. I have racked my wee small brain for evidence the same could be said of other media sources for the Biden administration but come up without any clear evidence. While one could look at MSNBC or CNN as propagandists, I think when one reflects that they are more exposing what Trump and et al did rather than promote any agenda from the Biden administration, it becomes clear they are not propagandists. This can not be said of Fox News and for that matter such networks as Newsmax and OAN.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/21/23 05:35 PM
Just read interesting interview of foreperson of GA grand jury looking into Trump election influence in GA. Appears a number of people with knowledge of the events pleaded the 5th on many questions. Others got immunity and testified.

I tried reading the tea leaves and all I got was tea. I can't speculate but one thing is for sure ... for sure ... Trump's phone call may be enough evidence to apply the GA election laws to indict.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/22/23 02:05 AM
Originally Posted by rporter314
Just read interesting interview of foreperson of GA grand jury looking into Trump election influence in GA. Appears a number of people with knowledge of the events pleaded the 5th on many questions. Others got immunity and testified.

I tried reading the tea leaves and all I got was tea. I can't speculate but one thing is for sure ... for sure ... Trump's phone call may be enough evidence to apply the GA election laws to indict.
She also said that no one will be surprised by the names on the list. Could this finally be the time that Trump is indicted? We can only hope. smile
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/22/23 02:41 AM
seems DA Fani Lewis started proceedings with "the perfect phone call". Looks like the clue.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/22/23 03:03 AM
I think the more interesting thing is the Grand Jury report said they belive several witnesses committed perjury, and they recommended such charges be filed. That would be quite significant, since members of a certain Party seem to have taken up lying wholesale. I think a lesson needs to be taught here: Lying is a fun hobby, but you do it in court or a deposition and you go to jail, directly to jail, and no $200.
Posted By: Kaine Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/22/23 01:26 PM
Maybe. Perhaps. Possibly.

NEVER. Trump has always been and will always be above the law. He will suffer no personal inconvenience for his crimes other than maybe pay a fine. He's good at paying his way out of trouble! I mean, he will do no real time. Indicted or not, there will be no jail time!
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/23/23 12:01 AM
Hmm, Perhaps one does talk too much.

Possible targets in Fulton County investigation may try to quash charges

https://www.yahoo.com/news/possible-targets-fulton-county-investigation-181347907.html
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/23/23 01:06 AM
NO charges have been filed ... there is nothing to quash. Since special grand jury could only offer recommends, are those guilty of conscience anticipating an indictment from a grand jury? Their argument is somehow the foreperson tainted the process by simply mentioning a special grand jury entertained possible recommended indictments. So if that should be a viable argument, then any indictment SC Jack Smith should present is also tainted by a plethora of legal pundits who have admonished him of all the possible charges he should level against, whomever he is investigating i.e. stop wasting money and let everyone go.

Simply stalling tactics. Stop the theatrics and lets see which laws were broken, and see what charges will be filed, and see if grand jury indicts based on that. I am curious about the evidence (other than perfect phone call).
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/23/23 02:38 AM
There haven’t been any leaks as to the evidence or what the witnesses said. Not that I know of anyway. The phone call along with Giuliani lying to the state legislature is about all public knowledge of what went on with the special grand jury. Willis now must decide what she’s going to do with the Special Grand Jury report. Will she proceed to seat a regular grand jury or not?

What we have is a lot of speculation with little facts. I’m not one to count my chickens before they’re hatched. We still have two big questions left. If Willis proceeds to the regular grand jury, is the evidence in the special grand jury report enough to get them to indict. 2. Is there enough evidence in the report to win in court.

You have somewhere between 16-23 jurors on a regular grand jury. Here in Georgia, all it takes is a simple majority to indict someone. In Georgia, 90% of grand juries vote to indict. In the court trial, it must be unanimous, all 12 jurors must vote guilty. If Willis proceeds, getting the indictment is probably a foregone conclusion. Getting a guilty verdict in court is another matter. We’ll see what happens.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/23/23 05:30 PM
Quote
Will she proceed to seat a regular grand jury or not
I suspect after she had seen some evidence prior to SGJ, she was convinced something happened which may be construed as criminal. After gathering evidence during SGJ proceedings, she was probably convinced at least some crimes had been committed and the SGJ agreed. Which goes to your second point.

She will take recommends to grand jury for consideration, expecting indictments. She will only present evidence for cases to those alleged criminal activities if she believes she can win those cases once grand jury indicts.

The problem with juries is nullification. If she proceeds, trials will be held in GA. First order of business for defendants would be to change venue to say Murray County and allow Rep Greene preside over trials. Second order of business for prosecution would be to find an objective jury pool. All it takes is one MAGA-head to be on jury and we would have jury nullification.

I predict she will only proceed with cases which she believes are ironclad. I predict even if defendant admits to criminal activities( a la the perfect phone call) there is a probability of jury nullification .... after all he is kwisatz haderach
Posted By: perotista Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/23/23 07:13 PM
Regardless of where the trial is held if Trump is indicted, it will in my opinion be an impossible task to find 12 unbiased jurors who aren’t either pro or anti Trump. I would probably vote guilty of anything regardless of the evidence concerning Trump just to get him out of politics.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/23/23 09:56 PM
I am against anyone who assaults Democracy. I compartmentalize better than most so would have to see what evidence is required to prove a crime had been committed. Should DA Lewis not prove the case, I as a juror would be compelled to acquit, and this despite the fact what he did was ethically damaging, but we are not talking about ethics, and we are talking about the law.

And despite the fact Trump is clearly the proverbial albatross around the party's neck, the party tolerance for bigotry and fascism has been a long term paradigm in the making. If they can't sell what they call conservatism, then change the ideology to something which does sell.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/25/23 12:47 PM
You would think jury nullification would have been rampant for the Jan 6th insurrectionists, and yet the Justice Department is batting 1000 so far. I think a lot of extremists on both right and left are being dismissed when the jury selection happens. That Georgia forewoman seems to be pretty apathetic about politics, yet understands that people who commit crimes need to be punished.

And even if the Georgia trial jury nullifies, there is still the DC criminal process being led by Jack Smith. I doubt any stealth Trumpists will make it onto a jury there. Remember, these guys wear their hearts on their sleeves (or rather their MAGA hats) on social media. Keep in mind Trump will be charged with just a few crimes in an initial trial, but there are dozens of other crimes he could be charged with. I doubt nullification could work for Trump again and again.

Then there is the civil case in New York that is going to drain Trump's funds and forbid anybody named Trump from ever doing business in New York state. His loans all get called due, and his credit is ruined.

If trials start to go bad (and they will), I wouldn't be surprised if Trump decides to flee. He's already tried that by fleeing New York for a "friendlier" Florida.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/25/23 04:51 PM
All comments regarding jury nullification apply only to Trump. Perhaps you did not know many MAGA-heads believe he is the son of God, come to America to save it from the Satanic, baby eating horde of Marxists in Congress.

Jury nullification is more than just a passing errant thought. A real possibility for Trump. I also might mention the mainstay of Trump's legal battles has always been to delay in perpetuity. He may pass before a verdict would have ever been read.


Run? He is a narcissist. He is in your face. He is still looking for the evidence from top secret files of the "Russia hoax". It should be obvious to all MAGA-heads the "deep state" is still after him because he tells the truth .... the swamp ... the election ... no responsibility ... he didn't do it .... perfect then and perfect now .... exonerated ... etc. Does that sound like someone who will run?

Gotta think outta the box when it comes to typing about Trump.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/25/23 04:58 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
...if the Georgia trial jury nullifies, there is still the DC criminal process being led by Jack Smith.

A Georgia jury is not going to nullify. We ALL have heard that "perfect call" where Trump asked SecState Brad Raffensperger to find 11,780 votes. THAT is against GA law.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/25/23 05:00 PM
Pence fighting Jack Smith's subpoena to testify is really pathetic. What a coward Pence is! Pence is completely fine with blabbing all he knows in a book he wrote and gets royalties from, but to state the same thing under oath, seems to be a bridge too far for Pence.

...and the guy wants to be POTUS? crazy
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Jack Smith, Special Counsel - 02/26/23 01:42 AM
Trump could shoot someone on 5th Ave and not lose a single supporter .... remember that? Trump could admit to the crime (o he has .... it was perfect!!!) have it on video, have multiple witnesses, etc and still there is a possibility a MAGA-head would simply nullify a possible conviction ... after all he is the son of god ...

Trump cultists are not rational, so despite the fact he may have committed a crime they would not see it that way ergo not guilty.
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