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Dec 6th, 2017
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373 |
via LA Times Methodology I was all...WTH LA Times? Where you purchased by some right-winger? Sheesh!  ...but it's this: Each day's poll respondents are a subset of the UAS election panel, roughly 3000 U.S. citizens who were randomly recruited from among all households in the United States. Respondents are asked three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that... (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? They're asking the same people over and over every day. It's some sort of experiment to see how much the needle moves every day depending on the news cycle. Whatevs... 
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
This part of the methodology makes about as much sense as asking squirrels who they will vote for. Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported vote in that election. Emphasis is mine. Another issue is they are asking the respondents who they "think" will win. That, in itself, is meaningless.
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 43
stranger
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stranger
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 43 |
This part of the methodology makes about as much sense as asking squirrels who they will vote for. Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported vote in that election. Emphasis is mine. Another issue is they are asking the respondents who they "think" will win. That, in itself, is meaningless. I have know about this for awhile, that is why I caution people to not take the results as a trend for Trump. It is a VERY atypical polling method.
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Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 17,177 Likes: 254
It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
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It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 17,177 Likes: 254 |
CNN/ORC polls only query landlines listed in the telephone directory and we know where a good portion that demographic is headed, mostly to IHOP for the Early Bird Special aT 4:00 PM, then home for a round of Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy, then to bed for some Murder She Wrote, maybe an episode of Matlock and then to sleep.
The fact is, a majority of upwardly mobile voters don't use landlines all that much anymore, or don't use them as their primary number.
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
deepfreezefilms.com
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