Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Campaign 2016 Worst Case Scenario

Your assumption is that the "constituency" ACTUALLY understands what loss of so-called "entitlements" means. I doubt that. They will only truly understand if and when they lose them. Then, we will be able to verify what they REALLY support and what they don't.

To me, the most likely scenario leading to impeachment is that Trump will run up against the provisions of the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974; he will, in the near future, absolutely refuse to spend money authorized and appropriated by the Congress and they will throw him out of office. He will discover, to his detriment, that the mandate he has is ethereal at best.

It will take a personal hit to shake them out of their stupor, but I don't have any faith that they will then actually UNDERSTAND anything.

I wonder if in the Harry Potter stories the word "muggle" is code for "muddle"?

not actually an assumption ... just an observation of conservative rank and file. They have a hard time getting past the spelling.

I suspect you are thinking when they touch the 3rd rail there will be nothing to replace it. They intend on privatizing, which means there will be a replacement which their constituents will believe is better than any government program.

Regardless of who is responsible, constituencies will credit/blame the party/person they have been conditioned to credit/blame. If the economy is good, it's Republican policies; if it tanks, it is Democrats (and vice versa). That is how Trump can claim to be affecting unemployment and the stock market even without any objective reality. Obama will get no credit for giving healthcare to millions and all the blame when it is lost. Democrats will get no credit for having created Social Security, but will be blamed when it is gutted.

It worked that way for Reagan and Bush - Remember how Clinton was blamed for the housing crisis and the recession? How Reagan's "tax cuts" saved the economy, not the tax increases? I'll bet Republicans would blame Democrats for Iran-Contra and Watergate. I've reconciled myself to understanding that logic and facts are irrelevant to political action. Now it is just who is in charge, by the numbers.

A clear case of ConROT...

I wonder if Duterte might make a better president.

I just want to see their reaction when the checks stop coming, when Mom is kicked out of the nursing home, when Jr. can't find a school that'll take is inbred IQ, when the stores can't offer credit, when their TVs don't work, etc. It won't matter WHO they blame, but rather WHAT.

I have already sent my resume for position of administrator of privatized SS. With a $4T bankroll to manage, I offered my services at a modest 1% of the action. And that is how privatization works. I get richer and really don't care that there is no safety net.

It's more than just ConRot, my friend (although it is that). ConRot is the symptom, tribalism is the cause (although there is a self-reinforcing aspect to it). More and more psychological research is demonstrating that humans have an almost unfathomable capacity for self-delusion, and confirmation bias is exploding the "information age." The only "information" that is relevant is that which conforms to my existing beliefs, whether it has any substantive basis or not. It will take a paradigm shift of extraordinary scope (a la, WWII, or the Great Depression) to create a "new reality".

Prior to the Great Depression, three successive failed GOP Presidents were elected Warren "Graft" Harding (Teapot Dome), "Silent Cal" Coolidge (anti-tax, tariffs and anti-immigration legislation) and Hoover (Smoot-Hawley, Great Depression). Remember that Harding appointed the richest cabinet in history (the equivalent of $300 Billion in current dollars), and their corruption was on a scale never before seen. They ran the economy into the ditch then refused to try to tow it out. Bush did the same (although he did bail out the banks). We know where this is going. The only question is how fast they can accomplish it.