Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Foreign Policy & News Brexit Eve

Let me take you down, 'cause I'm going to Strawberry Fields.
Nothing is real and nothing to get hung about.
Strawberry Fields forever.

Living is easy with eyes closed, misunderstanding all you see.
It's getting hard to be someone but it all works out, it doesn't matter much to me.
Let me take you down, 'cause I'm going to Strawberry Fields.
Nothing is real and nothing to get hung about.
Strawberry Fields forever.

No one I think is in my tree, I mean it must be high or low.
That is you can't you know tune in but it's all right, that is I think it's not too bad.
Let me take you down, 'cause I'm going to Strawberry Fields.
Nothing is real and nothing to get hung about.
Strawberry Fields forever.

Always, no sometimes, think it's me, but you know I know when it's a dream.
I think I know I mean a 'Yes' but it's all wrong, that is I think I disagree.
Let me take you down, 'cause I'm going to Strawberry Fields.
Nothing is real and nothing to get hung about.
Strawberry Fields forever.
Strawberry Fields forever.

As markets begin to wind down for Christmas, Investment Manager Robin Kyle takes a novel look back at what has been an eventful year for active managers.



‘Twas the night before Brexit and all through the City

Investors were sleeping with the pound sitting pretty;

The polls had been counted and ‘Remain’ it must be –

A godsend for markets and UK GDP.

But when we awoke it was all disarray,

The Tories were gutted (except Mrs May);

Leave had won out, the masses had spoken

What would go down when the markets were open?



As the bell chimed out loud to open the session,

We watched for the first signs of global recession.

For a week and a half it was just as we’d feared -

The pound hit its lowest for 35 years.

But all of a sudden the tide started turning

As investors bought companies with strong global earnings;

“Sterling’s so weak that their profits must soar

Bond yields are dreadful, let’s keep buying more.”



With all this excitement the markets did rise,

Despite weak inflation and low PMIs.

One final thing would be even more pleasing:

An interest rate cut and some quantitative easing.

So along came Mark Carney like a sage Father Christmas

And said “I don’t want this Brexit affecting our business.

I’m going to drop rates by point two five per cent

In the hope it shall lead to more money being spent.”



This news saw stocks rise through the end of the quarter,

As the weather turned cold and the evenings grew shorter.

Then November arrived with a miniature slump,

For investors grew fearful of old Donald Trump.

The polls they were tightening, it was growing in drama -

Why can’t we just have a third term of Obama?

Clinton was still favourite, surely she will win?

We all waited nervously for the votes to come in.



The very next morning, at the first light of day

We turned on the TV to cheer Hillary.

But the headlines, wrote clearly, defied common sense

A ground-breaking victory for Trump and Mike Pence.

The Aberdeen news carried its own special section

“Local businessman wins Presidential Election;”

When the day’s trading started it was all a surprise

As stocks travelled upward and the dollar did rise.



Donald Trump’s winning speech promised fairness to all,

And claims he was joking about a Mexican wall.

The focus instead was a new fiscal plan

That would see fewer taxes to dear Uncle Sam.

With his Treasury Chief to be ex-Goldman Sachs,

The top dogs on Wall Street began to relax.

“Many said Reagan would also be outrageous

But he delivered on growth and higher real wages!”



Trump’s startling win shows the landscape has changed,

A shift to the right, politics re-arranged.

The big question now is the European voter

As a range of elections begin to draw closer.

Renzi has lost, his proposals defeated,

While Chancellor Merkel might yet be unseated;

France is another, where Le Pen’s right wing faction

Give cause for concern as they’re fast gaining traction.

The risks keep on growing, uncertainty abounds,

So we’ve switched all our euros back into pounds.



Into December there’s still news o’erspilling,

OPEC producers agreed a cutback on drilling;

Saudi led the way, Russia promised to relent,

Boosting the prices of West Texas and Brent.

Meanwhile in Washington, Yellen and her mates

Voted in favour of higher interest rates.

Bond yields rose higher, stocks were in black

While sterling lost ground against surging greenback.



Now it’s two days ‘til Christmas and trade volumes are thinner,

As investors turn minds to a good turkey dinner.

Markets are closing and even President Juncker,

Moans about Brexit in a bright festive jumper.

When we turn to reflect on the events of ‘16,

It’s been a challenging year with so much unforeseen.

But as we come to the end I was hoping we might

Wish all Merry Christmas and to all a good night.


By Robin Kyle, Investment Manager

Whaddya mean there's no mulligans in Russian Roulette?

Political jargon - favourite phrases
By Amy Stewart BBC News NI


"Intransigence," "Tory austerity," "second class citizens," "hard border" and "bread and butter issues".

If you read these and you drop to the floor, cover your ears and rock back and forth, congratulations! You are a member of the Northern Ireland electorate.

To the untrained ear they might mean nothing, but to the NI public, if they had a bingo card with them on it, they'd have full house.

They are of course, just a few of the many phrases which have been wheeled out at the weekend's Stormont talks, and indeed in talks over the past 20 odd years.

Like hamburgers and rock 'n' roll, jargon's increasing popularity often gets blamed on America.

However, our political class has really embraced the habit, using the same buzz words with alarming regularity.

Cant Ireland just leave Not so Grrreat Britaint with Scotland and form Hagcoddland or Grrr-eat CoddelHagland? I understand how difficult it would be to abandon such traditional unwavering allegiance to Londonland. Can Wales be far behind in leaving the Muthaship?