Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Partisans' Trust in Legislative Branch Has Shifted in Past Year

I received this from Gallup today. I found it very interesting. 2018 Republicans control the house, they're trust in the legislative branch is at 48%, Democrats trust at 33%, independents at 36%. 2019, Democrats take the house, Republican trust drops down to 33%, Democrats rise from 33% to 45% and independents drop 3 points down to 33%.


https://news.gallup.com/poll/267041...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

There is also the break down of trust in the legislative branch from 1997-today by party.

Then there is the history of all Americans trust of the judicial branch, executive Branch and the legislative branch from 1974 to today.

I found this whole history of trust interesting. Perhaps others might also. You can see the highs and the lows The one thing for certain is that the legislative branch hasn't fared well since 2008. It has had the least amount of trust among all Americans than either the executive or judicial branch.

I'm fascinated that the people's house which is suppose to represent the people has the least trust of all.

Despite the lack of trust members of Congress have a 95% reelection rate. Why?

in any normal election cycle for the house, the average competitive districts where the district might change hands is around 35. Years like 2010 and 2018 aren't normal. This year Charlie Cook puts safe seats for the Democrats at 200, safe seats for the Republicans 181. Which leaves 54 that are actually in play with incumbents having tremendous advantages.

Out of that 54 for 2020 as of this date, 23 are rated in the tossup column. The rest, 31 are in districts rated competitive, but where one party or the other has an advantage.

Rothenberg, Sabato, others give very close ratings to what Cook has. The way the districts are drawn which include gerrymandering, the must of having majority minority districts, then regardless of how the district is drawn, certain states have a huge advantage to one party over the other which results usually between only 35-50 seats having a chance of switching parties with that number cut in half if one is looking at tossup only.

I just thought of this, an old saying when it comes to Congress and how folks view it and their own congressman. It goes like this, "I like my own congressman, it's the other 434 that is the problem."

Then you have 30-40 seats on average where one party doesn't even both to run a candidate against the incumbent.

It does seem the House will impeach Trump at some time in the future. What I'm watching real close are the 31 districts that the Democrats picked up in 2018 that voted for Trump in 2016. That may surprise some folks around here is that 31 of the 40 seats the Democrats picked up in 2018 were districts Trump won, that normally lean Republican, some by a whole bunch.

Now what does this mean? Does it mean the folks in those 31 districts just tired of Trump and want him gone. Does it mean they just wanted some checks on Trump or became just tired of their representatives? Would they back impeachment or not or would they throw out their newly elected Democratic Representative if that representative votes for impeachment.

No one knows the answers. We can speculate. What we do know is it takes 218 votes in the house to pass an impeachment article. Minus those 31, the Democrats have 209 plus one independent, Amish who was a Republican who said he'd vote for impeachment. We also know the GOP needs 19 seats, a net pick up of 19 to take back the House. This brings me back to those 31 newly elected Democrats from districts Trump won.

I find this extremely interesting. Repercussions below what everyone to include the media is looking at. Repercussions that no one in their current mind frame is thinking about.

It means that Donald Trump had already pissed off enough people to cause upheaval in a lot of districts. 2020 is gonna be like 2018 on steroids. Just hide and watch...it won't be long now.

Perhaps, now we don't know how this impeachment thing will play out. We have to remember that unlike 2018 where the Democrats had 194 seats to defend vs. 241 for the Republicans, in 2020 it will be 235 seats for the Democrats 199 for the GOP with one seat vacant.

Now the generic congressional vote has shrunk from an 8 point Democratic advantage to a 5 point advantage.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html

Not that I put that much stock in the generic polls. They're nationwide with the house decided district by district. Having to defend 41 additional seats this time around than last, it's not surprising to me that the democrats have more at risk seats than the GOP. 35 seats to be exact as of tonight are up for grabs vs. 18 seats for the Republicans. Compare those number of at risk seats to 2018 where the GOP had 62 seats at risk of switch vs only 8 for the Democrats.

I would forecast with the numbers as of today the GOP picks up 5-9 seats. Now this information is very dynamic and change constantly. My bottom line, don't expect the Democrats to gain any seats, also don't expect the Republicans to come even close to regaining the house either. This looks at the moment a status quo election in the House. Subject to change.

I think a lot depends on who the democrats nominate and how this impeachment plays out. Nothing written in stone.