Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Trump 2.0

Maybe we’re looking at this wrong. Especially in today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide, the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. I think what we have is a polarized 40% of the electorate who are avid Trumpers, republicans and another 40% who are avid anti-Trumpers or democrats. Which leaves 20% or so who are neither. It’s this latter 20% who holds the balance of power or who are election deciders.

Who or what can influence this latter 20% to either support Trump or oppose him? It probably isn’t any democrat. It’s Trump himself. Either they will go along with Trump’s actions and policies or they don’t. In our two-party system, the democrats are the only viable alternative to Trump and company. Just like Trump and the republicans were the only viable alternative to Biden, Harris and the democrats last year. Trump will decide the GOP’s fate come the midterms and probably the 2028 presidential among this 20%. It’s all up to Trump as to how this latter 20% views him or supports or opposes him. The democrats are powerless to influence this latter 20%.

I thought I might remind of Trump's desire of fixing the United States of America. In 1020 (known as the golden age) we had NO taxes, not a one! ALL money, for government came from one place - the place he plays with today - tariffs. During that time there were two classes: the very rich and the very poor. There was no middle ground. Obviously, the poor seriously outnumbered the rich and they got together and created the current United States of America where everybody at least got a chance. It worded really well and made us the richest nation the world had known.

This is what he is aiming at, this is why he loves tarriffs, and this is why he is trying to get back to the "Golden Years" (this term was set by the movie industry when they created movies set in the 'Golden Years'.

He wants to go back the the Golden Years. He doesn't want to pay taxes. The horror is that he will be able to convince his followers that its all for them and they too will never have to pay taxes. (he does not mention that most of them will get to be part of the lower, poor, echelons).

Unless somebody stops him this is where we are going to land up. Most of us are going to be flat out broke without a job or too old to take one on. I do not know how to stop him, I do know that he still have a LOT of support and they are beating the living crap out of most of us and we are putting up with it because we are civilized, modern folk who would never do a bad thing. Because of this its beginning to look, more and more, that he is going to get his we are we are in deep, deep, s***!

Oh - one last one. Movies gave is the "Golden Years" and our computers gave us "Mr Trump", that's gotta means something?

Thoughts?

Not sure how to study the situation. Here's what I know.

Trump has complete control of the narrative through his propaganda network, i.e. Fox, NewsMax, etc. Members of the MAGA Party have been bombarded with that propaganda for at least 30 years. But it is not just MAGA members. Even the independents who lean right have been exposed. Here's the problem as I see it. There is no effective way to counteracting the propaganda. Fact checking is for elites, as it doesn't change minds ... Trump is the only "truth" in the politi-sphere.

There could be some cult-like Democrat out there who could complete with Trump, but would we want another cult leader? MAGA has rejected the Constitution, so an appeal on Constitutional grounds is vaporous, and has little effect on independents.

Mainstream media has been actively exposing Trump as a criminal and as someone who has criminal intent regarding the Constitution to little effect. They tried in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Independents aren't buying it, or don't care, or whatever other excuse or rationalization they have is.

One of the Democrat strategies is to allow Trump to be Trump. This seems to be a better alternative when we can see what he does in his own words and actions. But is it enough? Clearly 99% of people in this country are not directly affected by Trump's lawlessness, so this won't work.

And you say, the economy. The fate of Democracy is predicated on the price of eggs. If I were writing a screenplay, no one would buy it, and yet, it may just come down to it. MAGA will never abandon Trump, but perhaps some independents will. So which is more important to independents, the price of avocadoes, deportation of illegals without due process, or Democracy?

The price of eggs would eventually return to pre-birdflu prices, however avocadoes would be contingent on tariffs. Democrat strategists apparently believe Trump's lawlessness would be his undoing, but more likely it seems would be an inflation tariff driven economy. So it appears we should put all our cheap eggs in one basket and hope independents will react to higher inflation, initiated by Trump's reckless tariff crap shoot, as they did when Biden was affected by supply line disruptions out of his control drove inflation higher. Is that the best we can do?



I'm not gong to allude to the very high probability Trump and his MAGA acolytes will implement all manner of obstacles to prevent MAGA losses in the 2026, through state laws disenfranchising voters, states throwing out ballots (see NC), or the federal government seizing voting machines (if it can deport someone simply by claiming they are terrorists, certainly it can claim there is widespread fraud and the machines need to be seized).

To illustrate how insidious the propaganda from the right is, I was talking with a "liberal" friend yesterday and he has completely bought into the notion that Europe has always been under spending on defense. Presenting him with evidence to the contrary hardly moved him at all, he is so married to the idea that Trump is "right about somethings".

Until 1989, Europe spent over 2.5% of GDP on defense, only reducing outlays after the USSR started to crumble - A.K.A. the peace dividend. Macrotrends Euro Defense Spending

The US numbers are here: Macrotrends USA Defense Spending

The economy has been the number one issue in almost every recent presidential election. A good economy the incumbent gets reelected or his replacement as in the case of G.H.W. Bush wins the next election. A bad economy usually means the challenger wins. Recently Reagan, Bill Clinton, Obama rode a bad economy into the White House. Those elections weren’t close. So, yes, the price of eggs has quite a lot to do in determining who wins. But I prefer going by a sitting president’s overall job approval. History shows no sitting president has won reelection nor has his replacement won when a sitting president’s overall job approval was below 50%. The list.

1952 Truman 33%, his replacement Stevenson lost to Eisenhower
1968 LBJ 43%, his replacement Humphrey lost to Nixon
1976 Ford 45%, Ford lost reelection to Carter
1980 Carter 37%, Carter lost reelection to Reagan
1992 G.H.W. Bush 34%, Bush lost reelection to Bill Clinton
2008 G.W. Bush 28%, his replacement McCain lost to Obama
2020 Trump 43%, Trump lost reelection to Biden
2024 Biden 39%, his replacement Harris lost to Trump.

I also believe that letting Trump be Trump is the best strategy at this point in time. The democrats don’t have the numbers in congress to challenge Trump and the republicans now, at least legislatively. Since 1 Feb Trump’s overall job approval has dropped from 49.9% down to 46.5% while his disapproval has risen from 46.5% up to 50.7% today. Trump is in a steady decline. One shouldn’t expect a huge jump up or down in this approval/disapproval, it takes time.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

What we have seen since 1 Feb is no weakening among Republicans who approve and support Trump. He started off at 91% approval and today is at 90%. Trump had no support at all from democrats, starting off at 6% overall job approval which decline slightly to 4% today. Trump had 48% job approval from independents back on 1 Feb which has dropped down to 41% today and is continuing to decline slowly.

I’ll add this rporter, most independents don’t watch FoxNews or any of the cable news networks. Only republicans, MAGA do as most democrats, liberals watch MSNBC or CNN. You’re not going to get either of those two groups to change their minds about Trump. You can however get independents, swing voters to change their minds, they’re up for grabs. Keep in mind the base numbers, MAGA probably makes up only a quarter of the electorate, the republican base 28%. Democrats are also at 28%, independents or swing voters at 43%. Republican and democratic minds on Trump are set in stone. Independents, swing voters, not so much. They can be influenced. The economy or the price of eggs will have the most influence on how this group views Trump which directly affects his overall job approval/disapproval and more important, election results. That is a political reality.

I guess is missed it. To get there he has to do certain things:
Get rid of most of the things that help people since 2020
Get rid of taxes
Have a bunch of them things that Trump loves so much in lieu of taxes

He is doing a pretty good job, so far on this one.

I guess I will try to be better.

When it comes to elections jgw, it’s how people feel at the time of the election, not 6 or 7 months after or later. What Trump is doing now didn’t have a darn thing to do with what happened back on 5 Nov 2024. It was what Biden and his administration had done over the 4 years of his presidency or how folks perceived what he had done or didn’t do. Presidential elections are always a referendum on the sitting president be that president is running for reelection or with his replacement which was the case last year. The numbers speak for themselves. Voters especially swing voters don’t worry about what will take place in the future, they base their vote on what has happened in the past. Most on their own personal situation. Prior to the election this question was asked. 53. You Better Off Now: Are you better off now than you were four years ago? 34% answered better off now, 48% answered better off 4 years ago under Trump.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_NgtZTja.pdf

Trump won those who said they were better off 4 years ago 76-23 over Harris. Harris won those who said the were better off now 78-21 over Trump. As James Carville said during Bill Clinton’s first run for the presidency, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Yes, the price of eggs so to speak. Inflation, rising prices doomed the democrats last year. Although Harris lost, she did amazing great considering Biden’s numbers. Historically, a sitting president with Biden’s numbers would have led to a landslide victory for the challenging party as it did for Reagan over Carter in 1980. Both Biden and Carter had almost the same numbers. Which as I have stated says a lot more about Trump than Harris and the democrats. Even though many Americans saw their standard of living fall under the Biden presidency, they were still reluctant to vote for Trump. Which in my opinion explains the drop in voter turnout from 63% in 2020 down to 59% in 2024, down from 159 million voting to 156 million even though 7 million more folks were eligible to vote in 2024 than in 2020.

In normal times I suspect that would be an accurate statement, but we live in Trump times, where reality is no longer whole but bifurcated into parallel universes where facts are what Trump says they are and a universe where every statement is tested for validity. The economy SHOULD be the driving force but I also suspect immigration has and will have considerable impact on not just the MAGA Party members but on many independents. The economy is one of the threads which has always been part of the fabric of determination for the electorate. However occasionally the nasty specter of bigotry in a variety of forms rears its head. America has a history steeped in xenophobia to outright racism. Currently it has become a phenomenon among the developed countries. We can no longer simply say it is the economy stupid, but are compelled to consider there may be a complex driving force, perhaps one contingent on or predicated by the other.

This is why I suspect, and I am only speculating based on proposition there will be free and fair elections in 26 and 28, the issues for independents will be binary. Think about how Trump has pushed the limits of his deportation campaign beyond the confines of the pages of the Constitution. Absolutely for the MAGA Party he has already accomplished a campaign promise and I suspect for many in the middle they will see it as a plus, regardless of the Constitutional consequences. Thus we would have competing issues vying for independent votes.

As you mentioned, which is probably true and valid, the bases of both main parties only consume confirmation news, so what do the independents value as "news"? (As an aside, I do watch or read "news" from Fox, Breitbart, Newsmax, Sky News, etc). Bigotry doesn't need a media outlet nor does the economy need a voice. Will the economy as an issue so outweigh the immigration as to determine the outcome of an election? or is there a third possibility for which you alluded?

Where are all the voters who voted for Biden and didn't vote in 24? Will they be so impacted they will turn out? Will they vote for a better economy or for the rule of law, or both? or will it be all of the above and maybe more?

For me it is all about Democracy. We can survive bad economic, domestic, or foreign policies, but none of it would make a difference unless we still have a Democracy.

I find it very, very strange. We now have huge gatherings against Trump. He has been working very hard, for instannce, literally destroying the government. I think its the population. The ones for Trump say it and live it. Everybody else, pretty much, ignore the whole thing, even when they watch the news. Its like the bunch of Democrats who didn't bother to vote. I don't think that they were against their president, I think they were lazy, not give a damn, members of the population and just don't care, they are not involved (until they are). I have have been saying, for a very long time, that the American Voting Public is not the brightest in the world. They just keep on proving it. The one thing that might help is that there are, I think, a LOT of people now that are interested due to any number of things to do with what Trump, et. al. are doing. The hispanics are starting to learn, the black folk too (new one is going after their universities), etc. (I would expect it grows all the time (hopefully))

I have no idea about solutions. Perhaps, when Trump gets us back to the good old days, where there are no taxes, just the other thing that raises all prices and pays for the taxes, where the government has virtually nothing to do with helping anybody or anything, etc. and where the very rich run everything. Maybe, then, perhaps, there may be actual change. Until that happens its hang onto your hat time and that's just the way its gonna be.

I am now 90 years old and demented. Not a hell of a lot I can do about anything these days but I would if I could.

My SWAG, jgw is in 2026 swing voters will for the most part be voting their own personal situation. Translated, that means their financial situation and standard of living. 2026 not being a presidential election year, but a midterm, don’t look for that many to get out and vote unless things are in bad shape. Midterms have average only a 40% voter turnout since 1910. Presidential election has averaged a 57% voter turnout since 1960. About the only issue Trump is above water on, where a majority of Americans approve of his handling of is the immigration issue. All other issues, Trump is below water or more Americans disapprove with how he’s handling these other issues with the two most important being the economy and inflation.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/economy

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/inflation

If you go back through history, when the house has changed control in the midterms it has basically been a bad economy that caused the changed. Not other issues.