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The Geithner Plan
here
Excerpt:
Quote
We have neither the time nor the stomach to look closely at this program. But we don’t have to; even from a distance, it stinks.

Why? Because there’s not that much ‘win’ to share out. The assets are worth what they’re worth. By all accounts, they’re worth a lot less than the banks thought they were worth originally. In a better world, the bankers would take their losses, admit their mistakes, and blow their brains out...or at least change careers. In fact, we have a suggestion: they should go into government; there they can make as many mistakes as they like and no one will notice.

But this is not a better world; it’s a world that is full of sin and sorrow...one with a fool on every corner...and an ace up every sleeve.

There won’t be three winners from Mr. Geithner’s plan. There will only be one. Whatever the toxic assets are worth, they will be sold for either more or less than that amount. If they are sold for less, investors will realize a profit. The banks – and their government backers – will lose because they will have given up an asset for less than it was really worth. On the other hand, if the toxic assets are sold for more than they are worth, it is investors who will lose.

Investors’ objective is clear: they want to make money. And they won’t invest unless they think they’re getting the assets for less than they are worth. Bankers’ and the government’s motivations are more complex. Mostly, they just want the problem to go away. So, we’ll put our money on the buyers of the toxic assets, not the sellers. Most likely, they will be the only winners. They will buy the more palatable pieces of meat at good prices; they’ll leave the most toxic pieces for the government. Most likely, the government will be an even bigger loser than it is now.

But the government will lose twice. First, it will lose money in the poker game with private investors. Then, it will lose again when its expensive flimflam fails to restart the economy.

The banks will be better off once they’ve cleaned out their cupboard. No doubt about it. They will be ready to lend again, right? But to whom?




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Originally Posted by Reality Bytes
"If a company is 'too big to fail', then it is too big to exist"
I used that quote over dinner with my Wednesday night group, RB. Many "yeas" and nods of approval.


Steve
Give us the wisdom to teach our children to love,
to respect and be kind to one another,
so that we may grow with peace in mind.

(Native American prayer)

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Originally Posted by Slipped Mickey
Reality has kept me awake most nights for a month.

Sorry, lately I haven't been sleeping well either, but I didn't think I was making that much noise.

I'll try to keep it down.

RB


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(laughter succeeds where lecturing fails)

"Those who will risk nothing, risk everything"
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I've been suffering retail anxiety since late 2006, not because sales were bad at that time, but I just felt a nagging anxiety that things were heading for a crash, that feeling got stronger in the fall of 2007. 2008 had it's ups and downs, beginning of the year was up from fall '07, but then came the fall of '08, in more ways than one!

Crash and burn is what my sales did, I was actually considering closing up shop, or moving to a much smaller location, and changing the business model totally.

decided to wait it out and see what happens, tightened the belt a bit more, cut out extra expenses, and rode out the worst holiday season I've ever had. Now it's March, and while I certainly won't say sales are hopping, we do seem to have landed on a plateau. Sales aren't dropping, and have been relatively stable on a month to month basis. Am I getting excited and saying I see recovery? I'm too much of a pessimist for that<G> but talking to my customers in other industries, we're all seeing a slight uptick in things(including real estate) slight being the operative word. While I don't claim to have psychic powers, for the first time in over a year, the gnawing anxiety I'd been living with has abated, I'm cautiously planning some espansion for late 2009, and hoping things continue on as they are.

We were hit early in this cycle, not sure if that means we might start getting back on our feet earlier? Or perhaps I'm falsely optimistic, either way, as long as I stay on a plateau I'll be OK. I have no business debt, keep my overhead low, and am not ordering any of the new and funky higher ticket items I might have even a year ago. But bread and butter pays the bills, so for now that's what I'm concentrating on, even going so far as to buy some radio advertising to help boost the bread and butter sales!

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Despite the apparent confusion of the Press and the Politicians, there is an extremely simple explanation for the mess that was created in the world economy, AND the reason why what our country is doing will not solve the problem.

It was knowingly caused by bankers and brokers, abetted by the Congress.

The solution was to allow the banks and brokerages to declare bankruptcy, and for the investors to lose their investments... across the board.

That was what the law required.

Instead, the political machine, owned by the Banks, Brokers and Big Corporations defied the law, and put the burden of bad debt on the 99% of the population that had no say in the decisions. There is no law that requires a Bail out, but there ARE laws that were designed to protect the public from Government Corruption.

Our Government... broke the written law,... indemnified the people who bribed them to save their (elite) fortunes,... and now twists in the wind, trying to divert the blame.

As of today, instead of nationalizing the banks to protect the public from further damage, your Government went the final step of simply buying the bad debt.

As of last year, 1% of the people owned 50% of the wealth of the United States. I expect that within five years, that same 1% will own as much as 65 to 70% of that wealth.

It's as simple as that. The rest is smoke and mirrors, and no matter whether the people use pitchforks or teabags, this isn't going to change.

..........................................
It's almost a week later, and the people are beginning to wear down. The real arguments that bailouts are Stupid, is being beat down with illogical thinking and more lies. The thought that somehow, bankers and government experts are so wise that they are the only ones who can fix the problems... is an illusion.

The rest of the world understands. America doesn't. Sad.


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Originally Posted by itstarted
The thought that somehow, bankers and government experts are so wise that they are the only ones who can fix the problems... is an illusion.
I'm not entirely sure that's the prevailing argument, cousin. It seems to me more like "the thought that somehow, bankers and government experts are so powerful that they are the only ones in a position to address the problems . . . " is more like it.

And that, my friend, is not an illusion.


Steve
Give us the wisdom to teach our children to love,
to respect and be kind to one another,
so that we may grow with peace in mind.

(Native American prayer)

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bankers and government experts are so powerful that they are the only ones in a position to address the problems
It could very well be that they are only putting off the inevitable. Unless fundamental changes are made in the way Wall Street does business the bailout funds will follow the rest of the losses right out the window.


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Now that's an entirely different argument though, is it not? Now we have left behind the canard that everyone somehow accepts the "powers that be" as ultimately wise and returned to a scrutiny of the wisdom of their plans.

There may be a great deal of truth in what you say, Greger, given our experiences with the same "powers that be" blithely ignoring the effects of their appropriation of resources and spoilage of the environment. They seem to have a knack for ignoring the long-term effects of their actions when said effects are likely to be detrimental to future generations.

Now, ironically, we suddenly hear the Republicans arguing that their adversaries on the Hill are threatening to topple the system and saddling their grandchildren with unmanageable debt.

Funny they didn't think of that before launching the $2 Trillion adventure in Iraq.


Steve
Give us the wisdom to teach our children to love,
to respect and be kind to one another,
so that we may grow with peace in mind.

(Native American prayer)

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The thought that somehow, bankers and government experts are so wise that they are the only ones who can fix the problems... is an illusion.

Hmmm... matter of semantics I guess... Anyway, my thinking, based on the people I know... and even most of the people I read... seems to say that while they (the people) hate what is going on, they tend to rant about injustice, but rarely take the time to really understand the problem. In this case, almost everyone admits to not understanding things like derivative swaps, and reinsurance, and why mortgages seem to be impossible to unwind.

Actually, they don't have to understand, but that's the real reason why the anger is free floating. I see it as a crime of rape, where the identity of the perpetrator can't be proved, because no one knows how to read the DNA sample.

Isn't the argument for continuing to pay for Bank Bonuses, based on the thought that the only people who can unravel the mess, are the ones who created it?

I believe that it's only an illusion that the money instruments are so sliced and diced that the identity is impossible to determine. When the Federal Government finally okays the guarantee subsidy for the banks and brokers to buy and sell, I predict that there will be a headlong rush to pick the cream of the "opaque" securities, that may make the entire "bubble" look like a raindrop. Just watch, and see where the money goes, and remember that it was just natural result of dumbing down the public.

I don't expect all of my friends to try to understand the problem, but with just a moderate amount of work, I believe I understand the economic basics that put us where we are today.. I do NOT understand why virtually all of our media personalities... and even worse, our politicians... seem to be so totally out of contact with the base of our problems.

Not a big deal I suppose, but when no one sees the naked emperor, I have to wonder why.

Last edited by itstarted; 03/30/09 11:06 PM.

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My Interview with Economist James K. Galbraith

Quote
"The Predator State: How Conservatives Abandoned the Free Market and Why Liberals Should Too," was published in 2008. It details the peak of a "predatory" governing system under President George W. Bush, which, despite its rhetoric, had long ago abandoned the "free market" principles and began to feed off of the institutions of the state.

[SNIP]

...bank regulation expert William K. Black did not hedge in describing the Wall Street collapse as a result of massive fraud starting in the board rooms and CEO offices of Wall Street .... Has the American economy fallen victim to a group of confidence men?

[SNIP]

Broadly, tackle this problem from the bottom up, not the top down. The most important thing is to improve the security of the population....

First would be enhancing Social Security. Second would be to enact a holiday on the payroll tax, and third would be to reduce the Medicare eligibility age to 55. I think if you get those things, you will greatly help American households get through this recession and greatly help the elderly population survive the collapse of their stock portfolios and home values....

In terms of health care, it could save money because you'd have a significant sector of the population moved over into an insurance system, which is substantially cheaper to run than the insurance system they are now in, or in many cases not in.

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