My own tiny investment is also looking better. I, too, hope that I am wrong in my pessimism, and will end up looking "the fool", especially after my latest prognostication of the DJ going to 5000.

As I see it, any recovery will not come from a poll about consumer confidence, but from the bottoming of the market. The recent Fortune analysis of the top 500, shows a drop of 84% in earnings last year. I believe that the "real" value of a stock will be established on the basis of a comparison to the 2007 earnings or previous peak , not by exceeding a revised earnings estimate or by comparison to the all time low.

The market is still being influenced by the activity in trading, more than by the confidence in investing. My guess is that chartists have not yet adjusted to the huge drops in bank and auto stocks, fo example. Consider the effect of a $.30 change in a stock that was selling for $30.00 18 months ago, and the effect on that same $.30 when the stock is now selling at $3.00. It's the penny stock effect.

I have a good friend who was tempted, and then bought Fannie Mae stock when it went to $.50 a share. He has made 50% since.

I have a very few accidentally owned shares in Morgan Stanley (from a merger), and just received their annual 250 page statement. With my admittedly weak analytic skills, I could not find good reason to be confident about the balance sheet.

Yes, I realize that this is not a quantitative analysis, but then neither does the consumer confidence scale represent an actual measure of underlying stability.

I believe that the real value of the market rests in the value of bonds. The question that gets swept under the rug in analyzing the true value of the market, is that of bond value, and even more, is the question of who owns those bonds.

As of today, the bottom of the market in financial products is not apparent to anyone of stature. Unless, and until there is a measurable base, I'll continue to tread water.

I'll leave with this question:
What happens to the stock market, if major banks are nationalized?

Life is Good!