Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Sense vs. Nonsense in Debt Ceiling Debate

Ah, rp, still seeking a substantive response. How quaint.

There are, by the way, models that predict economic behavior, based upon empirical research. That, of course, is not the methodology used by conservatives, so it would be difficult to produce. Kind of like asking to produce a behavioral model for god.

Another lie by our great and glorious leader and his loyal minions, and you wonder why people don't believe what he says!



At this rate the debt limit won't need to be increased before the 2012 election. Can't you see it now, a guy with big ears dragging his foot in the sand telling a guy with tears in his eyes "I dare you to cross this line. I am really really serious this time, you'll see" In the backround you see lines in the sand stretching into the horizon, far as the eye can see.

seriously? what lie. the timeline is wrong, ok. two weeks later. you're grasping for straws, man. grasping.

yes all the economic models from people of any persuasion are based on historical data and then manipulated with appropriate assumptions. The models are first used to explain the historical data with hopes they can predict future events. So for Friedman to explain why the great depression happened is a simple money contraction by the fed ... a look back but had he been there at the time he couldn't predict when he was going to take a crap much less predict the economic contraction.

Apparently many people especially conservatives believe that policy x, y, and z will produce the result of economic expansion. Now since we know the variables and we know the desired result it is a simple matter of devising an equation which ties them altogether (from a mathematical viewpoint). So it doesn't matter how one uses the set of all permutations of all variables and what they are, including non mathematical constructs, economists still can not predict the future. One recent famous case is the unemployment prediction by Obama of <8%.

But all of this is a far cry from predicting what will happen if the debt ceiling is not raised. It is a simple matter of arithmetic

as an example (based on 2010 budget), there is $175 billion available per month while the budget calls for $283 billion per month so $108 billion will not be spent

SS = $58B/m
Medicare = $66B/m
defense = $57B/m
interest = $16B/m
subtotal = $197B/m

as can be seen there is no money for the government to function i.e. no one in Congress would have any money to pay staff or even get their own paycheck, but that is minor compared to the shutdown of essential services the government provides ...

so, once again i call on Ma_Rep to outline who gets the money

Dems to Obama: "14th Amendment, GO FOR IT"

Of course as we all know this would trigger an immediate impeachment proceeding, but the question is, would an impeachment really harm Obama, or the Republicans?

gee it never occurred to you that it has always been a best guess based on incoming revenues ... so it is not a lie

Of course what happens if he DOES get impeached? We get President Biden, yes? We might also have the door open for a NEW Democratic candidate for President, yes?

Obama has already indicated that he realizes that he may wind up being a one term president. If the Republicans think that automatically translates to a Republican in the WH in 2012, they're dumber than I thought.

They might be handing the WH to any number of people on a golden platter, possibly Hilary Clinton (even though she has said she's not willing to run, people change their minds ya know).

Or it could be......?
(insert names here)

This whole deal is turning into real entertainment! We have two sides claiming that the majority of economists are on their side. We have two sides claiming to know the will of the "American People". We have two sides fighting like hell. The really amazing thing is when the senate came up with a plan that was the basic Republican plan, and the Republicans immediately rejected this plan because it made no sense! Then we have Obama who seems to continue to think that the Republicans are going to come around and then they are going to circle the campfire and sing songs together. This one is particularly confusing as the Republicans have consistently stuck with the "if Obama proposes we will reject no matter what" plan of attack.

This is NOT a debate, its not even a wrassl'in match. What we have is two sides talking past each other furiously as they continue to lose what little support they started with in the beginning. The only interesting thing really left is to see what is really going to happen when they fail in the supposed effort to raise the debt which, obviously, has nothing to do with the furor at hand and which the Republicans, obviously, are not going to allow no matter what the Dems agree to. The side that is wrong is going to LOSE! The decision as to who was wrong is dependent on utter chaos or nothing changed. If its chaos then the unfortunate thing is that we ALL get to pay a pretty hefty price. We will know in about 7 days? It may be of passing interest that the value of the dollar is now at an all time low which can't be a good thing (well, except for exports, if we had anything to sell?)

Actually, we ran out of money in May. What has happened since then is a shifting of money from accounts. (Like moving money from your savings account to your checking account to cover a check you've already written.) The problem is that as of August 2, there is no more money to shift. The week or so lag after that is what happens when the first bonds actually come due and the payments are not made. That is when the default actually occurs. But the money already isn't there so the default is only potential until the debt actually comes due. It's kind of like knowing your check is going to bounce because there are insufficient funds in the bank, but it doesn't actually bounce until it is presented to the bank. It is, however, still a bad check.

Now, Ma, I have to take you directly to task: You have pointed out on numerous occasions (when they suited you) that Congress is responsible for taking action on the debt - which is true. NOW you prefer to blame the President (because he is of a different party). All I ask is that you a) be consistent, and b) be honest in your approach. This was neither.

NWP said:
Yes... exactly... and that does not only go for the Federal debt... a few pages back, I mentioned the "DUE DATE" for derivatives... which happens to be part of a derivative 'Credit Default Swap". The CDS IS a contract which goes into effect on default. Legally, it seems, the trigger is default on Government Bonds, and this may not be negotiable.

I realize this is ho hum today, but the potential for a tumbledown or domino effect is there... don't know if there will be a legal change to this, but as of now, settlement of derivatives could be about 20 billion, which would destroy the derivatives market.
which of course could be a problem for the 650 Trillion market