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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 8,082 Likes: 134
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Joined: Mar 2003
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bahh ... all mainstream sources and therefore corrupted liberal sources ... where are the right wing sources such as hannity and limbo??? 
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Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 12,581
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 12,581 |
July 2002 ... staring us in the face wow now i do have to wonder you cite an article which does not predict economic contraction but outlines what would happen if it did occur. I guess I can understand why you are trying so hard to distance yourself from the one claim you made that I responded to which was, "no one knows what makes the economy contract and expand". By the way, some refer to such contractions and expansions as a business cycle. Personally, I refer to the modern version as a credit cycle. Neither here nor there, but just thought I might re-mention that.:-) Anyway, since you believe that noboby sounded out warnings about what certain polices would lead to, and you erroneously believe that Ron Paul did not warn about what would happen as a consequence of some government economic actions, this fellow is another canary in the mine: But what about my promise to hazard a guess as to the timing of the bust? After all, Tom Barrack indicated that he sees enough busted deals materializing, over the next year or two, to bring about a downturn in the real estate market. In order to make a reasonable prediction, I am going to bring into the mix a September 2005 Federal Reserve discussion paper titled House Prices and Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Study. Per this discussion paper's abstract: "This paper examines periods of pronounced rises and falls of real house prices since 1970 in eighteen major industrial countries, with particular focus on the lessons for monetary policy." Here is what I found to be most interesting: "House price booms are typically preceded by a period of easing monetary policy, with policy rates bottoming out about the same time that house prices take off, about three years before house prices peak." Considering the fed funds rate did not bottom out, at 1%, until June of 2003 (and remained at 1%, until June of 2004, before being ratcheted upwards) one could reasonably surmise house prices will peak somewhere between June of 2006 and June of 2007 — and then, of course, will break downwards (for the reasons mentioned above). With a plausible timeframe in hand, I am predicting the housing bubble will begin to burst within the next 14 months — perhaps by around December of 2006. Ultimately, we have a housing boom built on credit (and not savings) which has lead to labor and materials shortages and has lead to overleveraged consumers. This is why I see a bust — as indicated by accelerating mortgage defaults and a general decline in housing prices — commencing well before June of 2007. To close, always remember Austrian theory allows us to know there will be a central bank-induced bust. As to timing, I am only providing an educated guess. November 4, 2005Yours, Issodhos
"When all has been said that can be said, and all has been done that can be done, there will be poetry";-) -- Issodhos
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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 8,082 Likes: 134
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veteran
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 8,082 Likes: 134 |
no one knows what makes the economy contract and expand let me cite myself that was not very clear but i think i was more than clear enough for you to figure it out but then again i assume people can put their thinking caps on and arrive at the logical conclusion of a series of facts or arguments. Again you have proved me wrong ... i guess my mathematical training just overwhelms me yes all economists can derive some understanding of what happened during economic variations ... it's a look back thing ... just as Friedman/Keynes believes he understands what caused the great depression after the fact he still couldn't predict when it would happen again and yet he understands in his mind what caused it ... likewise in your citation Paul understands what might happen but he fails to predict when it would happen let's see i predict one economic uptick and one economic downturn within the next 10 years ... i think statistically i am historically sitting on a probability of 1.0
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Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,499
member
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member
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,499 |
... Why is "this" a "contest"? "Really"? "Nonsense" IS A "CONTESTANT"? "REALLY"? 
------------------------------ You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time,but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.[A. Lincoln]
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Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 9,740 Likes: 1
veteran
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Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 9,740 Likes: 1 |
"The basic tool for the manipulation of reality is the manipulation of words. If you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use the words." (Philip K.Dick)
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,004 Likes: 133
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,004 Likes: 133 |
Spending Cuts To Whack Economy? One element in the boneheaded taxedenoughalready "strategy" that we haven't discussed much is the wrongheadedness of cutting spending in a recession. Cutting "Big Government" right now owill cause a further reduction in the dynamic of exchanging goods and services, which is my definition of an economy. The downward angle of trajectory of the economic spiral will become steeper, reducing incomes (and jobs) and reducing revenues that are generated from goods and services exchanges. It's a really stupid idea, and we knows whose idea it is. Government spending needs to be reformed, for sure. But just frantically cutting it will not be positive or productive. It should be done in an intelligent and systematic way that optimizes and enhances the dynamic of beneficial exchanges of goods and services. Government revenue production systems also need to be reformed, and "economic" activity that does not contribute to the healthy exchange of goods and services (such as speculation and gambling) should be taxed in a discouraging way. The whole idea of investment as being something that wealthy people do, and it being the primary driver for a healthy economy, is more of the upside-down myth of the Trickle Down theory. An economy is the sum of exchanges of goods and services and is driven by those exchanges. Investment occurs when and where there is a need for more goods and services. A healthy economy occurs when and where the most opportunity for healthy exchanges of goods and services happens, and that is antithetical to our current situation of a widening gap between rich and poor. GW Bush was superficially right when he glibly said that Americans needed to go out and spend more money - the problem was that most Americans have less money to spend. But most Americans will not have more money to spend if the system continues to allow wealth to concentrate in the hands of a few percent of citizens (and corporations... or super citizens as we now know them). Keeping taxes low on the rich will not invigorate the economy. And poor people don't pay taxes. We don't need to spend less, we need to spend better. If the wealthy pay increased taxes to facilitate this, then they will make even more money from a healthier economy. It's a vision thing: the near-sighted can only see their current pile of money, and fearfully try to protect it from all the greedy sunzabiches who would steal it from them (as though it is all there is or will be - MaR has repeatedly expressed this position very cogently, "My vote goes to whoever puts another dollar in my paycheck..." (paraphrased)); the farsighted see that we are inextricably bound together in a vast organism where health is a mutually dependent condition.
You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete. R. Buckminster Fuller
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373 |
Had the Obama Administration GIVEN each and every American $10,000 instead of bailing out the banksters, our economy would be very healthy right now, humming along merrily.
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373 |
It's a vision thing: the near-sighted can only see their current pile of money, and fearfully try to protect it from all the greedy sunzabiches who would steal it from them (as though it is all there is or will be... More accurately, it's a DNA thing. Scientists have shown differences in librul and conservative brains and the side of the brains which produces fear is larger in conservatives. Theological conservatives want to test for a 'gay gene' - I want a test for the conservative brain, in utero, so that parents can make an informed, wise choice...
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,004 Likes: 133
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,004 Likes: 133 |
Had the Obama Administration GIVEN each and every American $10,000 instead of bailing out the banksters, our economy would be very healthy right now, humming along merrily. EXACTLY!! California Rick for President!!
You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete. R. Buckminster Fuller
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,004 Likes: 133
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,004 Likes: 133 |
It's a vision thing: the near-sighted can only see their current pile of money, and fearfully try to protect it from all the greedy sunzabiches who would steal it from them (as though it is all there is or will be... More accurately, it's a DNA thing. Scientists have shown differences in librul and conservative brains and the side of the brains which produces fear is larger in conservatives. Theological conservatives want to test for a 'gay gene' - I want a test for the conservative brain, in utero, so that parents can make an informed, wise choice... 
You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete. R. Buckminster Fuller
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