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Zeke If you cannot predict the outcome, then you also cannot predict who will ulitmately benefit.
And if no special interest really knows whether they will benefit from the outcome of a war, then it is hard to link up a causual connection that these special interests manipulated politians to start the war. The pattern of "causuality" which you assert is really only clear in restrospect when the outcome and who actually did benifit is known.
And, since the american economy has greatly expanded in that last 60+ years, then the pattern is clear: American commercial enterprise must be at the root of alll of the wars of the last 60 years since it is they who have benefitted.
emphasis added.
I think, Ardy, that the problem is this: You are correct in saying that they don't know the outcome beforehand. However, that doesn't stop them from starting it with the intention of winning. Example: WWII - I think we can agree that it was initiated by German expansionism in Europe. The motive was economic, in my view, because territorial expansion begets greater economic power. Political dominance is the weapon used to justify economic subjugation. After all, why would anyone want to expand anywhere in the world if not to gain some advantage. Taking over Togo is not going to be much of a gain for anyone lest Togo had some hidden treasure. We could find ourselves in a chicken vs. egg argument over economics and power, but it seems that economic power is real power, whilst mere power (without economics to back it up) leads to collapse (the USSR, as a recent example, comes to mind). So, albeit, the aggressor doesn't know the outcome, it initiates the aggression with the intention of winning and hence, obtaining an advantage.
When you point out that the U.S. has been a major beneficiary of almost all recent wars it raises an interesting point that perhaps deserves more attention.
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them." Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month." Dostoevsky
