If the Republicans put up a candidate that does not come off as bat sh*t crazy
At this point, I don't think they can. A huge fraction of the Republican Party seems to be The Batsh*t Crazy Wing. If their man is not going to be the Republican candidate, I think they will follow him off into Cloud Cuckoo Land.
That leaves about 20% of the voters as mainstream Republicans, and the Independents would split between the Democrat and the Republican. 30% Democrats + 20% Independents = win.
