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Dec 6th, 2017
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 18,003 Likes: 191
Moderator Carpal Tunnel
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Moderator Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 18,003 Likes: 191 |
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.
Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
Nothing new. Correct application of random and stratified sampling as well as competent machine learning. I started working with that in the early 90s. And, as is the case with all probabilistic modeling, it is very often wrong when the assumptions are wrong. The only thing new is that with today's hardware, Monte Carlo simulation is much faster and the random number generators are more efficient. So, it is possible to get results faster and more accurately than in the past.
And of course big data - storage, collection and analysis is faster and easier.
Last edited by Ezekiel; 07/07/16 02:26 PM.
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,433 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,433 Likes: 373 |
I could do without the threads.  But the song is cool. Notice that the lyrics overemphasize "...and I'm gonna be high...and I'm gonna be high...and I'm gonna be higher than a kite by then." It's the special Dance Club version of the track. X-cellent 
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
I saw him perform this piece in person at the Nassau Colliseum back when dinosaurs roamed the earth 
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 8,111 Likes: 136
veteran
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veteran
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 8,111 Likes: 136 |
I don't know whether to be inspired or very scared i have always thought those kind of responses are strange. I see it as simply another evolutionary step in data analysis. Now if one of those guys used a crystal ball ...
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
America can survive bad policy, but not destruction of our Democratic institutions
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
I do think the article made one very important point: If your poll depends on random landline calls, it is worthless now. Unless you want to know how elderly white ladies are going to vote.
A lot of younger voters don't even have landlines, and those that do rarely answer them.
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,005 Likes: 133
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,005 Likes: 133 |
You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.
R. Buckminster Fuller
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
And that is why I think she will make a particularly effective President: She is not motivated by status competition: She doesn't need "to win". She wants to form relationships and find common ground in order to move forward.
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
It's sounds like the guy/gal who gets married and then realizes he/she ain't what they thought. So you start to justify your mistake. Rationalizing away the obvious. Hillary has a record. It hasn't been the best of records, but like all politicians (human beings) it has high points and low points. And I don't give a shyte what she's like personally. She could be the nicest person or a mean ahole. Makes no nevermind. The only thing that matters is what she will do once she's in office. And that remains to be seen. Klein is not exactly an impartial observer. So I take his opinion with a grain of salt.
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,005 Likes: 133
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,005 Likes: 133 |
I am disturbed by the fact that every one of these people is a Christian of some sort. Why are non-religious people (i.e. folks lacking the bizarre impulse to "believe" in fantasies) discriminated against so doggedly? Onward Christian soldiers!
You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.
R. Buckminster Fuller
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