Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Campaign 2016

Matthew. Ni-i-i-i-i-ce.

And, see? Here I was all thinking it was a matter of volume. (the sound kind)

Yep, I'm with you there.

#TangerineNightmare

Angel Parra

I believe that Clinton has reached the nadir in her campaign, and that there will be a widening of her lead over the next two months.

Likely...
Although he does have one advantage:

I've been in the doldrums over the past week or so. There are some things at home that have contributed to that, but most of it has been the political scene. Now that Clinton is back from her medically-imposed hiatus, I think things are likely to begin turning around, and here's why:

1) Clinton has always done her best when her back is against the wall. (How Has Hillary Clinton Performed With Her Back to the Wall? - Bloomberg) I think particularly of how she did when she lost the Iowa primary in 2008, and again when she lost the nomination. She performed with class and heart.

2) She's rested. Really, taking some time off can really recharge the batteries. Hillary Clinton returns -- and not a moment too soon

3) Her illness will actually humanize her. Trump has already overplayed his hand (naturally). I think she will be able to demonstrate not only her stamina, but her perseverance, in a way she could not have otherwise.

4) Trump's "Troubles" will begin to take on a life of their own. There are a number of throughlines that are beginning to take shape - complicated business transactions that threaten national security; a lack of substance in even his policy "pronouncements" (such as the childcare deduction, which actually hurts middle class Americans); Tax issues (charitable contributions, debt, tax rate ( Does Donald Trump Pay Any Income Taxes at All? - New Yorker), foreign investments), and his complete lack of acumen when it comes to foreign affairs. I get the feeling there is a bombshell out there that may yet drop (like purloined tax returns, or exposure of his actual economic status).

5) A return to the mean. Clinton was too far ahead in the polls for that to be sustained. There has been a shift, but what is overlooked is that much of the "change" had to do with methodology. Prior to Labor Day, most of the polls were using "registered voters" as their sample, but almost all have shifted to "likely voters." Invariably, every year the "likely voter" methodology equals a trend toward Republicans. Some of the likely voter modalities are flawed and overcount older, whiter Americans and skew conservative. I do believe there has been a shift, but it is probably less pronounced than the headlines blare. Her lead is probably about double what is "predicted" (4 as opposed to 2%), about where Obama was.

6) Ground game makes a difference. Yes, Democrats are less enthusiastic than they were in 2008, but 2012 is probably a better measure of where the vote will actually land. Trump is still behind where Romney was, then, and he lost.

All reasonable. But one more thing: if Scheneiderman gets his hands on Trump he'll be watching the election returns with the boys in cell block C.

or Trump supporters do not care what your argument is and more ignoramuses will find their way to polling booths