One debate is over, and its effect will be baked in. I expect it will add 1% to Clinton's eventual lead. The second event (a "town hall") could also have an impact, but a smaller one. (Unless Kaine absolutely bombs, I don't think the VP debate will have an impact.) I still think we'll see a 1% rise in Sept and another 1% in Oct, with an eventual 4-5% lead in pop vote. (If the Cuba bombshell has legs, the race is over anyway. Trump can't win without Florida.)

A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich