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Dec 6th, 2017
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373 |
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
They're selling postcards of the hanging, they're painting the passports brown
The beauty parlor is filled with sailors, the circus is in town
Here comes the blind commissioner, they've got him in a trance
One hand is tied to the tight-rope walker, the other is in his pants
And the riot squad they're restless, they need somewhere to go
As Lady and I look out tonight, from Desolation Row Bob Dylan
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,004 Likes: 133
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,004 Likes: 133 |
Just a couple of observations on the presentments of Trump surrogates; Trump better than a woman in the White House. Giulianini first... I think his problem is that his glasses are so bent out of shape that he can't see straight. The woman in the interview... she seems to have caught what Mitch McConnell is suffering from (remember where he blames Obama for not telling him that the bill allowing lawsuits against Saudi Arabia is a bad idea?); her version is that in an interview responding to Trump saying Hillary is not faithful to Bill, that she is dragging Donald into "gutter politics". Come to think of it, that's just like how Obama caused racism in America to flare up again - he flaunted his 'blackness' just to divide people! I think I'm finally starting to get a grasp on Conservative thinking, and I like its playful absurdity!
You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.
R. Buckminster Fuller
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 193
newbie
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newbie
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 193 |
Looks like Don the Con had a bad week...... He was at +175 last week. Hilly was at -250 Next President of the United States of America
Odds as of October 3 at Bovada Hillary Clinton -300 Donald Trump +225 Other +2000 Bovada
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373 |
How does the -/+ thing work in odds making? 
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Aug 2005
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old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
How does the -/+ thing work in odds making? American odds: Moneyline odds are favoured by American bookmakers. The figure quoted is either positive or negative.
When moneyline odds are positive, the figure indicates how much money will be won on a $100 wager (this is done for an outcome that is considered less likely to happen than not). For example, a net payout of 4/1 would be quoted as +400.
When moneyline odds are negative, the figure indicates how much money must be wagered to win $100 (this is done for an outcome is considered more likely to happen than not). For example, a net payout of 1/4 would be quoted as -400.
Moneyline odds are often referred to as American odds. Moneyline refers to odds on the straight-up outcome of a game with no consideration to a point spread. The favorite will have negative moneyline odds (less payoff for a safer bet) and the underdog will have positive moneyline odds (more payoff for a risky bet)
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373 |
Thanks Zeke! 
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
So from those odds:
Hillz has a 75% probability of winning
Trump has a 30.77% probability of winning
Other has a 4.76% probability of winning
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
I think the odds on "other" represent a huge money-making opportunity. As long as nobody gets assassinated or drops dead, the actual odds of somebody other than Clinton or Trump getting elected has to be zero. Do they really believe some Black Swan scenario is that likely? The most likely of such events involve one of the candidates dying or dropping out, in which case the other wins. For this bet to lose you need something like a meteor landing on a debate to take them both out.
You would have to bet a lot of money, but you could make 4.76% in about 33 days. That's about a 55% annualized return!
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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 8,082 Likes: 134
veteran
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veteran
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 8,082 Likes: 134 |
Hillz has a 75% probability of winning
Trump has a 30.77% probability of winning which is ~ 538 prediction last i peeked
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
America can survive bad policy, but not destruction of our Democratic institutions
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