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Dec 6th, 2017
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 18,003 Likes: 191
Moderator Carpal Tunnel
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Moderator Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 18,003 Likes: 191 |
FiveThirtyEight has three projections for Clinton probability to win this morning: 79% (polls plus), 82% (polls only) and 87+% (now cast). The difference is +Iowa and +Arizona. This is before the grope-splosion and the Wall Street speech leak. Which will have the bigger impact? I have a guess.
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.
Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 18,003 Likes: 191
Moderator Carpal Tunnel
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Moderator Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 18,003 Likes: 191 |
The groping bombshell simply outblasted other shocking news on Friday. Imagine how big a story Trump's continued abuse of black teens exonerated after years in prison would play if not overshadowed by a grosser outrage. "Of course they're guilty. They're black! So what if the evidence was manufactured and confessions coerced..." Donald Trump Says Central Park Five Are Guilty, Despite DNA Evidence.
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.
Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,004 Likes: 133
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,004 Likes: 133 |
You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.
R. Buckminster Fuller
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373 |
FiveThirtyEight has three projections for Clinton probability to win this morning: 79% (polls plus), 82% (polls only) and 87+% (now cast). The difference is +Iowa and +Arizona. This is before the grope-splosion and the Wall Street speech leak. Which will have the bigger impact? I have a guess. ![[Linked Image from uploads.disquscdn.com]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/46a3851b389b99d8f8178df77387acc4df00348768e5bce05fbbcf2b51a329b8.png)
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373 |
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 3,819 Likes: 2
enthusiast
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enthusiast
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 3,819 Likes: 2 |
How'd they do that 
How eager they are to be slaves - Tiberius Caesar
Coulda tripped out easy, but I've changed my ways - Donovan
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,430 Likes: 373 |
RNCs Reince Preibus effectively tells RNC staff to "do what's best for them" as far as working for Trump's campaign and their career future. This is probably why Kellyanne has been MIA since Friday's audio leak. Writes Mediaite: The RNC has already redirected funds away from the Trump campaign to further help down-ballot candidates in this final month of the election, indicating the party knows Trump’s chances of winning are effectively nil now. Tonight's debate will probably be the final nail in the coffin for Trump's run at the presidency.
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
And yet his fans are sticking by him. This could actually affect the down races. We thought all Republicans and Trump fans would vote straight-ticket and send all the Republicans back to block Hillary (ala Obama). But if those politicians take a stand on Trump, it's going to piss somebody off. If they stick by him, they could lose the mainstream Republicans. If they desert him, they could lose the Trump fans.
I think that former Trump supporters disgusted with him might just not go to the polls at all this time. Hillary just might get the Congress she needs!
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Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 19,831 Likes: 180
Carpal Tunnel
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Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 19,831 Likes: 180 |
former Trump supporters disgusted with him might just not go to the polls at all this time. I'm also seeing some stirrings that Trump supporters are so pissed at the down ballot candidates they may vote Trump and leave the down ballot blank. It all bodes well for Democrats.
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
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