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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 3,821 Likes: 2
enthusiast
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enthusiast
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 3,821 Likes: 2 |
Andy Griffith 
How eager they are to be slaves - Tiberius Caesar
Coulda tripped out easy, but I've changed my ways - Donovan
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,431 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,431 Likes: 373 |
What...the...hell? - Donald Trump calls Hillary Clinton a 'globalist.' He's the one that off-shores his branded items
- Donald Trump goes after Bill Clinton for being a perv; yet it is Donald Trump who says he just goes up to women and kisses them and grabs their pu55y.
- For two debates, Donald Trump is sniffling. 'Some say' it's cocaine. He wants to drug test Hillary.
![[Linked Image from uploads.disquscdn.com]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ee2ad9ddca8d06079f2b568eefb1a62bf5c5919e105ff6c6680810f2831204fb.png)
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
Yeah, Jeff, I had forgotten about this movie. Interesting parallel 
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them." Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month." Dostoevsky
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Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 1,672
member
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member
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 1,672 |
Rick astutely pointed this out:
Donald Trump calls Hillary Clinton a 'globalist.' He's the one that off-shores his branded items Donald Trump goes after Bill Clinto for being a perv; yet it is Donald Trump who says he just goes up to women and kisses them and grabs their pu55y. For two debates, Donald Trump is sniffling. 'Some say' it's cocaine. He wants to drug test Hillary. A couple of other things Trump bragged publicly that he was allowed to walk into the changing rooms of beauty pageants. Women come forward saying that he did, indeed, walk into the changing room at a teen pageant, for crying out loud. Trump bragged that he gave money to politicians of both stripes because he got things in return. He was caught using his 'charity' to give money to Pam Bondi's campaign right when her office was considering legal action against Trump University. Ok, ok, here's the Wiki Trump publicly said he wished Russia would hack Hillary Clinton's email. The Russians hacked her campaign email. (Because she no longer used the private server, I guess.) Trump bragged that he could kiss and grab women by the purr without consent or even friendly feelings, apparently, and get away with it because he is a star. Women have come forward, reporting incidents exactly like that. (And whether he was lying when he said it, or when he said he was lying when he said it, doesn't that make him a liar either way?) About that drug test challenge Trump's campaign has gone way dark in recent weeks. Do you think it's because he's jonesing, just in case she takes him up on it? That would probably qualify as debate prep. The way Hillary Clinton's popularity rating remains ridiculously low in spite of her qualifications, maybe Trump is the only guy she could beat. I imagine she appreciates his help.
Just a Missouri school teacher ... stubborn as a mule and addicted to logic.
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them." Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month." Dostoevsky
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,005 Likes: 133
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 12,005 Likes: 133 |
Interesting article by Nate Silver: Where the race stands with 3 weeks to go 10. What would keep me up late at night if I were Trump?
I’m not sure I can keep up the gag of pretending that Trump has some sort of rational inner monologue. So instead, I’ll think of this question as what would keep me up late at night if I were Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s campaign manager. And the answer is that the Trump campaign was never really set up to have a strong finishing kick. Trump has considerably less cash on hand than Clinton; he also has a much inferior ground game and is burning bridges with Republicans who could help him. And in the primaries, Trump consistently struggled with late-deciding voters, perhaps because he was such a polarizing candidate. So even if Trump catches a couple of breaks over the final weeks, he might not be poised to take advantage of them.
You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete. R. Buckminster Fuller
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,431 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,431 Likes: 373 |
Republicans are pushing Arkansas Rep. Tom Cotton to consider a 2020 presidential run as if he were their last great, white hope. NYTimes
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 18,003 Likes: 191
Moderator Carpal Tunnel
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Moderator Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 18,003 Likes: 191 |
I thought I'd pull up some of my previous predictions so y'all can laugh... or not: 09/29/15 Predictions:* the GOP field is not likely to be winnowed much further until February (excepting maybe Jindal and Gilmore). After the three earliest States there will be a large exodus. Santorum, Pataki, Carson, Fiorina, and maybe even Christie, will drop out. Huckabee and Paul will be clinging to life with a hope for a "southern strategy" and unique constituencies. Theirs are "issues" candidacies, not real contenders (as is Graham's).
On the Dem side, Murray and Chafee will bow out. Sanders will have done well enough in New Hampshire and Iowa to keep it a race and continue to push Clinton to the left. Clinton will find that to not be such an uncomfortable place to be, as she has been shoring up her bona fides on that side consistently already (Keystone, immigration, etc.).
By mid-March, Clinton will have cleared the field, begun to pivot to the General election, and be gearing up for the Convention and establishing the juggernaut of a campaign. The GOP field will still be in flux. Trump may bow out by April, or may take his marbles to an Independent run. Rubio and Bush will be slugging it out for the establishment mantle, with Kasich clinging to relevance. Huckabee may finally run out of money and give inb with a sanctimonious speech about the importance of "values". Cruz will be riding the "outsider" money train and continue being the obnoxious a-h he always is (all the way to the Convention) where he will be a disruptive, destructive force hampering his party's chances in November.
* Bookmark this so you can laugh at me come May. 07/12/16 I think that the Clinton campaign has reached its low point of support during this election and that she will see a steady increase in support of about 1% per month, winning the election by about 10% points in the popular and a landslide in the electoral college (between 312 and 342 - picked 323). Watch this space.
Or, you can play at home: interactive map by CNN.
Here's my thinking: The general polling is nearly worthless, but Clinton has maintained a lead throughout of about 5%. In battleground States, her lead has been generally larger. After the conventions, the ground game will begin to take hold, and Clinton's advantage is significant. Trump will get some more Republican support, but it will not help substantially. I think ALL of the battleground States favor Clinton, and Arizona and Utah are in play as well.
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.
Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 8,088 Likes: 134
veteran
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veteran
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 8,088 Likes: 134 |
a level of confidence i do not have
this is not a regular or usual cycle. we are in the midst of profound and fundamental differences between political philosophies. Trump rallies are devolving into angry crowds willing to consider 2nd amendment solutions. the nominee is openly supporting the notion he will lose because the established political machinery to guarantee he lose.
i smell the acrid odor of anarchy wafting across my lawn.
in a conventional cycle your analysis may be accurate. on Nov 9th I believe we will hear the sound of Ignorance in America Matters.
ignorance is the enemy without equality there is no liberty America can survive bad policy, but not destruction of our Democratic institutions
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
Latino Likely voters chart only adds up to 90%. Did they leave somebody out?
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