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Dec 6th, 2017
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,431 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,431 Likes: 373 |
I propose 2 items for Sec Clinton in debate
1. make a call for all emails from Lewandowski, Manafort, and Bannon to be released to level the playing field .... I would like to see how they make sausage in the Trump campaign
2. in response to his secret plan to defeat ISIS ... ask if his plan is to use harsh language and talk them to death Hmm read a story yesterday about Trump's poor email server security. Some sauce for the goose perhaps to be poured shortly? Wouldn't it be fun to also see inside how the RNC operates? Would love to see some Anonymous leaks of RNC emails.
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 18,003 Likes: 191
Moderator Carpal Tunnel
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Moderator Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 18,003 Likes: 191 |
Election Update: There Are 4 Ways This Election Can End — And 3 Involve Clinton WinningI like the way that Fivethirtyeight does their analysis (not because of their result). I've followed their process throughout the campaign, and their prediction models (I'm a geek that way). What is significant about this particular story is understanding the "scenarios" within the "87% chance" of winning. (I tried to post the charts, but failed.) Most revealing is that there is about an even split between three scenarios: 32% Clinton Blowout; 36% an "Obama-size win"; and 17% chance of it being close. (And some 16% chance Trump could pull something out.) That makes me, personally, more comfortable.
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.
Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
Nate's models are Bayesian and he knows what he's doing. Every model, by definition, is a simplification of reality. But, the method used by Nate and Co. is far superior. It's one of the best ways to measure probabilities with little or poor data. They are the most reliable.
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
They certainly get some accurate results in the last few weeks of an election.
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
It Isn’t Just Donald Trump. The Bush Campaign Plotted to Reject Election Results in 2000DONALD TRUMP IS being pilloried for refusing to say that he will accept the results of the election on November 8.
However, this is not new behavior for the GOP. While it’s almost forgotten now, the George W. Bush campaign was planning to challenge the results of the 2000 vote if he lost the electoral vote, but won the popular vote. His campaign hoped to spark a national movement to pressure members of the Electoral College in states where the popular vote went for Al Gore to ignore that and instead vote in line with the national popular vote — thus making Bush president.
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 18,003 Likes: 191
Moderator Carpal Tunnel
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Moderator Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 18,003 Likes: 191 |
There have been a number of articles pointing out that Trump is just the denouement of GOP themes for decades. He is a product of their efforts, not an outlier.
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.
Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
From the Upshot: ![[Linked Image from s11.postimg.org]](https://s11.postimg.org/nof26h9bn/Chart.png)
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,431 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,431 Likes: 373 |
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,431 Likes: 373
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,431 Likes: 373 |
Best part of the link  : ![[Linked Image from i1308.photobucket.com]](http://i1308.photobucket.com/albums/s616/rogerr6/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-22%20at%203.42.37%20PM_zps4ay69w3y.png)
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
Thank God, it will not be a close race. His supporters will not be able to claim that the results were that faked in so many states. Or I suppose a few will, but nobody will believe them.
When cornered, Trump says the "rigging" is all in the press. Which he has been very hostile to and threatened if he wins. He created this by his own acts.
His main problem with the press is that they keep on accurately quoting him!
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![[Linked Image from uploads.disquscdn.com]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/775778e36757a4494c81c73db51b154f4146feb83a8b17c7f73a9466ee468fe9.png)
![[Linked Image from i1308.photobucket.com]](http://s1308.photobucket.com/user/rogerr6/media/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-22%20at%203.42.37%20PM_zps4ay69w3y.png.html)