Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues The Trump Administration Predictions for a Trump America

Mr Trump has the likes of Conway, Pierson, etc as spin doctors. Gov Pence will have an opportunity to work the back channels for Christ. These theocrats are devious

Dick Cheney, nuff said. (Mic drop)

Not even close. Pence like Cheney???? Trump like Bush (surely you jest). Pence will have zero input. Bannon, on the other hand...

for the most part i agree ... Gov Pence was selected solely to attract ultra conservative/evangelicals and try to simulate an aura of conservative legitimacy to his campaign

i see Gov Pence coming to Mr Trump and saying we can [cut off] ... and Mr Trump will respond with, yeah, whatever, do your thing

IOW Gov Pence will be the go between the WH and the ultra conservative (meaning Xhristian) agenda ... school prayer, anti-abortion, anti-evolution, legal discrimination of anyone not white, straight, Christian ... federal marriage laws .... etc

I think all of those could be easily passed in Congress thus allowing the US to become a tacit theocracy .... one nation under God (all others get frakked)

For balance, what policies would you be largely supportive of.

I have a few:

Disengagement/reluctance to engage in foreign military action. (How this gels with bombing the sh!t out of ISIS remains to be seen).

Helping to end Multinational corporation tax avoidance scams (which Ireland has been a key enabler of). This is an international problem and moves are underway but could be accelerated. Will be an interesting tension between the Trump White House and a congress who are dependent upon multinational donations.

Immigration reform. Despite the "build the wall" rhetoric, the US needs immigrant workers and a pathway to legality (they just wont use the amnesty word). Even as Hillary herself mentioned there seems to be an appetite for such reform shared amongst most reasonable people. There are approx 50K Irish illegal immigrants in the US.

To mars? Trump may want to continue the Obama intention of getting Humans to Mars (making America Great Again through such a prestige project?)

reform of the ACA - few are happy with Obamacare as enacted (other its too much or its too little). I doubt that repeal will be sudden or clean. It would be political suicide for the GOP to take insurance away from 20 million people. They will likely keep the "good" bits, leaving it largely untouched or perhaps even improving on it while have the rhetorical political cover of "repeal".

Schlacky, you are assuming that he is able to assemble a government that can govern. I find that to be a YUGE assumption given the band of mental rejects he intends to place in his cabinet. Even with the whole Republican majority thing in Congress, there will be multiple defections amongst said majority based on the demographics of their respective constituencies.
The policies may eventually morph into the general Republican spiel, and the Dems still have the option of inverting the coin and playing the same obstructionist game that the Repubs played for the last 6 years.

Heh, you think so?

Memorize this and make it a way of life:
"The filibuster is GOING AWAY the moment the Republicans take control in January."

True.

Team Trump Struggling to Fill National-Security Jobs

I am going to do my best to make realistic predictions - kinda like I did for the election.

What was apparent throughout the electoral process is that Trump has no clue how government (or the economy, or the military, or the Constitution) actually works, and he got the institutional support only of the fringes of the GOP. Now that he is in line to assume a GWBush-type Presidency, I expect that a couple of things will happen.

1) Despite (and because of) his assembly of a B-list transition team, the GOP establishment (especially through Pence, who is ultra-establishment) will provide MASSIVE input into his cabinet selections. The truth is, though, top-tier figures will avoid the "Trump administration" (that phrase literally brings tears to my eyes) like the plague that it is. So the Cabinet and other major posts will be filled with lesser-school nominees.

2) Unlike Bush, Trump does not have a substantive agenda to speak of. He made lots of electioneering promises, most of which will be unmanageable (and unimaginable), so he will rely heavily on Paul Ryan and Pence for agenda management and legislative priorities. He is woefully ignorant of how government actually works, so consider he will believe the brass ring is something he achieved, rather than the ring in his nose with which the GOP legislature will be leading him around. Instead of the "change agent" he believes himself to be, his will be a legislative program that we have been experiencing for 30 years: Tax cuts for the rich, recession-inducing economic programs, sops to the donor class (remember the carried-interest deduction - not going to be repealed) and "industry" - like sales of mineral rights, approval of Keystone, increased offshore drilling, repeal of regulatory safety and environmental provisions, budget cutting of enforcement branches (especially the IRS - watch his "audits" magically disappear), limitations on individual rights. It will be more insider-trading than the stock market, and attacking those "special interests?" Ha, Ha, Ha... we were only kidding! His only "achievement" will be repealing DACA and other immigration Executive Orders.

3) Within 100 days of assuming office (if it even waits to inauguration), world affairs are going to explode. Iran, North Korea, ISIS, Russia and China will ALL be expanding and testing the limits of US commitment. His responses will be all over the board, but the Pentagon will be trying to limit foreign involvement (which he will gladly cling to).

4) Merrick Garland's nomination will die, and some second-tier, ideologue will be substituted, dooming the country to another decade or more of crass corporate shills in robes and further erosion of individual rights and liberties. With the exception of Thomas, no Justice will consider retirement for another 4 years, although one or another may die. If so, kiss Constitutional responsiblity goodbye for a generation. (I'm not sure most people realize how exceptional the Roberts court has been with regard to judicial activism.)

5) Within 6 months of assuming office, Trump will be overwhelmed with "unintended consequences." He will be besieged with foreign problems, a faltering economy, eruptions of protests and violence (mostly reactionary to the protests), an uncontrollable Congress rife with bickering and personal agendas, and incompetent leadership in most of the administration. Moreover, he will be facing personal problems with court cases, appeals, and revelations of financial legerdemain. Talk of impeachment will start to take on real dimensions.

6) By the waning days of his first year, there will be numerous reports indicating his is the most ineffective Presidency of the modern era. In response, he will be making bold pronouncements of the opposite and proposing ridiculous programs. The only meritorious one might be a continuation of the Mars project, but he won't get cooperation from a penurious legislature that feels they can finally fill the bathtub.