Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues The Trump Administration Justice is coming

I have the same problem with my cracked crystal ball.

In a normal world when the bad guy's personal attorney flipped it was end game. Allegations came out, charges were filed, careers were ended.

Nothing really seemed to come of it.

Now his campaign manager has flipped.
In a normal world this would be end game. Tomorrows headlines would reveal heinous crimes, denials would be made, people would be arrested and the nation would erupt in right wing anger.

Ya know? What more does Mueller need to file his report?

I'm waitin' for the fireworks but each time the fuse is lit it just turns into a dud.

And forced to testify against some pretty nasty Russians, too! Not to mention that many of his charges have state analogs that could be pursued if he escaped federal punishment. Accepting a pardon requires you to admit guilt. That makes state trials very easy for prosecutors.

I think when it comes down to it, a Presidential pardon is not worth much unless you have state governors who don't want to charge you.

I know it's hard to wait, but Mueller is the real fuse guy. All these others are just punks lighting off firecrackers and bottle rockets before the real fireworks start.

so lets examine this

1. life in prison
... A Trump pardon would solve that (disregarding extenuating circumstances). If he flips he gets some prison time without pardon (assuming he provides incriminating evidence of Mr Trump's criminality on something ... so no pardon) but if he actually knows nothing which incriminates Mr Trump, the pardon is back in (maybe).

2. Russian extreme prejudice
... This is more of an assumption than actual death threats. Beside, if he doesn't flip, there is no problem. Suppose he flips and provides evidence against Ukrainians and Russians, has there been a known death threat from any of these folks, or is it just an assumption since it is well known how these gangsters operate?

3. Witsec
... so does he need protection from Mr Trump? He wouldn't hurt anyone physically. Could he order someone hurt? Maybe. From Russians? see above.

4. a 5th of moonshine
... I foresee a pardon of infinite dimensions or forced to respond to what question? I don't remember.

Just some spitballing.

If Manafort actually knew anything, why would Mr Trump give him up?

Speculation: I think SP Mueller convinced Manafort even if Mr Trump gave him a walk, state entities would not and he would therefore still spend a lifetime in prison, however if he ... Now I don't think foreign powers come into play. The accounting books are being investigated, so why would SP Mueller need Manafort to confirm what is already known?

just rambling

That's just how it works in court. The prosecutor may already know something but the evidence for it is too complicated for the average juror. It's good to present the evidence AND have a witness or a confession. That simplifies things.

could be but as an example of what I am thinking ... SP Mueller did not need Manafort to "help" Mueller's case ... all SP Mueller needed was the evidence which presented the case itself.

Of course it could be since Mr Trump does not use any documentary applications except twitter (I am excluding telecoms as I don't know how long phone server logs kept), it could be necessary for eye witness accounts. But then Manafort is a proven liar (would he lie to save his skin?) and of course we have the narcissist who compulsively lies ...

I am not so sure everything is as it appears and as clear cut as many believe it is.

Manafort had to deliver some blockbuster, truthful information to get the deal he got, else Mueller would have walked out of that room.

Apparently, it works like this:

* Prosecutors would tell Manafort to list every crime he has committed, and then identify every crime committed by others

* Prosecutors ask about any crime that Manafort knows about.

* Prosecutors begin corroborating everything Manafort said with external information.

* When completely satisfied of all of Manafort's information, the Prosecutors can offer him a cooperation agreement.

Rick, you have that exactly right. One wrinkle, though, is that the defendant has to ask first. (I know that's not how it looks on TV. Prosecutors can "mention" cooperating, but Defendants have to make the first offer. Cops, however, can promise all they want, since they can't agree to anything.) Once the issue is on the table, negotiations ensue. You can discern that Kabuki in the Manafort stories. Once the offer has been made, though, your sequence is exactly right.

The key for Manafort is identifying activities and explaining how evidence fits together - even if he never testifies. Gates was not "necessary" for Manafort's trial, but he could provide the view from the inside, so they used him.

Latest report is Manafort's agreement was only about non campaign issues. The caveat is of course he probably has to answer ALL questions on ALL issues including the campaign.

Goes to my previous comment all is not as it appears.

I suspect SP Mueller has a list of all the bullet points worth investigating. Manafort can only provide details of the ephemeral threads which may connect these items i.e. details of Russian meeting, which may corroborate previous testimony from Trump's and Kushner, or refutation of Russian denials. I don't think he can provide any "new" avenues of investigation.