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The nation's economy will be so sluggish well into next year that any major hiccup could tip it into recession, UCLA's latest economic forecast predicts.

The end of easy credit and a further decline in home construction are sending the economy into a "near-recession," with growth hovering at just above 1% through the first three months of 2008, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast to be released today.

The forecast presents a gloomier outlook for jobs and the housing market. The nation's unemployment rate will rise to 5.2% by mid-2008, up from the current 4.6%.

And home values will fall 10% to 15% from their peaks, the forecast says, meaning that sliding prices have yet to hit bottom.

"The small recent minimal declines represent not the end, but rather the beginning of what will be a very painful decline," David Shulman, author of the forecast, said in the report, referring to home prices.

Still, UCLA's prognosticators say the economy should narrowly avoid a formal recession -- that is, two consecutive quarters of negative growth. But analysts indicated that with economic currents shifting rapidly, there's no guarantee of a clean getaway.