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Dec 6th, 2017
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 11,994 Likes: 130
veteran
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veteran
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 11,994 Likes: 130 |
Voters are aware that a vote for Democrats is a vote progress. It may be an illusion, smoke and mirrors, but some small progress usually occurs under a Democratic administration.
But yeah, I think Democrats, and democrats, and some not so democratic, will be voting to oust Trump.
In large numbers.
Everywhere.
It may or may not be enough. But one moment that truly summed up what's going on with the progressive grassroots happened when I spoke to a crowd of a little over 100 people at the convention. I asked them which candidate they were supporting or at least considering. I began by asking about Sen. Elizabeth Warren, which elicited a big cheer. Then Bernie Sanders, and again a sizable number applauded. I went on to measure support (in an unscientific way) for a few of the other top tier candidates, such as Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, with all receiving some level of support, but far below that of Warren and Sanders.
Then I came to the person leading all the recent polls: Joe Biden. The response to his name was both unanimous and comical. Not one person applauded.
After a moment of awkward silence, the room then erupted in laughter. Then, however, came the most important question of my informal survey, as I asked, "If Biden is the nominee, will you support him?" Those same people who had just been silent burst into applause with many agreeing that they would vote for a Democrat no matter who it was.
You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.
R. Buckminster Fuller
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Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 19,831 Likes: 180
Carpal Tunnel
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Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 19,831 Likes: 180 |
And this right here is what I was talking about in the roundtable a moment ago. These folks are VOTERS. They'll vote blue no matter who, just like I will. But non-voters will sit it out in huge numbers.
Biden will pull off a squeaker if he's the candidate.
Warren or Sanders would win in a landslide.
Biden will attempt to re-assemble the mess Trump has made into his 1980s vision of what America should be, then lose in 2024 handing the ball back to Republicans.
A truly progressive candidate will re-make Trump's disaster into the America that America should be. Voters will once again have something to be positive about, something to get excited about, and something to get out and vote for.
A New Tide will rise which actually floats all boats, not just the yachts. Higher wages, better benefits, health insurance, as much education as anyone wants. You want business to flourish? Make sure their customers have plenty of money to spend.
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
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Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 17,167 Likes: 254
It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
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It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 17,167 Likes: 254 |
Then we'd better do a good job of selling Warren, and she better not fall for Trump's Pocahontas nonsense in the debates.
I tend to view the upcoming two party debates as being somewhat similar to a first day in prison, where the new guy has to pick the biggest baddest inmate and punch him as hard as they can.
You have to let the bully know you're not going to take any of his sh!t right off the bat.
Anyone who engages Trump the way Hillz did is dead meat.
He only understands one means of communication.
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
deepfreezefilms.com
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Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 19,831 Likes: 180
Carpal Tunnel
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Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 19,831 Likes: 180 |
Near as I can tell, the primaries are decided by older white voters, Boomers are still in charge....Biden it is...
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
That would be unfortunate. I don't think many Democrats favor Biden as their first choice, but they would vote for him if he is the nominee. Still almost a year to most primaries. A lot can (and does) happen in a year.
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Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,209 Likes: 3
enthusiast
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OP
enthusiast
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,209 Likes: 3 |
Mobilizing your base so more of them show up to the polls seems to be a good way to win elections.
2016 had low voter turnout.
Dems want to run an 'anyone but Trump' campaign and get an acceptable candidate for their donor class. Rank and file dem voters will fall in party line. I'm not convinced that will work just as it failed in 2016 but it's been the familiar game played for as long as I can remember with a couple of exceptions.
Sanders would be one of those exceptions, IMO. He'll get no traction with the wealthy and Hillary supporters. Question is will he have a deep enough bench of support to overcome those wealthy and Hillary Dems?
Last edited by chunkstyle; 07/16/19 01:02 PM.
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Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 19,831 Likes: 180
Carpal Tunnel
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Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 19,831 Likes: 180 |
2016 had low voter turnout. No it didn't. It had higher turnout than in 2012. American voter turnout never varies much... ![[Linked Image from cdn.vox-cdn.com]](https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zyZ7-j5f6QLSr9km5XwFxB-CKzo=/0x0:1800x1800/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1800x1800):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13456008/voter_turnout.jpg)
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
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Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 19,831 Likes: 180
Carpal Tunnel
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Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 19,831 Likes: 180 |
Sanders would be one of those exceptions, IMO. He'll get no traction with the wealthy and Hillary supporters. Question is will he have a deep enough bench of support to overcome those wealthy and Hillary Dems? I've got another theory...The Press doesn't like Sanders. The Press controls public opinion. I'm a Hillary supporter and he's got plenty of traction with me. I can't speak for the wealthy but that money is mostly going to the DNC and PACs rather than to individual candidates. But the shine is gone off of Bernie just like it did with Beto. He'd be doing himself a favor if he got out after Iowa and endorsed Warren. I'm disappointed about both of them but have to move on as my early bets fail to pay off. It's eight months until the Iowa caucuses. Warren's star is rising. I'm fine with that. Harris does nothing for me, an able politician but not somebody I want to see elevated to the highest office in the land.
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
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Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,209 Likes: 3
enthusiast
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OP
enthusiast
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,209 Likes: 3 |
True that. Clumsy way to bury the point.
Trying to say you have to turn out your base in greater percentage than the other party. There's a million charts and graphs and they all point to something but I'm still standing on mobilizing your base in greater numbers.
I recall Democratic turnout was lower than Republican in 2016. Might be wrong on that too.
Trump has smartly kept his voters foaming and howling for 3 yrs now. He can count on that base of support to show up.
It will be up to the Democratic machine to turn out it's base in large enough percentage (agreed, where you really have too!).
Clearly, that did not happen in 2016. Recall the Hillary machine was hoping for Trump to win the Republican nomination as they believed he would be easier to beat...
I think the Democrats are at risk of repeating the same mistake in 2020.
Last edited by chunkstyle; 07/16/19 04:45 PM.
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Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,209 Likes: 3
enthusiast
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OP
enthusiast
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 3,209 Likes: 3 |
Not that it matters but I believe the Democratic party is incapable of transforming public opinion into political support as effectively a Republican do.
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