Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Where have all the conservatives gone?

Righto! It's not like I've ever been wrong y'know.....

Gotcha. I don't think Trump can win it in 2020, but I also think the Democrats could lose it if you know what I mean. Much like 2016, when the GOP nominated Trump, I resigned myself to a Hillary Clinton Presidency. I was shocked when she lost. I never seen that coming.

As long as The Dems keep the eye on the EC prize and forget about National polls - we're good.

I highly doubt whomever is the Democratic nominee will ignore Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania like Hillary did. Michigan and Pennsylvania had gone Democratic six straight presidential elections, Wisconsin in seven. That is until 2016. It was a long shot Trump would win just one, but all three? That's an anomaly that can only be explain by the lack of interest Hillary showed in all three. Perhaps she took all three for granted.

Depending on who is the Democratic nominee, I think the states of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona are in play.

There are only a few ways the upcoming primaries and general election can turn out. I've noted in the past that early frontrunners often do not win. Biden was like comfort food and led from the start. But there was no substance to his campaign. No new ideas, no excitement. Nothing but a politician in his twilight years who reminded folks of Obama but without the hope for change. Just an old codger who's not sure what town he's in, or who he's talking to, or why.

I knew from the start that Biden was going to be a problem. At this point I figured we'd be looking at Biden, Bernie, and Beto. I had given Warren up as unelectable. Beto faded fast but Warren surprised me. Bernie peaked in 2016 and he's doing exactly as I expected him to this time around. The single digit candidates will remain exactly that and would be doing the rest of us a favor if they'd drop out and endorse one of the frontrunners.

So we've got milquetoast Joe, socialist firebrand Bernie, and a lady who claims to have plans that will help out working folks.

I think the candidate with a plan will come out on top in the end.

So my pick for the Democratic nomination is Warren. Not because I love her or her plans but because I think her campaign will resonate with voters. Her slow, steady rise in the polls and promises of sugarplums for the working class are gonna take her to the top.

Donald Trump is deeply unpopular among every demographic except die hard Republicans. He has kept his base happy by insulting and offending everyone but his base. How many of those who voted for Trump the first time have become disillusioned with his leadership?
How many are tired of the corruption and the hatred he spews? How many right leaning voters will sit home rather than vote for 4 more years of this? And how many will vote for the Democrat because really, we all want change for the better and Warren is promising just that.

I really just can't see this race turning out any other way.

At this point, I don't see the Democrats losing. But there is a full year to go with many unknowns between now and then. If Gallup is right, that six point advantage in party affiliation the Democrats held in 2016 has fallen to two. With Gallup's monthly reports it has been between 2-4 point advantage all through 2019. Even so, Trump and the Republicans can't win without winning independents.

The fact that Trump has continued to have a small lead among independent voters throughout this year when it comes to the generic presidential polls, does give him some hope.

But the presidential race is a state by state election. In this case the electoral college favors the Democrats. I don't think Trump can win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan again. He caught those state democrats off guard in 2016, perhaps thinking Hillary had them sown up. He won't do that again. Also Trump's approval in such states as Iowa, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia has dropped at least 10 points giving the Democrats an excellent shot at them. The same for Florida.

You could be looking at a landslide, but then again. We know a majority of Americans don't like Trump, but that was the case in 2016 also. 60% of all Americans viewed Trump unfavorably, yet he won. Why, Hillary Clinton was viewed unfavorably by 56% of all Americans. The first time in our history or since Gallup and Pew Research started keeping track of these things that a major party's candidate was view unfavorably by over 50% of America. Goldwater back in 1964 held the previous record at 47%.

So how does your top three Democrats stack up in the unfavorable column vs. Trump? Today Trump comes in at 42% favorable, 53% unfavorable. Biden at 39/49 favorable/unfavorable, Sanders 43/45 favorable/unfavorable, Warren 40/42 favorable/unfavorable.

With a full year to go, those numbers don't mean much, but they do let you know where they stand today. Perhaps those numbers show you that I may be out of touch with America, I like Biden, would support him against Trump. I don't care for either Sanders or Warren and would vote third party against Trump. I won't be voting for Trump. It does seem I hold Biden in higher regard than most Americans and hold Sanders and Warren in lower regard. Such is life.

I don't put as much faith in polls as you do. Remember 2016? And how wrong the polls were? Even if every voter who voted for Trump does it again he will not win. He didn't really "win" last time y'know...he attained the office through the vagueries of the electoral college.
Trump haters are going to wipe out that little hat trick this time around by showing up in every district of every state.

I prefaced my prediction with the caveat "If nothing drastic happens..." So, yes, things could go haywire with my little plan. But I don't think they will. Florida has a million or so new Puerto Ricans who hate Donald Trump passionately. He called Haiti s hithole. We have a large Haitian population too, who might have sat out any other election. They won't sit this one out. Georgia pissed off all the black folks in the state and there will be retribution. Wisconsin learned its lesson, Pennsylvania got tricked but they won't be fooled twice.

The polls are pointing in this direction but not saying it out loud. Because they can't take into account the anger that Trump has aroused and the way that ire is going to translate into victory for Democrats and Social Democrats all across the country.

I don't think Trump will win but I do believe that as in 2016 the Democrats will lose.

So how do you imagine the next four years with President Trump at the helm will go? I know you must be excited at the prospect of further destroying all our relationships with our allies, the world economy, American farmers, and democracy in general. As long as libtards get owned the consequences are worth it aren't they?

If Pres. Trump is, as you say, "destroying all our relationships with our allies" how is he able to ask them for favors which you want to impeach him for? If Trump's trade policies are hurting American farmers why are they supporting him? NY Post CNBC According to the IMF the world's economy has been improving but it does see the economy's growth slowing down a little. IMF Maybe you need to look in your crystal ball again. Or maybe help the economy and buy a new one?