Originally Posted by Greger
I don't put as much faith in polls as you do. Remember 2016?
The polls were right if one read them correctly. The final RCP averages of polls had Hillary winning the popular vote by 3 points. She won it by 2 point. Now one must remember those polls all had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. Hillary's 2 point victory was well within the margin of error.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Now how newscasters and political pundits predicted the election is beyond the polls. Using state polls RCP had Clinton with 203 electoral votes, Trump with 164 and 171 in the toss up column.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

If one is interested in elections, one should ignore all adult polls as we know on average only 55% of them vote. One may pay a bit more attention to polls who poll registered voters, then again 65% of them vote. The polls I pay attention to are the Likely voter polls where 80% on average vote. Still you don't know who or which candidate those 20% supported or answered they would vote for.

Trafalgar which polled Pennsylvania on 5 Nov 2016 had Trump leading by one, in Michigan Trafalgar had Trump and Clinton tied. In fact all the late polls from 1-5 Nov showed the race tightening in those two states.

Wisconsin, no polling organization polled that state since 29 Oct 2016, which meant that poll was basically useless.

My take on all of this anyway.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.