Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues The Trump Administration The Impeachment of Donald trump

The “PR” has gotten so bad that the news is talking about the fake news as a breaking news story. Man, is that Orwellian, or what?

Brian Stelter on seeing through the smokescreen

I don’t think abject dishonesty and gaslighting during a serious impeachment process can be casually passed off as “partisanship”. As though the “side” that is doing the investigation is equally “partisan”, making it all just a political game with no rules or integrity. I might buy that perspective if it can be shown that the Dems are making up their facts like the Reeps are. But I don’t see any of that at the moment.

Working to corrupt a legitimate (even if partisan) process is deeply dishonest - if if Trump did not commit impeachable offenses, then let the investigation, and trial (if it comes to that), prove it.

It's up to the accusers to prove that impeachable offenses were committed. As near as i can tell the Republicans insist that no crimes were committed and that the impeachment process is a sham since there were no crimes.

If Democrats actually want to get a conviction they need to come up with some charges that will stick when it comes time to send it to the Senate. Without that they're wasting a lot of taxpayer time on this.

Republicans hold the key to conviction and as long as they think no crimes were committed there will be no conviction.

There is in the realm of 230 million eligible voters in the United States. One quarter of them have not registered to vote. Another quarter are Republicans. Something like 55 million. 65% of those are dedicated Trump supporters, for whom he can do no wrong. 35,750,000 people. That's his base. He got 63 million votes last go around. That leaves about 27 million Trump 2016 voters who are not fanatics. How many of those voters are likely to vote for him again? Probably the other 20 million Republicans who did so last time. My guess is about a third of the remaining 8 million voters. Let's just say 3 million. My prediction is he gets about 58 million votes this go around, assuming he survives impeachment (which I strongly suspect). If the Democratic nominee gets in the realm of 63 million votes (Clinton got nearly 66), they will win all the toss-ups. If, however, voting turnout is higher than the 57% of 2016, they could eclipse 70 million votes. That would tip many of the Senate races, too.

My head says 68 million to 60 million, D/R votes. My heart is still scared.

I agree with the premises, but disagree with the conclusion. REPUBLICAN Senators will not vote for removal unless they see it as in their best political interest.

It is up to the Democrats to demonstrate to the public that this sham of a presidency is too dangerous to continue. That is a harder sell than just proving guilt. They also have to face "let the voters decide" claims, and "it's relitigating 2016" complaints - neither of which is true, but sways voters. Until public opinion begins to swing dramatically - nearing 3/4ths territory - I don't see significant push to remove.

But... Trump will be on the ballot in 2020, and public testimony will persuade voters even if ads don't. If they demonstrate corruption strongly enough, it will move 10 million votes and may drive registration and turnout even in red zones. Turnout helps Dems. And Senators may become vulnerable if they bet wrong. Especially McConnell.

Can't look at it in broad brush strokes. Doesn't matter if 100M votes for a Democrat if the Mr Trump has a 1 vote margin of victory in all of the necessary states to win the electoral college vote. That he will not win the national popular vote (unless Stephanie Grisham tells you he won it) is a given.

Gotta get more granular and check out not just the battleground states but the one time flipped states and possible states which may flip to Mr Trump. The calculus for this may be a complex arithmetic problem with no simple clarity.

It might not SEEM related but Peter King announced he will not seek reelection today.

How is this related to the Trump impeachment?
Welp, seems a little while ago, a certain "anonymous" GOP congressman gave a furtive interview in the dairy aisle of a supermarket to conservative never Trumper Erick Erickson, and apparently it was strongly worded enough to burn your ears off.


Another condensation of it here:

THE MOST HONEST POLITICAL INTERVIEW YOU WILL EVER READ

Not long afterward, some internet sleuths deduced that the anonymous Congress Critter HAS to be Peter King.
And no, I can't seem to dig up the sleuthing part but I remember reading about the wagers and the arguments back and forth and it sure sounds like King to me.

Anyway, WATCH THIS SPACE because it could get very interesting, particularly if King makes any Forrest Gump references, which will be something of a dead giveaway.

On the president's uncanny electoral success...
"It's like Forrest Gump won the presidency, but an evil, really f**king stupid Forrest Gump.”

It's not gonna be much fun being a Republican congressman after 2020.

But is it related to impeachment directly? I kinda doubt it. Impeachment mighta been the last straw.

I think a failure to convict will actually be the last straw.

How about a failure to even impeach?
I realize that almost everyone recognizes how disturbing all of this is getting to be.
If we normalize Trump's actions, in any way whatsoever, that is forever. There is no reset from there.
And any man or woman who occupies the Oval Office in the future and chooses to use 'Trump-tactics' against their political adversary will be free to do so.

Not to mention turn most of civil society into a pack of vultures who would sell their own mother or their own baby in return for political gain right down to streetcorner level, and that's because once we've abandoned what Trump cultists hate most about ourselves, we become no different than members of a street gang or a cartel. The whole goddamn country would turn into a cartel, in our minds, our way of thinking, our way of relating to each other, the entire personality of America dies and is reborn as a pure kleptocracy.

If the President, any president, is excused for behaving like a gang member, then we are all gang members.
Somewhere between Idiocracy, Walking Dead and The Postman, there is a fate that awaits us.
If we normalize and admit and tolerate these things, then the plot of The Postman changes to where General Bethlehem wins.

I’m sure it’s no accident that Trump’s “family” business is called the Trump Organization.

He’s just expanding Donnie Soprano’s territory.