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The trouble with beating Trump isn't the numbers but the economy. People who don't like him will vote for him if they believe that their jobs are on the line. I think the term is "voting your pocketbook". The Republicans haven't even begun to have at it yet and I am not sure the numbers are all that important. I do know how trump is considered in predictit (https://www.predictit.org) ie. where the money is going. Trump is winning there (these sites are fairly accurate in outcomes - I tried my hand with 10 bucks a couple of years ago, still have one bet working and 14 cents cash!)
I REALLY want Trump gone as I consider him incredibly dangerous. When its time for him to go there are going to be problems I think. When I consider that his numbers are just like Hitler's when he took over and 40% of Trump supporters want congress gone so Trump can have his way I just get jumpy. I consider what happened to Venezuela, at one time in the top 5 richest countries in the world, it tends to make me think that bad things can happen here too. I am probably too paranoid but........
I am not against what the left wants to do, I just wish they weren't so stridently selling it because its a turnoff for a rather large group of voters. (tends to concern the elderly, the not committed, etc.)