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But that convention.... I think it’s gunna be rough.
Maybe...maybe not. It's too early in the voting process to start worrying about it. We're basically in a holding pattern until Super Tuesday. Nevada and South Carolina will likely add more confusion and turmoil but we should emerge with some clarity after March 3rd.
This is Bernie's chance to catch fire. His final chance. The stars and planets are aligned, the winds favourable. We just have to wait for the actual events to unfold...
At current, FiveThirtyEight has "No One" leading for "who will have a majority of delegates going into the convention" (with 42%).
Bernie is coming in second with 36%, and after that it's a steep drop to Biden at 11%.
I think the key question is: Do Anti-Sanders Democrats pull off what Anti-Trump Republicans couldn't, and unify behind a single non-Sanders candidate, or do three contenders continue to split them so that Sanders/Trump can continue to win with a plurality of support.
All you have to do is talk two of them into quitting.
None of them seem ready to do so.
It reminds me very much of the GOP side in 2016. Everyone wants to be the candidate others drop out to support against the insurgent who's interested in burning down the party, but who you think would be a disaster.... and no one who thinks that other candidate would be a disaster is willing to sacrifice their own campaign to stop it. Vanity, Obstinance, and Self-Interest.
