Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Campaign 2020 First Bernie Sanders Thread 2020

Yeah, that's what I'm smelling, too.

I think you are right, Greger, but only on the winning part. A large part of the Democratic Party has moved enough left to sway Congress in that direction. This is mostly in reaction to Trump, not because they support Bernie. He's only pulling about 27% of the votes in California, probably the most progressive state there is.

So don't expect a single-payer tsunami, but do expect ACA's problems to be fixed and a public option added.
Don't expect $15 per hour minimum wage, but maybe we get $12.
More states lowering state college and university tuition. More selective occupation student debt forgiveness.
More Solar rebates and fewer coal power plants.
Higher top tax rates for the rich.

You don't always get what you want, but sometimes you get what you need.

$15 is a need, not a want. I mean, if we want to keep our economy.

Bloomberg is out, Warren expected to drop out in the next 10 days.

416 + 415 = 831, the number of delegates Sanders will get if (WHEN!) California results are finally tallied.
I daresay the media's celebration of "Super Joe" might be a wee bit premature.

I've just been enlightened by David's Snarky Politics Group that California is NOT a "winner take all state" so my number may be subject to change.

I'm not sure where you got your numbers. Total delegates California can award is 415. California has 79 Super Delegates which can vote in round two, but not on the first ballot at the convention. With counting still going on in California, Sanders has been awarded 155 delegates, Biden 93, Bloomberg 14 and Warren 9.

For the most recent delegate count, here.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

If you're interested in the popular vote totals,

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_vote_count.html

RCP continuous updates these totals until they become official. This is with 90% of the vote or precincts reporting in California. still more to come. 144 more delegates will be awarded later.

I don't know if I'd say "America". I think what we can say is that the "Democratic Party" (or, at least, their primary voters) are willing to stick closer to the Status Quo than what Sanders was offering, at least, going by national polls, when that Status Quo seemed to be in the ascendancy.

This has a couple of implications:

1. Sander's theory of the election - that he could alienate centrist voters and swing voters and more than make up the loss by motivating waves of previously unconnected voters and the youth - appears to be in the process of being disproven. It can't even be accomplished - seemingly - within the Democratic Party, much less the General electorate.

2. Democrats may be mostly interested in General Election viability at this point. That would explain the shifts in the national polls that trailed primary victories. If so, that suggests that victory will be self-reproducing - Biden's wins on Super Tuesday, and the fact that the next few states may be Biden-friendly, suggest that Bernie could lose more going forward than even current polls show


However, Bernie is leading a movement. Biden is leading a temporarily-aligned coalition. Movements are much harder to beat; their members are more motivated, and it is very difficult to get them to break off. A week ago, we were having the same conversation, but with the names reversed.

I agree that a lot of democrats want a candidate that can beat Trump, which to a lot of them that is Biden, not Sanders. I also agree that things like Medicare for all, forgiveness of all college loan debts, praising Castro, was just too much for a lot of moderate Democrats.

66% of Democrats think Biden would beat Trump, 52% think Sanders would. Another interesting stat is Biden is the choice of 57% of black voters who make up a third of the democratic primary vote. 11% prefer Sanders, 18% preferred Bloomberg. So we have a disconnect, 27% of white democratic primary voters prefer Sanders to 21% for Biden, Warren at 22%, Bloomberg at 11%. This was taken before Bloomberg withdrew.

Sanders has a problem with the black vote and with moderate democrats. In 2016 Hillary won the black Democratic primary vote with 80% while sanders edged out Hillary among whites. So both in 2016 and in 2020, its the same problems for sanders, moderates and blacks.

I don’t think the Sanders Theory has a ‘alienate centrists’ component. I’m fact, many of his proposals are still favored by majorities of Democrats, Medicare for All being one consistently polled positively by majorities of voters in every Super Tuesday state. The establishment and media have worked overtime to make Sanders, supporters and his platform alienating to people.

Though there has been an active smear campaign against his supporters, his record of accomplishment in office, his proposals, and popularity thru the dominant corporate media landscape, he has done more than any insurgent has done within the Conservative Democratic party in decades.

Sanders lost heavily again in the black belt among older black voters but dominated the younger black voters. Biden is only winning aging Boomers here.

Sanders wins Latino voters of all age groups.

Has more women support of the other candidates, largest number of volunteers and outraised the rest of the pack.

The Dommed liberals came out in surprising numbers once the party coalesced around Biden. It was something that I don’t recall seeing in my lifetime, With no organization on the ground, no campaign presence and trailing losses from the previous states primaries, the corporate leadership was able two swing some remarkable points and state victories. A testament to the Pavlovian training imbued in large portions of the Democratic Party. Also represented by the ‘blue no matter who’ mindset.

The blow has been taken. The next round begins.

Sanders lost Texas by 32 points in 2016. He lost to Biden by 4.5 points on Tuesday. Biden was up by 10 or better for weeks before Tuesday. Voter suppression was a large feature in Texas and, like Iowa, inadequate resources fell heavily to precincts heavily favoring Sanders. Sanders still closed the gap by a respectable amount.

He won California by a large margin.

The contrast between Biden and Sanders should become much more stark regarding their Political records for voters to decide on.
Biden will be getting much more scrutiny with hardly anyone else on stage to take the attention off. That dynamic is gone now and he will now have to go into the late innings with no assists. Sanders has been under the hot glare for months now. He’s a grinder. He does the work.

It ain’t over till it’s over and it’s still close. Democratic Party appears to be willing to lose to Trump than win with Sanders. It’s now basically a new race between two candidates now.

For the Biden fans, he’s expanding his base as well:
Biden May Be Saving the Democrats

Always a good sign when you have Karl Rove’s endorsement...

I'd say that's the actual truth of it, closer than my own hyperbolic attempt.

But hey, life goes on eh? And the horse race is far from over.

Yeah I had written Biden off completely. You reckon it's gonna be 2016 all over again?