Originally Posted by Greger
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I don't know if I'd say "America". I think what we can say is that the "Democratic Party" (or, at least, their primary voters) are willing to stick closer to the Status Quo than what Sanders was offering, at least, going by national polls, when that Status Quo seemed to be in the ascendancy.
I'd say that's the actual truth of it, closer than my own hyperbolic attempt.

But hey, life goes on eh? And the horse race is far from over.

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A week ago, we were having the same conversation, but with the names reversed.
Yeah I had written Biden off completely. You reckon it's gonna be 2016 all over again?

Hm. Well, the parallel everyone has been drawing with the Democratic primary in 2020 is the GOP primary in 2016.

The Democratic Party has proven itself stronger and its aspiring leaders more willing to sacrifice personal grandstanding to benefit the party than the Republican Party saw in 2016. Buttegeig, Kloubachar, and Bloomberg all got out to endorse Biden to stop the insurgent campaign who viewed their own party with almost as much hostility as they viewed the other. At this point in 2016, IIRC, Rubio was still in the race (though he would drop a week later)*, Cruz was still in the race, Ben Carson was still in the race, and that pompous smug ass whose father was a mailman was still in the race, all of them splitting the non-Trump vote.

Each of the major non-Trump candidates (Bush, Rubio, Cruz) was working on the strategy that the race should come down to just them v Trump so they could win... and so each spent their ammo on the other at a critical point in the campaign. We saw this through Nevada, right up until the debate right before South Carolina.

At that point, I think, the Democratic 2020 pathway swerved from the GOP 2016 pathway. At this point, it looks like the insurgent is likely to be defeated.

The shift in 538's projections on the matter are dramatic.

But, as you say, this horse race isn't over. I've learned (bitterly) not to undercount the power of Movement Campaigns when they are up against shallow Coalition Campaigns.

Winter Is Coming