The reported new infection pace and fatality pace have remained essentially unchanged for 5 weeks - about 30,000 newly reported cases and 1900 deaths, daily. While there has been variation up and down, the 7-day average remains stubbornly consistent. I personally believe both reports are too low. But every day represents a new Pearl Harbor, and every two another 9/11.
I also believe the upper limit of fatalities is around 800,000, but I don't believe we'll ever get near that. My prediction a month ago was a lower limit of 80,000 and an upper of 160,000. Sadly, I now believe I was too optimistic. We'll obviously exceed the lower limit before the weekend is out, and we're months, at least, from gaining any semblance of control.
If nothing significant changes in the short term (in terms of preventive measures, or significant medical breakthrough), we'll exceed the upper prediction by summer- June 21. As I contemplate that reality,I get incredibly angry. The inevitability of a pandemic cannot expiate the reality that the gross incompetence of this administration has made every aspect of it worse.
