The reported new infection pace and fatality pace have remained essentially unchanged for 5 weeks - about 30,000 newly reported cases and 1900 deaths, daily. While there has been variation up and down, the 7-day average remains stubbornly consistent. I personally believe both reports are too low. But every day represents a new Pearl Harbor, and every two another 9/11.
I also believe the upper limit of fatalities is around 800,000, but I don't believe we'll ever get near that. My prediction a month ago was a lower limit of 80,000 and an upper of 160,000. Sadly, I now believe I was too optimistic. We'll obviously exceed the lower limit before the weekend is out, and we're months, at least, from gaining any semblance of control.
If nothing significant changes in the short term (in terms of preventive measures, or significant medical breakthrough), we'll exceed the upper prediction by summer- June 21. As I contemplate that reality,I get incredibly angry. The inevitability of a pandemic cannot expiate the reality that the gross incompetence of this administration has made every aspect of it worse.
I'm starting to feel like everything we've been through so far won't make a dent of a difference. We still have 95% of the people susceptible. We have community transmission worse than when we first locked down. So we're opening up, and will probably end up right at square zero and see exponential growth of the contagion, again.
Since we didn't use these few weeks of lockdown and flattening of the curve to significantly increase testing, PPE stocks, and ventilator capacity, one wonders what was the point, if we just open up everything again and see this thing flare up and overwhelm the healthcare system just like it would have happened a few weeks ago.
Other developed countries did implement a longer, better enforced, and more complete lockdown and are now collecting the benefits, with new cases and new deaths dramatically down. We had a half-baked lockdown, with wild regional differences, and we are so spoiled that soon we got bored and restless, and we're screwing up already. So, we never really brought down the curve, we just stayed for a month in a plateau above 1,000 deaths per day and above 25,000 new cases per day, and now we'll just go up and up to 3,000 deaths a day and who knows if even more.
Our stupidity will make of us the absolutely worst hit country on Earth, at least among the fairly developed countries (I shudder at what might happen in large and populous African countries, for example).
