Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Concerning prediction for the COVID-19 pandemic

As some of you know, I have been doing my own "Analysis/predictions" through the course of the COVID crisis. I have observed that the average progress of the infection rate has dropped from around a 25% rate in the early stages of the pandemic (March) to now, 2% growth - consistent over the last two weeks. My question, if someone with better analysis skills can enlighten me: could this be an artifact of just the sheer size of the spread to over a million cases? It may be that with the opening up of society this number could go back up, but I think what is going on is that we're reached a steady-state of the spread.

To my way of thinking that 2% is a direct result of the almost nationwide Stay-at-Home orders. It will be 2 to 4 weeks before we begin to see a rise in the infection/re-infection rates. I have had to go out several times in the last two weeks and about 25 to 30 percent of the people were not wearing masks and paid little attention to distance, Michigan currently has an 9.03% death rate.

Since March, I have kept informal track of the death rate for the US; it started at 1.26% and has steadily risen to the current 5.8%

Opening up + no vaccine + no effective treatment = more death. This time I expect all those anti-anything people and their leader to pay the price.

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He's trying to provoke attacks so he can be a hero and bomb the sh*t out of somebody. Iran is playing with him. Playing him for a fool. You've heard the old saw about Persia...they've never won a war, but they've never lost a negotiation. Trump isn't a strategist, he's a bully. His supporters don't want him to fight a war, they want him to beat somebody up. The browner the better.

Newsweek blamed Sanders voters for Trump's win in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

BERNIE SANDERS VOTERS HELPED TRUMP WIN AND HERE'S PROOF


https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-trump-2016-election-654320

I blame Hillary herself. Her laziness, from 1 Sep 2016 through 8 Nov 2016 Trump made 116 campaign visits, stops, rallies to 71 for Hillary. That 71 looks larger than it actually was as it includes fund raisers in deep blue California and New York. In Wisconsin it was Trump 5 visits to Hillary's none. That's right none, zero, nadda. In Michigan it was Trump 6 to Hillary's 1. Pennsylvania was closer, 8 for Trump vs. 5 for Hillary. Hillary just let Trump out work and out campaign her. Even in electoral vote rich Florida, 29 electoral votes, it was Trump 13 visits, stops to Hillary's 8.

Whereas Trump geared his campaign to winning the electoral college, Clinton strategy if one want to call getting more electoral votes than Obama a strategy, a very inept one. She spent way too much time, energy, money in trying to win Georgia, Arizona and Utah while ignoring her so called blue wall states. her own backyard.

Then there was the difference in the campaigns, Trump's was full of energy, enthusiasm, his supporters were willing to go to the four corners of the earth for him. Hillary's was more ho hum, lacking of energy and enthusiasm. In the end a lot of her voters weren't energized enough to go to the polls and vote for her.

The Democrats held a 6 point advantage in party affiliation in Nov 2016, but only a 3 point advantage among those who actually voted.

There's plenty of other reasons, but these are the highlights. I firmly believe almost any other democrat, alive or dead would have trounced Trump in 2016. Trump lucked out and drew Hillary, the only democrat that could have possibly lost to him. Even then, everything had to go perfect for Trump, the earth, moon, planets, the sun and even galaxies had to align perfectly for him to win. Somehow they did.

It's hard to know. We'd need to know how many new tests are being done every day. This info is available. Worldometer publishes daily the number of tests, but it doesn't keep a list, so the info disappears the next day. We'd have to write down daily the total, so that we'd see how many new tests are performed each day. I haven't been writing down these numbers, so I don't know.

Because, see, if that number remains a bit constant, say we do 125K tests per day and about 25K are positive, as the number of cases grows, the percentage that 25K represents of the total, drops. But maybe the infection is growing at a bigger rate, and we'd be seeing that if we were doing more and more tests at a similar rate. Say the infection is growing 4 times more than 25K a day, say, 100K a day. We'd need to be adding 500K tests a day to capture that. See the problem?

I absolutely blame the Bernie or Bust crowd. Yes, they helped Trump get elected.

Every time I said so there on DP where there are more of them, they all piled up on me to say the cause was Hillary's incompetency.

Well, yes, Hillary is the #1 cause like you said. But the difference in votes was so small that all causes are almost equally responsible for it.

Bernie or Bust. Bernie himself in his obstinacy and his refusal to concede much earlier, when it was already clear that he had no path to the nomination. Hillary's incompetence. Her stupid campaign manager who not only had the worst strategy but also clicked on a phishing email. James Comey's letter. Putin. Wikileaks. Sexism. And so on and so forth. But does that exempt the Bernie or Bust types? Of course not.

Just think of a group charged with conspiracy to commit murder. Say, 5 people. One purchased the murder weapon. The second one purchased the ammunition. The third one delivered the loaded weapon to the killer. The fourth one lured the victim to a back alley. The fifth one, the killer, then pulled the trigger.

Sure, maybe one of them is even guiltier, the 5th one, the killer who pulled the trigger. But each one of the other four played a role, and without their individual actions, the victim would have survived. So, all five are guilty. The guy who bought the ammunition doesn't get to say "oh, my part was small, I shouldn't be charged."

In this analogy Hillary is the guiltiest one, the one who pulled the trigger. This unsympathetic, non-charismatic, low-energy, arrogant, bad campaigner, incompetent candidate was the biggest factor in her own defeat, something I'm sure she doesn't realize.

But ALL other factors are also guilty and without them, Trump wouldn't be president today. The difference in votes in 3 states was so small, that any of these factors, if not present, would have result in Trump's defeat.

So, absolutely, the nincompoops who were Bernie or Bust in 2016 elected Donald Trump, and his 252 federal judges and 2 justices (which could get to 4 by the end of his second term) will hinder and crush their generation for, well, a generation. That serves them right.

I don't think the number of confirmed cases tells us much. We've always known the number of actual infections is much higher. Some antibody testing says much, much higher. I think the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is pretty suspect as well, but at least it's representative of the real number. I think you have to look at excess deaths over the seasonally-adjusted average to get the real picture. The disease is not getting much more or less lethal. We are not improving in patient care much. That number is about twice the official death count.

We can look at some of the most successful countries to see their Case Fatality Rates:

South Korea 1.7%
New Zealand 0.8%

So I suspect the excess death rate divided by 0.008 to 0.017 gives you a very good estimate of infections.

Everything you typed is true and valid and yet 11 days out Sec Clinton held a large lead in national polling .... some would say insurmountable .... and then the bombshell. Within days her large lead evaporated.

None of the reasons mentioned, taken singly or in concert, explain the rapid drop in her polling following Dir Comey's re-opening of investigation.

Of course thus could have been a coincidence and not causal ... so why not mention it????

I don't know whom you're replying to but if it's me, I did mention James Comey's letter.

EDIT - Oops, now I see that there is a small print showing to whom people are replying, and indeed you were talking to Perotist, not to me, sorry.

Sounds like the detailed CDC guidelines for reopening have been shelved by the Trump Administration:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ap-exclusive-admin-shelves-cdc-041502978.html

It reminds me of the movie Idiocracy.

Why are we one of the only countries in the world doing everything wrong? The answer, we helf a self-centered narcissistic idiot as president.

The Bernie or Bust crowd should be ashamed. Among other factors, they brought this upon ourselves.

I hope they don't repeat the mistake in November 2020 but I think they will.