I don't think the number of confirmed cases tells us much. We've always known the number of actual infections is much higher. Some antibody testing says much, much higher. I think the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is pretty suspect as well, but at least it's representative of the real number. I think you have to look at excess deaths over the seasonally-adjusted average to get the real picture. The disease is not getting much more or less lethal. We are not improving in patient care much. That number is about twice the official death count.
We can look at some of the most successful countries to see their Case Fatality Rates:
South Korea 1.7%
New Zealand 0.8%
So I suspect the excess death rate divided by 0.008 to 0.017 gives you a very good estimate of infections.
