Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

You're ignoring the fact that the Trump presidency has been like no other.

With his blatant disregard for both law and order, this chaotic president may or may not get a boost from these riots caused by out of control law enforcement.

Is Joe Biden the anti law and order candidate? Is he calling for violence in the streets? Or is he acting like a leader trying to restore law and order.

Threatening to use the US Military to attack peaceful protesters, threatening to release the dogs of war within his own nation...

That aint law an order, that's civil war. There's a big chunk of America that wants civil war, wants democrats killed, and wants a dictator, not a president.

Trump is unique and it seems anything involving Trump goes against conventional wisdom and historical precedence. I should have learned that a long time ago. Trump trying to be the law and order candidate seems to have backfired on him. As usual he overdoes it. Trump's overall approval has dropped from 46.5% down to 43.5% since 25 May along with only 32% of Americans approving of his handling of the protests, 51% disapprove.

In the past during protests that have turned violent, turned into riots with looting, burning and killing, the law and order folks have benefited. Not this time. At least not as yet anyway. I seem to have been wrong on this by looking back to historical similar events.

Here's another interesting article.

"Vote for Trump? These Republican Leaders Aren't on the Bandwagon."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/vote-trump-republican-leaders-arent-152342707.html

It was this that garnered most of my attention. From the article.

“A lot of people that voted for President Trump did so because they did not like Hillary Clinton. I don’t see that happening with Joe Biden — how can you not like Joe Biden?”

What's interesting here is that in 2016 25% of of the electorate disliked both major party candidates. Trump won 47% of those to Hillary's 30% with the rest voting third party. Those who had an unfavorable view of Hillary went to Trump 81-11 while those who viewed Trump unfavorably went to Hillary 77-15. There's no doubt numbers wise that those who disliked both candidates, Hillary was the strongest disliked. In other words, one might disliked both Trump and Hillary, but Hillary was the more disliked than Trump enabling him to garner more of the dislike vote than Hillary.

I don't see that happening in 2020.

George Bush, Colin Powel, Jim Mattis, John Kelly, Mitt Romney and many more high falutin' Republicans have had their fill of this president.

I think it's gonna translate into a blue rout, a coup of sorts.

Voters only thought they wanted Republican leadership.

Turns out there is no such thing, unless your destination is the dismal abyss.

Each individual has their reasons why they vote the way they do. Some may seem asinine to others, but whatever reason the individual has is important to him.

The reason Trump is president is the choices, decisions and actions by both major parties back in 2016. The Democrats just happen to nominate the only candidate, alive or dead that could possibly lose to Trump. What you or I thought about Hillary is pretty much irrelevant, it was what America as a whole thought about her. One probably could narrow that down to the three deciding states if one had a mind to.

People tend to vote out the incumbents or the party in power when they get mad, angry at something the party in power did that they didn't like or want at the time. Americans like switching the presidents party out every 8 years. With the exception of Reagan/Bush's 12 years stint, no party has held the presidency for more than 8 years.

You had FDR/Truman for 20 years. Then IKE for 8, then JFK and LBJ for 8, Nixon and Ford for 8, Carter for only four, followed by Reagan and Bush for 12, Bill Clinton for 8, G.W. Bush for 8, Obama for 8 and now Trump for probably 4.

I think the voters in 2016 didn't want neither Trump nor Hillary Clinton. But were forced to choose. I suppose one could say only Democrats wanted Hillary, only Republicans Trump while most independents, 54% disliked and didn't want neither one. Independents gave Trump the White House, voting for him by a 46-42 margin over Hillary with 12% voting third party, against both.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

If you're a Democrat for 2020, you can take solace that Biden is disliked a whole lot less by independents than Hillary was. In the world of both major parties shrinking, their share of the electorate dropping, winning the independent vote is becoming much more important than in the past. In 2006 only 30% of the electorate identified themselves as Independents, 37% Democratic, 31% Republican, today Independents are up to 40% with only 31% Democrat and 28% Republican.

It will be interesting to see in 2024 how that affiliation split goes. If Biden and a Democratic congress can fix everything Trump broke, a lot more independents might decide to call themselves democrats.

The history of party affiliation goes up and down, but we can look at averages thanks to Pew Research and Gallup. The Republicans have been constant since Eisenhower, 25-30% of the electorate. From a low of 21% in 1975 to a high of 32% during Reagan. The Democrats have been totally different. Averaging 45% from FDR until Reagan, then dropping down 35% until Obama and now at 31%. Twice the Democrats hit a high of 51% in 1961 and 1964.

Over this time we seen independents rise from 18% in 1950 up to 40% today. Independents hit 30% in 1974 and averaged 30% through 2006. Since then independents have slowly climbed steadily up until they reached 40% today.

As for 2024, it seems to me the normal range in this modern era of polarization and ultra high partisanship is the Democrats somewhere between 30-35% while the GOP retains their 25-30%. One thing is for certain, the dissatisfaction for both major parties are at an all time high. 55% of all Americans view the Democratic Party either somewhat or very unfavorably while 61% view the GOP either somewhat or very unfavorably.

This is the old only Democrats view their party favorably, only Republican view their party favorably while most independents view both parties unfavorably. Of course, independents should be no surprise there. If they didn't view both parties, if they didn't dislike both major parties, they'd belong to one or the other.