Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

I'd like to add some additional info to my post above when it comes to independents. Now history shows those who identify as Republicans or Democrats will vote for their candidates 90% of the time on average.

As for independents, they're not one solid group. But at least three. Independents lean Democratic, Independents lean Republican and pure or true independents with no leans.

Independents which lean toward one party or the other average voting for the party's candidates they lean toward usually between 70-75% of the time. That's still high, but is a much lower percentage than those who affiliate with either major party.

The rough figures in those three categories, 40% of the electorate are independents, 40% of independents lean Democratic, 40% lean Republican, leaving 20% with no leans, pure or true independents. These numbers go up and down, it just so happens that on 13 May 2020 this was where they stood. Very unusual as normally the Democrats have a slight advantage in independents leans over the GOP and the pure or true independents usually are around 15% instead of 20%.

So I'll give you two sets of figures.
Straight party affiliation, 31% Democratic, 28% Republican, 40% independents
Party affiliation counting the leans, 47% Democratic, 44% Republican 8% pure or true independents with no leans.

2016

A lot can be said about it. Trump won the electoral college by 70,000 votes in three states. Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million. So it's not so much who voted for who, but where they voted.

Instead of Republicans, Democrats, and independents The vote was actually between rural, suburban, and city.

If it was up to me I'd eliminate political parties altogether. They haven't served this nation well. Increasing numbers of independent voters speak to this problem.

I agree with this. I always thought the increase in independents was a good thing. But what has happened is the more moderate factions in both parties have deserted them leaving the hard core ideologues. Hence a Trump vs. Hillary Clinton.

Hence where compromise and working together have become four letter words. Where the goal of each party is to stop the other party from accomplishing a thing. I do think our two party system worked beautifully when both parties had their conservative and liberal wings along with moderates. When independents made up but 20% or so the electorate. There was no straight party line votes back then. There was also respect from both parties for the other party and their members. Where the goal of each party was a secure, free and prosperous America, although the path there differed some.

This isn't the case today. Each party views the other party as this nation's number one enemy, that the other party is out to destroy this nation and only their party can save it. I have become so disgusted with both, I have basically dropped out of politics except for my monthly election forecasts.

Some nightmare scenarios for the November elections

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...he-the-november-elections-193855154.html

Well the RNC sure is not talking 2020 and President Donald (...) Trump* is the guest of honor.

New York Time Article - G.O.P. Platform, Rolled Over From 2016, Condemns the ‘Current President’

Wouldn't it be funny if Trump's campaign rallies and Republican Convention manage to kill enough of his fans that he loses same swing states? Not by horrifying people, but actually killing the voters he needs to win.

The fact that Republican bigwigs will all attend the convention, and go unmasked, might just give us President Pelosi by the end of September. The fact that Republicans tend to meet and socialize with other Republicans just might create a huge Republican outbreak, and most Covid-19 fatalities are older men.

A few packed campaign rallies should get the convention crowd infected enough for a mass-spread event.

The only way it won't make it to the convention is if the rallies infect so many that even they start to actually believe that Covid-19 really exists. Then, again, I am not sure they are bright enough even then. Their strong point is that they have the capacity to march in lock step, apparently, forever. Regardless of why, or any bad results therein.

busybody Attorneys in Tulsa are trying to force attendees as the Trump rally to wear masks as they would prefer to not have a super spreader event. This is just not fair to our dear leader Trump! I say let him have at it! Damned pussies!

The timing will be tight. The Tulsa rally is on June 20th and the convention starts August 24th. It takes people about a month to die from Covid-19 and it may have an incubation period before any symptoms of 5-10 days. People who do get serious cases may be contagious during that 4-10 day pre-symptom period and not know it. So if everybody who went to the rally self-isolated for 14 days, then there would be little spread. But of course they won't.

I guess the real question is how many cycles of incubation and spread can they get in before the convention. If they go to group meetings, church, GOP insider get-togethers, etc. Then they could get the convention attendee infected population high enough for a truly massive superspread event.

Trump's character

"Americans' Views of Trump's Character Firmly Established"

https://news.gallup.com/poll/312737...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Trump's in your face, bullying, obnoxious persona is in my opinion the main reason he will lose in November. Not his policies or what he has done or hasn't done as president, but his unpresidential behavior. Strange as it may seem, looking at independents who are fairly split on Trump's policies and stances on issues, for some, against some, but really dislike him as a person. Only 24% of independents like Trump as a person, 48% dislike him. This is important as folks usually don't vote for someone they dislike.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/vgqowgynze/econTabReport.pdf

Now we know by historical averages that 90% of Republicans and Democrats will vote for their party's candidate regardless of who it is. Independents are finicky and at times have huge sways depending on their likes and dislikes and perceptions. Trump is in the white house because he won the independent vote in 2016, he'll probably be gone as he's about to lose those same voters. In my opinion anyway. Biden's big advantage over Hillary, he isn't as dislike by independents as Hillary was.