Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

I really haven't seen a lot of leftward movement in the Democratic Party.....We've got Bernie and AOC but neither of them represents the DNC or has any influence to speak of within the halls of congress.

My own feeling is that independents are not a vast centrist wellspring of voters disgruntled by the socialist vs fascist goings on within the parties but instead a growing number who are disgusted with the failure of government to accomplish anything over the last few decades.


I love it when you type in a southern accent.

That's entirely wrong as you explained earlier. It's not about the ideology it's about the money. Industry controls government

Wealth controls government. Corporations control government.

Voters get a single vote every two years. Corporations vote every day with their millions of dollars in lobbying funds. They get to meet face to face with our representatives to plead their case and put a thick envelope into their hand. Voters can't compete and have largely given up.

Partisans once believed that the Republican Party was the business party and the Democratic party was the workers party.

That's not the case anymore, both parties are far more concerned with the state of industry than their representation of the people.

I hear you. There was a time, the time of the big tent Democratic Party where they represented the workers, the GOP was the country club party. The party of business. Now that has all changed in my opinion where neither represent the worker or even the people as a whole. Both major parties owe their hearts and souls to corporations, wall street firms, lobbyist, special interest groups, mega money donors, etc as that is where they get most of their money to run their organizations and campaigns.

You're correct about independents not being monolithic. I suppose that is why independents are unable to establish a viable third party. Too much disagreement among them outside of the fact they dislike both major parties. Some are way left of the Democratic Party and some way right of the Republican Party. I also agree they see neither party as able to govern the country as in governing for all of America. They govern according to their base and their base's agenda, not as an American agenda, in general terms here. The problem is their base is shrinking.

As ideology wise, that depends on where on stand on the political spectrum whether they or you or me view the parties moving more left and more right. It also depends on the issues important to them. I'm probably more in the middle, a belief in the happy medium than either extreme left or right. But you're correct, how one views the movement depends on their political perspective.

From what I can tell so far on this site, you're way to the left of me. There's a lot of things you would favor I wouldn't. Also I think quite a lot we would be in total agreement. Probably mostly on social issues.

I still believe that if either party would take a few steps toward that happy medium that they could become dominate for the next 20-30 years. Much like the old big tent Democratic Party which controlled the House for 56 out of 60 years. That included 40 straight years.

I don't know how much credence to give this, but it's interesting and I think entirely possible.

"Trump in ‘fragile’ mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don’t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News"

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-fragile-mood-may-drop-152718908.html

His numbers aren't going to improve and he stands no chance of winning.

So now we just watch the snowflake melt.

As the numbers stand now, I totally agree with you. You also have this:

Trump has lost his senior advantage. And that could cost him in November.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-lost-senior-advantage-could-104438826.html

The problem with thinking the election is in the bag at this early point in time is the official campaign season doesn't begin until 1 Sep. End of June Polls are interesting.

2020 Biden up by 9, results unknown
2016 Hillary up by 5, lost although she won the popular vote by 2 points.
2012 Obama up by 5, won by four
2008 Obama up by 7, won by eight
2004 Bush up by 1, won by three
2000 Bush up by 5, won although he lost the popular vote by 0.5 of a single point.
1996 Bill Clinton up by 16, won by 9
1992 Bush up by 6 over Bill Clinton, up by 1 over Perot, lost by 6
1988 Dukakis up by 5, lost by 8
1984 Reagan up by 8, won by 18
1980 Carter up by 3, lost by 10

Kind of a mixed bag there. Carter, Dukakis, G.H.W. Bush and Hillary who led at the end of June all lost. But Hillary is the only one to lose since 1992 and she won the popular vote. So perhaps having an early lead at the end of June is more important than it was in the past. Time will tell.

Progressive Groups Urge Biden to Pick Warren in Open Letter That Doesn’t Address Race. You may get your wish Greger.

I wouldn't be upset if Tammy Ducktape got the call but Warren is still my favorite.

Pero, I figured this election was in the bag long ago. I'm usually wrong about these things but Trump seems to just be digging himself deeper and deeper into a hole he can never climb out of.

It has nothing to do with ideology and everything to do with idiocy.

Trumps real problem is that he keeps promoting things that piss off or kill his voters. Being so hostile to old people, poor people, and the military is just crazy for a Republican. I really think if he can hang in there for the election, he could have the lowest electoral college vote total ever.

I'm strictly a numbers guy, crunch them and go by what they tell me. I leave my heart and feelings out of it when it comes to doing my forecast. I also watch independents much more than either major party's base. Independents usually decide close election. If the election is going to be a landslide, independents are always on the side of the landslider by a huge margin.

Without winning independents by an average of 12 points in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida, Trump wouldn't have become president. Biden has been either even or up by a couple among independents in all those states until this last month. Now Biden has increased those leads between 5-8 points among independents. Even in my home state of Georgia, Biden has a lead among independents which puts Georgia in play.

Of course all of this is as of today. The way I tabulate it, if the election was held today, it's Biden 352-186 in the electoral college along with winning the popular vote by 10 points. Trump is doing an excellent job of turning red states blue which includes a few senate races. I'd say the Democrats pick up between 5-8 senate seats, but the House remains pretty stable with a seat or two going either way. The house staying basically the same is due to the Democrats having more seats in what I describe as at risk of switching/competitive seats vs. the GOP. The GOP lost most of their competitive/at risk of switching seats in 2018.

Unlikely. In 1984 Reagan won everything except Minnesota and DC, which I believe is the biggest electoral win.

I think something like the 1964 results when Goldwater took just Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina is more likely, though the states will probably be: Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia and South Carolina.

Though Trump’s ability to destroy things should not be underrated, he might even manage to kill or impoverish enough people that even the zombies lose faith in him.