Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

So I see Trump is raising trial balloons to see how a pardon for Roger Stone goes over. I bet his lawyers are begging him NOT to do it. If Stone accepted such a pardon, it would mean he has to admit guilt. Then he has no claim on a Fifth Amendment right to refuse to testify about his crimes. If he did commit those crimes, it implicates Trump as an unindicted co-conspirator. He could be the star witness at Trump's trial after January.

It's a terrible idea to pardon your fellow conspirators. Let's hope he's stupid enough to do it.

The Supreme Court rulings are huge wins for the Rule of Law, and the fact that "Trump's Judges" joined the majority and ruled against his crazy legal theory of total immunity is very important: It really means that Trump does not have any Justices on the Supreme Court who feel obligated to serve him over the Law and the Constitution. He may have a conservative majority on the court, but when he just makes up ridiculous crap, he's going to lose.

Specifically, they said that the New York State prosecutor can subpoena anything needed for his criminal case with regard to money laundering charges in the payoff to Stormy Daniels. Trump cannot use a presidential pardon, executive privilege, or Presidential immunity to evade state subpoenas or even state charges. I expect state prosecutors to act quickly. They also said that Congress has the right to subpoena within reasonable limits. (They have actually already met those requirements.) So access to his taxes and accounting data should move quickly through the lower courts.

It’s really beginning to look like Gorsuch is an actual judge.

Here's another interesting article on some 2016 Trump voters who changed their minds.

"Ashamed' Trump 2016 Voters Explain Why They’re Ditching The President"

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/republicans-change-mind-trump-ad-070157598.html

I was one of 9 million third party voters in 2016 voting against both Trump and Hillary Clinton. If that election were held today, I'd still vote against both. But in 2020, Hillary isn't opposing Trump, Biden is. So Old Joe is my man. Had Biden ran against Trump in 2016, I think at least half of those 9 million voters who were so disgusted with their choice of candidates that they decided to vote for an unknown third name on the ballot instead of choosing between two evils or voting for the major party candidate they least wanted to lose, not win, but least wanted to lose. That they would have voted for Biden in 2016, at least half if not more.

Bottom line, Candidates matter. The good things is that it seems the Democrats have learned that lesson from 2016. At least this time around.

I've been saying that for a while. Kavanaugh is a drunk, but at times he is a judge, too. Trump thought he nominated judges who would always support him. Surprise! He should have looked harder. Naomi Roa seems to be one of the few "Trump judges". I wonder what she'll do after Trump is gone. Will she keep on being highly partisan? Will she quit when every decision she makes is outvoted or overturned?

As an old foggie, I have seen when those up for reelection in congress try to separate or distant themselves from the president in order to give one a better chance at reelection, it doesn't work.

"Republicans are really fed up': GOP increasingly splits with Trump as his polls drag"

https://news.yahoo.com/republicans-really-fed-gop-increasingly-100032722.html

One usually loses some support from those voters who are loyal to the president, it also doesn't help gain votes from independents. The opposite party folks aren't going to vote for you anyway.

Bottom line, if you're going to get buried by supporting your president, you're still going to get buried by trying to distant yourself from your president. What this all tells me, the Republicans know they're in deep doo doo when it comes to November.

This from Rasmussen.

"The new survey finds Trump with 74% of the Republican vote. Biden has the support of 79% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, it’s Biden 48%, Trump 36%."

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...urce=criticalimpact&utm_medium=email

Going by history, the percentage of Republicans and of Democrats who are saying they'll vote for their candidate is very low. By November, those percentages will be up to their historical average of 90%. But what stands out is the independents, the non-affiliated voters as Rasmussen puts it. 48-36% in favor of Biden. The basement strategy for Biden while letting Trump be Trump is working just fine, especially among independents, swing voters, the non-affiliated. Don't interrupt or stop you opponent when he's going down hill. Let him go.

History
89% of Democrats voted for Hillary in 2016, 92% for Obama in 2012. 89% for Obama in 2008, 89% for Kerry in 2004, 87% for Gore in 2000.
88% of Republicans voted for Trump in 2016, 93% for Romney in 2012, 90% for McCain in 2008, 93% for Bush 2004, 91% for Bush in 2000.

I'll stop there as Perot, a well financed third party candidate drew plenty of votes from both parties in 1992 and 1996. So you can see the historical average of roughly 90% of the two major parties voting for their candidates. I don't expect that to change in 2020.

And they've no one to blame but themselves. They've had many many opportunities to break from Trump. I'm betting that Mitt Romney will be handily re-elected. Others will struggle...many will fall.

Every four years, on one day only, public opinion matters.

Obama faced more opposition from congressional Democrats than Trump has faced from his cowardly minions. He has been given free reign by congressional partisans in the hopes that their draconian policies would be driven forward by his non-traditional style of leadership.

Looks like those hopes are going to be relegated to the ashbin of history along with their careers.

Will we see the end of the filibuster in the first 100 days?

McConnell has warned Democrats not to do it!

If I was a congressional Republican, I wouldn't be worried about my future career as much as my future being alive. Have you been watching the news? Wisconsin GOP Rep. Grothman suffered a coughing fit that briefly stopped his speech at the Republican Party of Wisconsin State Convention. Hardly a mask in sight.

Trump rallies and the GOP convention will go down in history as mass extinction events. Most GOP senators are in the high mortality categories, too.

"The New York Times
Georgia. Ohio. Texas. Democrats Tell Biden to Go Big (He's Being Cautious)."

http://readerrant.capitolhillblue.c...;Main=18795&Number=327258#Post327258

As well he should be at this point in time. Hillary campaign strategy back in 2016 was to get more electoral votes than Obama did. Thus she spent way too much time, energy and money trying to win Georgia, Arizona and Utah. She ignored the so called blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Perhaps she thought she had those states in the bag.

She ended up not only losing Georgia, Arizona and Utah, but Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as well. I'd remind Biden that the goal is to get to 270, anything extra is icing on the cake.

The article talks about Texas, Ohio and Georgia. Go after Ohio, its a pure swing state where both parties strength is pretty much even. I'd forget Texas and Georgia, at least for now. While both states looks winnable, they also look winnable to Hillary in 2016.

I'd concentrate on making sure Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania return to being part of that blue wall. Florida and Ohio would be next on my list. But only when I secured Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which would put Biden over 270. Ohio and Florida are must campaign stops and a must to try to win. Letting Georgia and Texas stew some, seems wise to me. That is if one doesn't want to make the same mistake Hillary did. You're elected president if the count is 270-268 just as if the count was 500-38.

But I'm not an advisor to Biden, so carry on Joe.