Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

1984 it was Reagan 525-13, Nixon in 1972 came close 520-17. Nixon lost Massachusetts and D.C.

You forgot the mountain states, Idaho, Montana, North and South Dakota, Wyoming, Alaska. The fact that Biden now has a two point lead in Georgia and is tied with Trump in Texas, to use an old G.H.W. Bush phrase, Trump is in deep doo doo.

You’re right, I did forget the mountain states and the Dakotas.

Montana might even be in play. And who knows, even Utah if Romney becomes a never-Trumper and actively campaigns against him.

Here's another interesting article. Myself being one of those who voted against both Trump and Hillary in 2016 that is supporting Joe Biden this time. I'm not alone.

"They Voted Third Party in 2016, but Now They've Settled on Biden"

https://news.yahoo.com/voted-third-party-2016-now-121228659.html

There were 9 million voters who cast a ballot for a third party candidate in 2016, 6% of the electorate who were so disgusted with their choices of Hillary Clinton and Trump, they were more than willing to vote for just a third name on the ballot even though they knew that third name had no chance of winning.

You want to compare the third party vote to past elections, 6% in 2016, 1.5% in 2012, 1.2% in 2008 and 1.0% in 2004.

Sounds like it's going to be quite the humiliating shellacking for Trump.

Here's another, talking about Rasmussen.

"Trump’s Opponent Not Important to Most Anti-Trump Voters"

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...urce=criticalimpact&utm_medium=email

I've seen where even Republicans are saying they would vote for a tuna fish sandwich, over Trump. Makes sense: A tuna fish sandwich wouldn't do anything good, but at least it wouldn't do all the positively evil stuff Trump has done.

It has been expressed that as many as 15% of Republicans would vote for Biden. I've been going over the numbers. Which I would say that was completely wrong. Right now 91% of Republicans plan on voting for Trump, 4% for Biden. Question 60.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/k05rp8ded6/econTabReport.pdf

Back in 2016 88% of Republicans voted for Trump, 8% for Hillary.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

That's pretty far away from the expressed 15%. So it was on to party affiliation. Back in November 2016 Republicans made up 27% of the electorate, Democrats 32%, Independents 37%. Today the figures are Republicans 25%, Democrats 32%, independents 40%.

So what I see happening is the anti-Trump Republicans have moved over into the independent column, they'd didn't become Democrats. That could explain the rise from 88% to 91%, the drop in party affiliation. Some Republican anti-Trumpers becoming independents, the pro-Trumpers remaining Republican.

It'll take a bit more research, but taking the numbers at face value, this seems to be the case.

Hilarious news: There is a lot of controversy about mail ballots in Iowa. It turns out the Board of Elections in Blue counties is going to send every registered voter a mail ballot. In Red counties, the local Board of Elections will not. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot!

Of course the same problem exists everywhere: Elderly people generally have voted for Trump, and are going to be afraid to go to polls and stand in line. In fact, they may not even be able to stand in line for hours. So they either go to polls but have to give up and go home (or to the ER), or they never even try to vote. So I suspect Trump's anti-mail ballot campaign is going to backfire bigtime.

Likewise the "closing polls" voter suppression strategy: Send everyone to a few polls to wait in line and only the young and healthy will vote. As usual, Trump's fear of something (People of Color voting) leads him to a "solution" that works against him. He may be evil, but at least he is an idiot!

Like Krugman said years ago: The Trump administration is malevolence tempered by incompetence.

Oh well...Joni Earnst needed to go anyway.