I think an argument could be made that Trump is a high flight risk defendant, so no bail for him. My main thought today, is that somebody will probably kill Roger Stone before he gets indicted for some of his many other crimes in February. Commuting his sentence seems like it fits with a RICO prosecution of the whole Trump gang. So lots of people would love it if he was sleeping with the fishes.
It's safer for criminals to serve their sentences, in terms of assassination. Everybody feels they have been punished, though maybe not enough. But pardons or commutation leaves people feeling they got off because of corruption, and need to be punished extra-legally.
