Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

I've always been of the opinion that the e-mail scandal was already baked in. Although I wouldn't rule it out. Hillary's 7.1 point lead had already begun to fall prior to the letters release had already fallen to 3.9 on the 28th of October. The trend was already favoring Trump.

It's interesting that on the 28th you still had 12% of the electorate either undecided or saying they were going to vote third party, Johnson and or Stein. that was 7% saying voting third party, 5% still undecided. So it's possible it did influence that small portion what was still undecided. There's not enough information available to either confirm that or to deny it.

I have some national figures about those who made up their minds in the last week, but they're basically useless since the election was decided in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Nationally it was 43% Clinton, 43% Trump 14% third party or no answer.

In my state data, Wisconsin only has for the last month, useless for figuring out the last week or since 28 Oct. Pennsylvania has a bunch of N/A's for the last week and Michigan is the lone exception. Those voters who made up their minds in the last week in Michigan went to Trump 50-39 over Clinton with the rest voting third party.

Bottom line, there isn't enough hard evidence or numbers available to either confirm or deny the effect of Comey's letter. Trump could have lost Michigan and still won in the electoral college, so Michigan is useless. The big state is Pennsylvania with all its N/A's. If you go by the existing Trend and the national numbers, one would have to say no. If one goes by Michigan, then the answer is yes. So it's an unknown factor either way or no factor at all. I can't help you.

I haven't been a Democrat for 50 years and I am still uneasy.

The numbers don't characterize the psychological nature and proclivities of Mr Trump. He is a narcissist. He has already for a second time in as many elections stated he will wait and see how he will act on the results. Narcissists see themselves as winners in a delusion of their own making. He is in a position to make that happen. In recent report of possible election scenarios where Mr Trump refuses to leave the WH, it is clear he is a danger to democracy.

We have always depended on people doing the right thing and voluntarily stepping down when the results were in. But this person has no inkling what the right thing is, unless it coincides with his delusion. Democrat pundits keep talking about blowouts. I don't think it matters what the results are if Mr Trump refuses to leave the W. What are you and any group of people or the courts or Congress going to do .... use harsh language to force him to leave?

If he physically barricades himself in the WH, surrounded by a cadre of loyal military personnel, who will physically remove him. If anyone tries it could be and may well be a coup. Mr Trump is not trustworthy to do the right thing and I think every citizen in America should be worried and concerned of the possibility.

The emails were released in July/August in 2016. The James Comey incident to which I am referring is the 'reopening' of the investigation announcement just 7 days prior the election. THAT action by James Comey that close to the election had a negative effect her ability to be elected POTUS.

That's why I gave you pre-28 Oct numbers vs. Post 28 Oct numbers. That's why I concentrated on the last week of the election and not any period prior. Perhaps you should reread my post. Trump had already narrowed a 7 point deficit down to 4, within a tenth or two tenth's of a point by 28 Oct. The trend since 14 Oct and preceding 28 Oct was going Trump's way. He knocked 3 points off Hillary's lead during that two week time frame, 14-28 Oct.

Regardless, there's no numbers available that can prove his reopening on 28 Oct influence or didn't influence any voters. I think the e-mail thing was already baked in, you don't. Fine. No big thing. But I did try to find the data to prove it one way or the other, that data just doesn't exist as I stated in my previous post.

I remember feeling my heart sink when that hit my newsfeed.

Like someone walking on my grave.

Yup, me too.

Observation and common sense with the ability to analyze cause and effect will suffice.

There were a lot of factors involved in Hillary's loss that should have been a blowout.

But Comey's announcement was a biggie. The emails were baked in as you say, Pero, but some who had grudgingly decided to ignore them changed their minds when the FBI publicly announced that new information had come to light and that it was re-opening investigations. Such an announcement generally precedes the arrest and convictions of the parties involved.

And many who might have voted for her did not. Because back then being investigated by the FBI was a serious thing. If the Feds were called in then you knew some serious sh*t was about to come down.

The FBI didn't publicize or talk about investigations back then unless it was a sure thing. Comey's announcement was as devastating as a judge's decision in court. She was guilty.

And Donald Trump promised to get rid of that kind of corruption. To drain the swamp of the elites and the corrupt financiers and their lobbyists. To make America great again.

And here we are.

Comey knew what he was doing too. He wasn't a newcomer to the game.

As far as I can tell the electoral college makes or breaks the deal for the candidates. Hillary was advised, by the Democratic guys who claim to know, to ignore states like Michigan because they were owned by the Dems. They hopefully learned better this time around. Then there is this: https://news.yahoo.com/biden-campaign-suppressing-hispanic-vote-180950158.html Seems the idiots may still be in charge making bad decisions?

I keep wondering - what in the hell are the Democrats doing?