Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

So why was a morbidly obese 74-year-old man with a spray-on tan and a ridiculous hairdo that looks like it used to be a Beehive-do that someone sat on, elected?

Why? If you're serious it was the candidates chosen by both parties in 2016. Both choose unwanted candidates by America as a whole and independents especially.

One in Four Americans Dislike Both Presidential Candidates

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

If you scroll down you see 24% of republicans viewed both major party candidates unfavorable, 20% of Democrats and a very high 54% of independents. Only 4% of Republicans had a favorable view of Clinton, 4% of Democrats saw Trump favorably. Independents, 30% had a favorable view of Clinton, 33% of Trump.

So the election devolved into a decision of who one disliked the least, voting for the candidate one wanted to lose the least, not win, but lose the least. especially among independents as 90% of Republicans and Democrats are going to and did as history has shown, voted for their candidate regardless of who that candidate was.

You actually had only about a third of all Americans wanting Trump to win, a bit over a third wanting Clinton to win, all the rest regardless of their reasons, voted for the candidate they wanted to lose the least. They wanted both to lose. This latter was especially true for independents, the non-affiliated group with either party, the less to non-partisan and definitely less ideological. Call them the middle of the roader's. 12% thought it important enough to go to the polls to vote against both major party candidates, some 9 million voters because they disliked both so much, they were willing to vote for a candidate they knew didn't stand a chance of winning. Disgust rained among independent at the choices made by both major parties.

So what's the breakdown this year? Neither candidate is worth a flying poke at a rolling doughnut. I suppose there are people who actually WANT Joe Biden to be president. I'm not among them.

I know there are some who WANT Trump to win a second term. I'm certainly not among those either.

A beauty contest? Between septuagenarians? Is there gonna be a swimsuit portion?

America loses if either candidate is elected. But I'm afraid the America we have known and loved is lost anyway.

There is a serious difference between the two. Biden, for instance, will-not-kill-you. Trump, on the other hand is working hard at it - right-now! I have no idea how many of his own he has killed but a lot, I suspect, as they actually believe his stuff about covid-19 just going away, children don't get it, its a hoax, etc.

My suspicion is that he has killed a lot of his own but I would really like him gone before he goes to work on me (or even you!).

Okay, as of 4 Aug 2020. First all adults, Trump 40% favorable, 57% unfavorable. Biden 43% favorable, 49% unfavorable. Second, registered voters, Trump 41% favorable, 58% unfavorable. Biden 49% favorable, 49% unfavorable. Third, I always like to include independents and independents only as they make up 40% of the electorate today, Trump 35% favorable, 57% unfavorable. Biden 32% favorable, 51% unfavorable.

Go back to 2016 with Hillary Clinton, election day. She was seen 38% favorable, 56% unfavorable, but among independents and independents only, 27% favorable 70% unfavorable.

Side by side, nationally registered voters, favorable, Clinton 38%, Biden 49% favorable, national registered voters, unfavorable, Clinton 56% unfavorable, Biden 49%. Finally, independents, favorable Clinton 27%, Biden 32%, independents unfavorable, Clinton 70%, Biden 51%.

51% isn't anything to crow about in the independent unfavorable column, that's a majority of independents who view Biden unfavorably. But compared to Hillary Clinton's 70%, that is great news. Biden is doing better among the beauty contest voters. Today's or as of 4 Aug 2020, Trump is at the same 57% unfavorable among independents as he was back in Nov 2016.

Fact is though, independents are still very much in flux. they don't like Trump much, but are still up in the air over Biden.

"Up in the air" is just another way of saying they don't like him.

His VP pick is important and I think he's gonna blow it.

I totally agree, Biden's VP pick has the possibility to make or break him especially because of his age and what seems a lack of vitality. The question is does Biden concentrate on the progressive wing in choosing his VP, a wing that is going to vote for him anyway, perhaps add a point or two to his popular vote total. Or does he take independents into consideration, make a pick that would be attractive to them. A pick with the idea of winning the independent vote which according to Gallup and Pew Research make up 40% of the electorate today.

I do think most have forgotten it wasn't the progressive wing or Sanders supporters that cost Hillary the election. It was independents which she totally ignored. Independents put Trump in the White House especially when it came to the three deciding states which in all three Democrats had at least a 10 point advantage in Party affiliation. Trump won the independent vote in Pennsylvania 48-41, in Michigan 52-35 and in Wisconsin 50-40. Nationwide it was 46-42 Trump over Hillary with 12% voting third party against both major party candidates.

Yes, I do think the right choice could lock up independents, the wrong choice would send some who now say they'll support Biden back to Trump or into voting third party once again. Very important, indeed.

Please. Trump is 74, can't drink a glass of water with one hand, can't walk down a 3-degree ramp and slurs his words.

Perceptions my friend. Politics is all about perceptions. Trump seems much more vigor and energetic than Biden. You can ignore how people, voters if you will perceive the candidates, whether their perception is right or wrong, it doesn't really matter. It is their impressions and perceptions that will decide this beauty contest. Especially how independents vote.

As history shows, Republicans and Democrats are going to vote for their candidate on average, 90% of the time. Independents drift wildly from one side to the other and at times going a third way, ala 2016.

Rachel Maddow notes an particularly specific warning from the director of the ODNI's National Counterintelligence and Security Center that "pro-Russia Ukrainian parliamentarian Andriy Derkach is spreading claims about corruption" as part of Russia's efforts to manipulate the 2020 U.S. election against Joe Biden and in support of Donald Trump. Derkach has not only been using Rudy Giuliani to spread his claims, but Republican senators Ron Johnson and Chuck Grassley have also been receptive to the Russian tactic.