Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

I think you completely fail to grasp the scope of independents in the US. Fully 42% of eligible voters in the US DO NOT VOTE.
These are the "pure or true independents".
Some lean right, some lean left, none care about the dysfunctional failure of US governance enough to weigh in on election day.

A vote for any candidate is a vote for their party because no candidate stands truly independent.

I agree no major party candidate stands alone. It may very well be a vote for the party also, but a lot of independents don't look at it that way. I should call them swing voters instead of independents. We do have approximately 80% swing voters who lean toward one party or the other and they'll vote for that party's candidate around 70% of the time.

Then we have the last 20% who can flock to one candidate, party one election and then flock to the other candidate, party the next election. We've seen independents go Democratic 57-39 and four years later go Republican 56-37.

So perhaps we're not seeing these swing voters voting for a party as voting against a party.

Or voting for a charismatic candidate...

Charisma can pull the non-voters off the couch.

Charisma wins elections. The most charismatic in my life time was JFK, Reagan, Bill Clinton and Obama. All won twice except JFK and I sure if he hadn't been assassinated, he easily would have won again in 1964.

There was no exit polling or a breakdown for the 1960 presidential election, so I can't include how swing voters/independents voted for JFK or not.

1980 Reagan won independents/swing voters 56-31 with Anderson getting 13%.
1984 Reagan won independents/swing voters 64-36.
1992 Bill Clinton won independents/swing voters 43-28 with Perot getting 30%.
1996 Bill Clinton won independents/swing voters 50-30 with Perot getting 17%
2008 Obama won independents/swing voters 52-44

I bet they would have repealed the 22nd Amendment, if JFK was willing to serve a third or even fourth term. I remember it well. Camelot...

Trump has charisma. His people are loyal and believe in him.

Joe Biden might once have cut a dashing figure, but his day is long past. Reminds me a bit of Prince Philip.

Maybe if Biden guarantees college loan forgiveness around mid October and a $15 minimum wage....he's already announced a plan to drop Medicare to 60 years, which might buy him some XGen votes.

I'm mid-range Gen-X, that wouldn't persuade me. My company's healthcare is pretty gold standard. I don't plan on retiring until I'm 70.

Trump? Charisma!? Nope. What President Donald (...) Trump* has is braggadocio and slime. JFK had charisma, Obama has charisma. President Donald (...) Trump's* base supporters are deluded and equate lots of money as the measure of success.

* Impeached

I've always been in favor of repealing the 22nd amendment. As soon as any president is elected to a second term, he's a lame duck. But I do think the people should decide whether or not they want a president for a third time around. Those who might have ran for a third term and been successful include Eisenhower, but his health problems, heart attacks would have prevented him from doing so. Reagan also had his health problems, Alzheimer. Neither IKE nor Ronnie would have sought a third term.

Bill Clinton, he was healthy, fit, but I think too many scandals and womanizing would have brought him defeat. Obama if he wanted it, a third term was his. So just 4 presidents since the 22nd was passed would have qualified to run for a third term, 2 wouldn't have for health reasons, although both IKE and Reagan would have been granted a third term by the people if they ran. I don't know or have any idea of Bill Clinton or Obama would have sought a third term. Nonetheless, I'm still in favor of repealing it.