Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

And at least 50% of those people will vote for Trump. He promises to protect them from the nightmare coming under a socialist Democratic dictatorship.

I said awhile back that if these protests continue, there could be a backlash. I sat on that as until now, I didn't see any. But that backlash may be just beginning.

"New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Will Kenosha backlash swing suburbanites to Trump? What the data says (so far)"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yaho...what-the-data-says-so-far-154424284.html

Keep in mind, the article states, "So Far." That is exactly correct in my book. Is this a trend that will continue or just a one time blip on the radar screen? It bares watching.

Biden has seen a 7 point lead on 14 Aug in Wisconsin drop to 4 points as of 1 Sep. Biden's 6 point lead in Michigan dropped from 6 down to 2 over the same time period. In Minnesota, Biden's 13 point lead is down to 5. These are the states where the protests have taken place and Michigan, next door.

Oregon hasn't been polled recently, so it's hard to tell what is happening there. Biden had a 20 point lead in July. One should expects ups and downs, all elections have them. Give this two weeks and we'll take a look at it again. By that time we should be able to tell if this is a new trend or if it is just the normal ups and downs of any election.

As near as I can tell going through all the state polls, just Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota seems to be effected by the protests. Now the suburb vote, that's but one poll. If it was nationally, one would expect a tightening of the race in the national numbers. So far that hasn't happened. The tightening seem to be in just 3 states. Biden had a 7.7 point lead nationally on 14 Aug and a 7.2 lead on 1 Sep. Considering the margin of error, that basically is no change.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

But of course, all the violent scenes he's showing in ads are happening now under his administration. This is all his doing. Remember, according to Trump, Biden is just hiding in his basement.

Is Biden an evil mastermind, or is he paralyzed by dementia?

Running on "restoring law and order" only works for challengers, not for incumbants.

All of those mini-strokes that Trump has suffered recently has caused him to forget that HE is the current POTUS - not ol' Joe.

If the virus that is Trump kills America, will people argue that he shouldn’t be blamed for its death because there is a co-morbidity of the stupidity, bigotry, and gullibility of his supporters?

I think you're forgetting that these protests and the violence have occurred in Democratic run cities and states. That the problem within these cities are basically a local problem that can't be solved by the federal government.

The federal government doesn't run the Kenosha, the Minneapolis, the Portland police departments. The federal government doesn't hire people to become police in those cities and they don't tell the different police department how to function or fund them. The city and state do that.

Only the local government in these cities can solve their own unique problems with the police. Stopping the violence is first the Mayor's and the cities problem. If they can't then the Mayor can request assistance from the governor which has the tools to stop the violence. Then the city, the Mayors, city government can address reforms in their own police departments.

If the governor can't handle it, then he can request federal assistance. Which so far as I know hasn't happened.

I know, being an election year blaming Trump and or Biden is what politicians running for office do. It's what political parties do, they blame the other party. But in short, yes, I think being a law and order candidate as an incumbent in this unique case can work. At least in the states where the violence is occurring. The narrowing of Biden's lead shows this. Nationwide, that's another matter.

I don't think Trump has the finesse to play the law and order card effectively or properly. So it could backfire on him. He just isn't political savvy enough. He's like a bull in a China Shop.

I suspect that Oregon was probably going to reduce their Biden numbers and then came that 1000+ interstate car caravan of White Nationalists. That, I suspect, may have sent a different message that woke up some?

Until Oregon gets polled, there is not telling. But as Democratic as Oregon is, Biden has no worries there unless the Cascadia Fault moves and a mega Tsunami swamps Oregon and Washington.

Florida, on the other hand, is a swing state. I just saw an article which postulated that whomever wins the Hispanics in Florida will win the presidency. Cubans are Republicans and they make up a huge number of South Florida voters.

Puerto Ricans on the other hand...don't love Trump so much.

I totally agree on Florida. Here the latest there.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Yep, Cuban-Americans have a very long history of voting Republicans vs. the Puerto Ricans which have been always Democratic. Strange how that works.

I wonder if the Cuban-Americans have a long memory still not forgiving JFK for not sending in the bombers as promised during the bay of pigs?

Asians also had a long history of voting Republican until 2000 when they became very Democratic.