Capitol Hill Blue Forums Science and Technology Health, Medicine & the healing Sciences Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century?

I think we should all consider who is doing what. Drug companies, for instance, tend to be a bit greedy (to say the least). Whoever gets there first is going to make A LOT of money! So, I would not be at all surprised if they wanted to kinda cheat a tiny bit to get there first. Now throw in 8 or 9 other drug companies all in the race as well. Then mix in the Trump way with the
CDC and the FDA and it gets even a bit more scary. When all is considered I get a tiny bit wary of the whole thing.

From what I can see I am certainly not alone in the concern thing. March seems a bit right to me. The Chinese, however, have been giving their army shots for a few weeks now and that's just for starters. The good thing about theirs is that they have already said they would produce and share their product with the entire rest of the world. I know of organizations that have said that but China is, I think, the first nation to say that. I also suspect that they won't let theirs go until its right as I am sure they really don't want to kill off the rest of the world?

Just thinking.............

I think what we will have by December is a bunch of data from Brazil. Vaccine makers are running trials there because it has a very high infection rate. That is very beneficial for testing. What you want to see is nobody vaccinated getting Covid-19, and the control arm getting it at the same rate as the general population. That would be a perfect vaccine, and you could say it works pretty quickly. Less infection means you have to run the trial longer to get enough infections in the control arm.

And from Phase I and II trials, it looks like all the vaccines in Phase III trials will work, more or less. Most of the leading contenders are vaccinating against the same antigens, thanks to the Chinese releasing the virus gene sequence so early. What we actually need from the Phase III trials is to know what are the side effects. We don't want another Swine Flu vaccination that paralyzes people.

And you're suggesting that Americans trust a Chinese vaccine? America...? The land of antivaxxers and Republicans?

Naw...Trump has said we'll go it alone on the vaccine thing and that way he can keep buying every bogus dose produced by companies owned by his donors. And they'll be announcing the good news sometime in October and giving all the credit to Donald Trump's wise leadership on this and many other unfair crises foisted on him by the fake news and radical left democrats.

I have read that Brazil has been experiencing a mysterious lessening of Covid-19 and nobody seems to know why. I just checked postings for the last week. Seems that my initial thought was wrong and Brazil is in serious trouble. They have, however, opened up to anybody who wants to test vaccines. As I understand it there are currently three vaccines being tested, right now, with more to follow.

that Being the case signs should start in a week or two?

Here are a couple of recent posts:
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...ed-to-know-today/photostory/77872588.cms

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...atment-of-severe-patients-301123021.html

I don't think there is ANY vaccine maker that is purely American. Even the Moderna vaccine will be mass produced by their partner Lonza in Switzerland. AstraZeneca is Swedish and is having 20 partners in many countries manufacture it's Oxford vaccine. Biological E, an India company, will manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. On and on it goes. The one saving grace is that the American front companies will have their reputations on the line if their foreign manufacturers screw up.

Actually, a lot of "American" drugs are manufactured in India these days. In terms of drug trials, the FDA likes to see trials that are run in America by reputable doctors who have too much to lose by faking data. NOT Chinese trials or Russian trials that are hardly even trials at all.

Drugmaker Pact

The story headline: Leading US drugmakers will sign a pact to produce a safe coronavirus vaccine amid concerns about shots being rushed to market before the presidential election


So I think Trump's October Surprise will be just like his claims: "We have plenty of tests, and anybody who wants one, gets one". He will CLAIM a vaccine is ready, but Phase III trial subjects are the only people getting it. Most experts in vaccine trials think the beginning of 2021 is more realistic. With all the anti-vaxxer fury, they don't want a vaccine safety failure. It would be devastating for their business.

Rather stunning preprint out just a few days ago.

Vitamin D Treatment in Covid-19

Note: Calcifediol is 25-hydroxy Vitamin D, the substance your liver turns Vitamin D3 and D2 into and is measured in your blood.


Those spectacular results were from a large dose of Vitamin D in the form it circulates in the blood, but given orally. It looks like they did not measure the 25-hydroxy Vitamin D levels in the blood (though they measured a LOT of other things). Perhaps they thought that would break their "blindness" in the trial. But just to give you an idea, that's about 106 ng/ml. I used to take about that much D3 every day. I take a bit less now. But that was just the first dose. Their follow up doses are less than I take and given days apart!

Everybody got hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, though these patients were actually too late to benefit from it, and they have now stopped using it.

But these results mean that high-dose (not over-dose) Vitamin D therapy is by far the most effective treatment we have for serious Covid-19.

I have been continuing my analysis of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 through the population (A bit OCD, this one), and the positive and fatality reporting. Short form: 22 days straight of 60,000+ new cases/day from July 14-Aug 3; 13 days 50,000+; then we're in the 17th day of a string of 40,000+ days. Fatalities followed a similar pattern, but delayed by two weeks: Starting July 29, 1000+ fatalities/day for 24 days; 900+ fatalities/day from August 22-Sep 2; and now we've entered a stretch of 800+ fatalities/day.

Each of the last two surges is clearly anchored by a holiday. Memorial Day, May 25, and Independence day, July 4. As we enter the Labor Day weekend, I expect a similar surge beginning about 10 days after the weekend. This period, however, is a bit more complicated because of school reopenings. (NYT, Subscription) - "dozens that have seen spikes in recent weeks as dorms have reopened and classes have started. Many of the metro areas with the most cases per capita in recent days — including Auburn, Ala.; Ames, Iowa; and Statesboro, Ga. — have hundreds of cases at universities." See, e.g., Coronavirus Cases Spike on College Campuses as Students Return: Track Them Here Coronavirus Cases Spike on College Campuses as Students Return: Track Them Here (NBC, local)"Nearly 17,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported at more than 100 colleges and universities in recent weeks as students return to campuses while the pandemic rages on."

Similar results are occurring at public K-12 schools, although I am having a harder time tracking that data (Hmm, wonder why, Betsy DeVos?). Many school districts and universities have already suspended classes and moved to online learning. I expect similar results throughout the fall.

Florida schools recently re-opened but our Trump acolyte governor has decided not to release the school related covid numbers. That will likely change as case numbers rise as we witness a few deaths among teachers and family members and as lawsuits emerge.

Governor DeSantis was at first popular among all Floridians, I once said I would even vote for him next time around if he continued his exemplary leadership on Florida's water issues. Sadly when the 'rona arrived he chose to follow the president's lead and Florida became a Covid laughingstock.

I think the college campus fiasco is because almost all of those young people were living at home, and most of those had their exposure controlled by parental supervision. Then they go off to college and freedom from parental control, and this is what happens. They are thrown together with strangers in dorms, eat communally, attend classes in person often in closed air-conditioned rooms with large groups, and some even throw parties. Totally predictable.