Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

Normally, a 7 to 8 point lead isn't that big a lead this far out. But it can become so when there are very few undecided's. In mid October 2016 Hillary was up by 7 points, but there was still 15% undecided. Biden is up by 7.5 points as of today with only 7% undecided.

Hillary was at 46% and ended up at 48%. Trump at 39% ending up at 46%. So 7 out of that 15 went for Trump, Hillary got only 2 while the rest voted third party. The late deciders went to Trump.

Biden is at 50% today, Trump at 43% rounding off. In other words 2020 is a whole different ballgame than 2016, especially in the amount of undecided's. The lesser amount of undecided I think is huge this go around.

Don't underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate.

1. Durham report which will be massaged by AG Barr to say Pres Obama killed Pres Kennedy .... and not only will Trump supporters believe it but all of the stupid and ignorant will.

2. Johnson/Grassley/Graham political opposition research funded by American taxpayers will conclude VP Biden not only stole money from Ukraine but personally planted the bugs which were used to spy on candidate Trump .... and again etc etc

Despite any polling analysis from Perotista, it is still too early to be counting either chickens or eggs.

You're absolutely correct. From the numbers today, the polls, they let you know how things stand today. Not 7 weeks from today. The numbers look very good today for Biden. In fact they've looked good for the past three months. Biden steadily between 48-51 in the polls over that 3 month span. Never high, never lower. Trump between 40-43, again never higher and never lower. I've never seen an election or campaign where the numbers have remained as steady with so little movement than this one. Perhaps it is all CoronaVirus related with little to no rallies or campaign visits to speak of.

Biden's lead over the last three months has been steady also, no lower than 7 points and no higher than 9 points. In 2016 Hillary's lead fluctuated from 6 points in June down to Trump taking a 1 point lead at the end of July, back to 7 points in mid October, down to 1 before finishing with 3 point poll lead for Hillary which won the popular vote by 2. Lot's of movement 4 years ago. Hardly none this year in comparison. I think having 20% undecided and in flux caused that movement 4 years ago whereas 7% this year, everything been pretty steady.

But there are still 7 weeks to go, anything can happen.

The Dems know this Durham Report is coming and it looks so shady that even a top deputy for Durham quit last week because of it. The Dems need to have their refute story together and be able to circulate the story quickly in the press.

As I wrote earlier, the GOP "October surprise" is yet another boring reading of "Joe Biden, Eastern European Money Launderer," a one-act play by V. Putin.

When Joe becomes prezzie, Joe needs to read Trump and Barr for filth and the Library needs to be open.

Here's something I've been talking about, FYI

Biden’s Vulnerability

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/briefing/nfl-yoshihide-suga-oracle-your-monday-briefing.html

I predict Mr Trump will not concede if he loses. I predict he will not implement transition teams. I predict he will not attend the inauguration if he loses nor will he leave the WH. I predict he will have claimed not only a contested election but major irregularities which obviate him leaving the WH. He will have AG Barr file petition claiming election was compromised by China and Iran and therefore should be abrogated.

Now for all the optimism of a Democrat electoral win, I say it may be irrelevant to the greater issues of an existential threat to our democracy.

Congress can't force him out of WH. SC can't force him out of WH. You can't force him out of WH. He controls the military (and if he claims an electoral process which is invalid and he will), the military would have no choice but to follow his orders as long as they were no illegal. In this case they would be legal as he would still be the occupant of the WH.

Sometimes a win is not a win until the loser concedes. As a narcissist he is not a loser, and so would never concede.

But you see...that would be no surprise at all!

There's a reason they call it an "October Surprise", a revamp of an old scandal is no surprise.

There will be new developing surprises on the horizon soon...but not until September has passed.

Fairly safe predictions for the glass half empty crowd.

But Trump never has to concede and can claim anything he wants. A certain amount of proof will be required...his word as "president" is not enough to keep him in office once the voters and(hopefully) the Electoral College have spoken.

I expect he will fly to Mare-A-Lago prior to the inauguration where private jets and fast yachts will be able to whisk him safely away at a moments notice should things get gnarly in the courts.

The Trump Reality Show is about to be canceled.

Occupying the White House does not make you President. The Constitution clearly states that he's done on January 20th. Even if Biden was sworn in at some secret location, the video would be released immediately. Then all of Trump's orders would be meaningless, and any military person who obeyed them would be in great danger of serving a long time in the stockade. Biden would be commander in chief, and all the military would be his to command.

Trump would not be an occupant of the White House. He would be a trespasser. The location has no magical properties.

This is, I think, the Trump October Surprise. There are, however, problems. Right now nobody believes ANYTHING that comes out of the Trump camp and that also includes the United States Attorney General Barr. Same holds with the other side, nobody there believes anything unless it comes from either Trump or Fox and, if it does come from Trump, and is not in Trump's interest, they will ignore that too.

Seems to me that both sides are determined to think what they damned well please and devil takes the hindmost.