Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

Here's how we know that the GOP's "October Surprise" will be the Durham Report:

• The GOP saw how effective Comey's late-October 2016 announcment regarding HRC was.
• Bill Barr said under questioning by the Senate this past summer that he would not commit to not releasing the report just before the election.
• The GOP are walking, talking, rectums aka aholes.

Monmouth poll: Biden up 5 points on Trump in Florida

09/15/20

Here's all the latest Florida polling.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Your Monmouth poll has a MOE, margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 points. Almost 5 points which means Biden lead could be anywhere between 0.3 points to 9.7 points. Interesting, Florida Atlantic poll just the day prior to Monmouth had Florida in a tie.

The way I look at these things is going by RCP average which puts Biden up by 1.6 points, plus or minus a 3 point MOE. In other words, in my mind, Florida is a dead heat. Or utilizing the MOE, Trump could be leading by 1.4 points or trailing by 4.6 points. The truth is somewhere in-between those last two figures.

Until whose ever lead goes above the MOE, outside of the MOE, I consider it a tossup or a dead even race. That's me, how I look at these things. I also never trust just one poll when there are others which can be averaged out.

But, here's the thing...Flor-i-duh shouldn't even be a toss-up for Trump, nor should North Carolina. Both states should be firmly in the Trump camp...but they're not. THAT's the point.

The FACT that Mike Bloomberg choose to spend $100 million in Florida is not a coincidence. The move is totally to troll Trump.

(1) $100 million is exactly that Trump said he'll pull out of his own money to spend on the campaign. (As if! Trump spend money? He's so cheap that he squeezes pennies so hard that Lincoln squeals.)

(2) Florida is Trump's new "home" and it looks like he can't even win that.

Florida for the last 5 election has been decided by less than three points. It's went Democratic twice and Republican three times. Florida is the epitome of a tossup or swing state.

Now states like North Carolina, Arizona, Biden leads in both, along with Georgia and Texas which Biden trails narrowly, should be easy Trump wins. They're not.

If Biden flips just two states that Trump won in 2016, Arizona and Florida that would give Old Joe a 272-264 win. Now if Biden can keep a hold of Arizona, take Pennsylvania and Michigan, he can lose Florida and still come out on top 280-258. You can add Wisconsin to Biden's total as I don't see Trump winning the three deciding states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin a second time. 290-248 and the romp is taking place. Add North Carolina, another pure tossup along with Ohio it's 323-215. But I'm getting way ahead of the game.

So Flor-i-duh goes to the ReTHUGlicons 60% of the time. As I wrote, Flor-i-duh should be in Trump's corner, but it's not.

There are five ways Joe Biden can win:

1. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona: Biden wins all three states — his best option, given the political environment.
2. Michigan and Pennsylvania + two congressional districts — Nebraska-02 and Maine-02.
3. The Rust Belt: Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
4. Michigan and the Sunbelt: Biden carries Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina.
5. Florida +1: Biden carries Florida, getting him to 261 electoral votes. A win in any of the other battleground states would put him well past 270.

More than the options that you're presenting.

If you have to devise Goldbergian scenarios on how someone can win .... it means the race is too close to call.

I don't know that "being to close to call" has ever stopped anybody from calling a race.

I called it for the Democrats before the primaries. It was "too soon to call it" then.

But at this point...it's way closer than it oughta be. That's probably a good thing because a close race is gonna pull more voters off the couches, prompt more voters to fill in those ballots and get them in the mail.

All the indicators are pointing towards a Democratic sweep and I'm pretty confident that's what we're gonna see.

If you look back on 2016, you had days when Trump lead by 1 and Hillary as many as 7. Now Hillary lead from 1 Sep through election day from 1-7 points. Ending with a 3 point lead in RCP averages on election day, she won the popular vote by 2 points. That a gap or swing of 8 points that were in flux, Trump by 1 to Hillary's 7 point lead.

So far this year, Biden's lead has been between 6-9 points A 3 point gap or 3 points in flux. This is probably due to the number of undecided's and those stating they'll vote third party. 20% in 2016 until around 1 Oct vs 8% today.

There's no doubt Trump has closed a national 9 point lead down to 6 today over the last couple of weeks. Could that be because of the protests turning violent which some folks, especially in the suburbs wanting to feel safe are switching to Trump? That is unknown as it could be many factors which this is probably one.

Three weeks ago Biden led Trump by 9 points among suburb voters, today he leads by 6, 47-41. Nationally, regionally, Biden leads big time in the Northeast by 15 points and in the west by 19. But Trump has a slight 2 point advantage in the Midwest and the south. California explains Biden huge lead in the west, he leads Trump by 21 points in California, 25 in Washington state and 22 in Oregon. The east is explain by Biden's 28 point lead in New York, 34 points in Massachusetts and 21 in New Jersey.

Those states provide Biden his lead nationally. So this race may be much closer than anyone thought to include me. Regardless of Florida, I still don't think Trump can win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania for a second time.