Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

I can see where we may have a different view of polling.

I believe polling numbers have a low viscosity where the mere mention of a report detailing a perception of impropriety could exert a huge gravitational influence on those numbers ... but it only applies to Biden's numbers. Mr Trump's numbers have been and will probably continue to hover where they are, much like a high viscosity tar, until the application of the multi-fecta .... Sen Johnson report, AG Barr's attack on Pres Obama based on US Att's Durham;s report, Sen Graham's report detailing a cabal bent on political coup, and of course the coup de grace ... a vaccine just days before the election .... ahhh .... victimized by Pres Obama but savior of America.

I can imagine VP Biden's cheeks turning ashen through exsanguination of his polling numbers, all in a matter of weeks.

I think you are pretty much mostly spot on. The reason Trump and Co are trying to mock him into coming out of his basement is because running as Generic Democrat You Have Heard About Before But Who Never Spearheaded Anything That Ticked You Off Personally, while Trump continues to periodically self-immolate, is the best strategy.

Napoleon put it best: Never interrupt an enemy when they are making a mistake.

That being said, I think the bar is slightly higher than that for Biden to lose. If he publicly demonstrates serious mental incapacity (for example, if he falls asleep during a debate or begins to shout garbled nonsense like a dementia patient), that could cost him the election. He has to be both

Alive

and

Minimally capable of functioning as an adult human being.

Well then we're in luck! Biden has functioned at that level all his life...

Trump, on the other hand...

why the double standard???

Mr Trump fails miserably and yet his supporters believe it is value added ...

I've said before, polls give you a snapshot of where things stand today. I like RCP as they average out all the recent polls minimizing the effect of a skewed poll. Yet, that snapshot doesn't mean November, it means today.

As for the future, you can look for trends which a long period of polls will provide. Perhaps looking at the last six months of polls, there hasn't been a trend. By that I mean Biden has been steady within the 48-50% range, Trump within the 41-43 point range. No jumps up and down.

I never seen a race as steady as this one has been. During the six month period in 2016, Trump fluctuated between 35-43 while Hillary was between 40-46. You had a trend where Trump trailed by six, took the lead by one, then Hillary short up to a 7 point lead before ending on election day with RCP averages stating she would win the popular vote by 3 points. She won it by 2 well within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points.

So we had a trend at the beginning of 2016 going Hillary's way, then Trump's, back to Hillary's and toward the end of October, first part of November, the trend went back toward Trump. No trends so far in 2020, No 6,7, 8 point fluctuations.

Indeed, the polls have remained consistently in Joe's favor. That's why Trump and McConnell are scared and nervous.

The Republican tax payer funded smear machine has not yet begun to smear VP Biden.

The American electorate does not possess the wherewithal to properly decipher political propaganda.

Johnson Report
Graham Report
Durham Report
Barr Report
vaccine for all

Look I am convinced .... VP Biden is the son of the son of Satan and Mr Trump is America's savior

I think the next four years are going to be very unpleasant for Republicans. With Biden actually trying to fix things Trump broke, the end of the Covid-19 fiasco, the stock market roaring back, and Democrats in the majority in both Houses of Congress, Republican congressmen might as well just go home. The Senate will nuke the filibuster, and that's it: Democrats will do what they want, and Article III gives them the power to make any law they pass judicial-proof.


That's an enumerated power, and nothing short of constitutional amendment can remove it. So congress can make a law that says abortion is legal under any circumstances they want, and say explicitly that no court can challenge it. Or they can do whatever they want with health care or the ACA, and do the same. No need to pack the court, if you can just legislate around it anytime you want. Of course, they do have to not overstep, since they do have to get reelected. But supporting popular things like abortion access and the ACA don't lose elections.

...and that's exactly what red states have done. In Louisiana for example, required a doctor who performed abortions to be registered at a hospital - things like that.