Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Campaign 2020 A Lot Went Wrong for Democrats on Election Night

I don't think Libertarians CAN run at the local level. Whenever their platform is actually implemented on a local level, people are horrified by the results. Like that fire department that privatized and let somebody's house burn down because they had not paid the subscription fee.

My wife just had another good idea: Democratic organizers should offer free housing through January and transportation to Georgia for any Kushner tenant he evicts, as long as they register to vote and then send in a picture of their filled in mail ballot.

I could have told you that. The Northeast and west cost is solid Democrat, most of the south and plain states, Republican. The midwest is kind of split, especially with Pennsylvania looking like it will join Ohio and Indiana soon.

But it also looks like NC and Georgia are headed in the blue direction as is Arizona.

Republicans are going to face an uphill battle in future as demographics change and the Trump bully pulpit disappears. Florida voted twice for Obama and twice for Trump. He'll cling to relevancy for a little while but the adoring crowds are going to dwindle. But republicans are going to find themselves without a clear leader or a clear platform other than making Biden fail.

Democrats are already grooming a future leader and planning for the future...Republicans, as usual, are trying to re-write history and return to the past...

A past that only existed in their cherished fairy tales.

Means tested voter outreach... nice!

I've been hearing about the changing demographics for 20-30 years now. I don't think it has had that much of an effect. What I keep track of is party affiliation which includes all demographics. Puts them into three groups, Republicans, democrats, independents. Those three groups include every demographic.

For this election party affiliation was at 31% Democrat, 29% Republican, 40% independents. Average party affiliation by decade.
1950 - 45% Democrat, 31% Republican, 18% independent
1960 - 46% Democrat, 29% republican, 23% independent
1970 - 46% Democrat, 23% Republican, 29% independent
1980 - 39% Democrat, 29% Republican, 29% independent
1990 - 35% Democrat, 27% Republican, 33% independent
2000 - 33% Democrat, 25% Republican, 35% independent
2010 - 33% Democrat, 25% Republican, 37% independent
2020 or today - 31% Democratic, 29% Republican, 40% independent.

The trend, the GOP has remained in the high 20's for 70 years, the Democrats have been steadily shrinking and independents rising. This despite the demographics. If those who affiliate with the Democratic Party start rising, then I'll believe demographics are beginning to make a difference.

Demographics the difference between the presidency and house election. Those voting for Trump and those voting for Republican congressional candidates

White 57% for Trump, 59% for Republican congressional candidates
Blacks 12% for Trump, 12% for republican congressional candidates
Hispanics 32% for Trump, 36% for Republican congressional candidates
Asian 32% for Trump, 34% for Republican congressional candidates.

There are the ticket splitters broken down via demographics. Via party ID
Democrats 94% Biden, 95% Democratic congressional candidates
Republicans 94% Trump, 94% Republican congressional candidates
Independents 54-41 Biden over Trump, 52-46 Democratic congressional candidates over Republican congressional candidates.

Independents are your ticket splitters which caused the GOP to gain house seats. Considering the Democrats had 236 to defend vs 198 for the republicans.

The above figures aren't the final figures as the vote counting continues. But they're close, no more than a one point change one way or the other is expected to change.

I think, if it hadn’t been for Covid, Trump would be re-elected.
That’s something worth thinking about.

He just might have been.

Republicans are humoring Trump now because they want his base to vote in the Georgia senate runoffs. But I think humoring Trump's madness is going to get so destructive, they might actually lose. The winning strategy right now would be a private Amendment 25 process to put Trump in a nice safe place he can get some rest with the help of some powerful tranquilizers. Pence could then pull off a dignified transition, and Republicans could keep control of the senate.

Instead, we have Wreck-It Ralph at the helm with the collusion of a bunch of Republicans in congress.