Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

That would require necromancy which we, as ethical humans, are sworn not to employ. Those people are dead. As new voters register they simply do not choose a party. Because neither party appeals to them.
And thus the number of independents grows.

People seldom actually change parties or re-register as non partisan.

That's my theory anyway, that partisan politics is going to die a slow painful death.

Point well taken. But I was pointing to the fact the Democrats were able to control the house, the peoples house for 58 out of 62 years. As for the senate it was 52 out of 62 which ended in 1994. That was probably the end of the old political era. Our modern era of polarization, mega, ultra, high partisanship I believe started with the Hastert rule in the House and spread from there.

So 1999 for me is the dividing line. 1999 the senate leaders were Daschle and Lott who worked together as did Mitchell and Dole prior. Then Reid and McConnell entered the senate as leaders and it was all partisanship from that point on in the senate.

I was reading an article from Rasmussen Reports that stated most people made up their minds who they would be voting for last year. I really don't trust Rasmussen much, so I check CNN's exit polling. They didn't go into last year but had the following.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...urce=criticalimapct&utm_medium=email

Before September 73%
In September 11%
In October 8%
In the last week 2%
In the last couple of days 3%.

So perhaps Rasmussen was correct that a majority of Americans knew who they would be voting for last year. Either for or against Trump anyway.

Rasmussen also stated 28% of all Americans weren't confident that their vote would be counted accurately. CNN exit poll differs on this 86% confident, 12% not confident. So take your choice. I prefer CNN as I previously stated I don't trust Rasmussen that much.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

I suspect Rasmussen's polling oversamples Republicans, so finding more of their sample lacking confidence in their vote being counted just is a product of who they are. All of Trump's devotees would believe that, so all they are measuring is the percentage of Trump devotees in their sample. I'm kind of surprised their number is that low!

Rasmussen leans Republican for sure. Nate Silver 538 has ratings of pollsters, They have Rasmussen leaning Republican by 1.5 points. SSRS does CNN's polling, they have a lean of 1.2 Democratic.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

I still believe a lawn sign survey would have been more accurate than the polls have proven themselves not to be.

I haven't really trusted polls for a long time. Telephone polling worked okay when everyone had a landline and everyone was trained to run to the phone every time it rang because it could be important...

It's not like that anymore. Unknown numbers are immediately blocked, spam callers and cell phones have killed the telephone survey.

Polls showed that Biden would win. Biden won. But the "snapshots" they showed us had no connection to reality. Polls grossly underestimated Trump's support and the support for the Republican Party as a whole.

Or perhaps what they failed to show was America's lack of support for the Democratic Party.

Latest House election results:

The Republicans have a net gain of 8 seats so far with 10 still to be determined. Republicans flipped 10 Democratic seats; 1 Libertarian seat, MI-3, Amash who once was a Republican, but switched to the Libertarian Party. The Democrats flipped 3 Republican seats. Last election. 235 Democrats, 199 Republican, 1 Libertarian. Current count, 219 Democrat, 206 Republican 10 still to be determined.

Perhaps New Hampshire sums up this election in a nut shell. NH went to Biden by 70,000 vote, yet elected a Republican Governor and both NH State House and Senate switched from Democratic to Republican control.

New Hampshire is a perfect example of our current electorate. Sad, angry, confused, misinformed and unpredictable.

America is NOT ready for a hard left turn.

But they're not yet ready to submit to a dictator either.

I consider that a positive. And movement in the right direction.

However slight it might be.

I have a feeling, down deep inside, that America has always been

Exactly. Like. This.

I think when you get down to state level, usually, governors and state legislatures have a bit more common sense than at the national level. It may seem that way only because at the state level it's easier to exchange governors and state legislature control than at the national level if they don't listen to the people.

Nationally, the elected officials listen to the party leaders more than the folks back home.


NH was another weird election just like the national. It was get rid of Trump, but let's not give the idea to the Democrats they have a mandate or we favor or endorse their agenda.

Perhaps folks have come to the conclusion to rein in both parties agendas we must have divided government, either intentionally or subconsciously. It's no secret a majority of Americans don't trust either party and view both unfavorably. You have 54% of all Americans who view the Democratic Party unfavorably, 58% who view the Republican Party unfavorably. That is down from last month when the Democrats were view unfavorably by 56% and the GOP by 60%. But that could be just the margin of error talking.